Abstract and Applied Analysis

Research Article

A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

Table 4

Results of case 2 study (b-BPANN and CPSO-BD-BPANN).
HourMarch 10thMarch 11thMarch 12thMarch 13thMarch 14thMarch 15thMarch 16th
b-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNb-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNb-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNb-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNb-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNb-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNb-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANN
0:0055.44%7.46%14.17%9.22%2.34%4.31%20.55%7.49%20.36%9.93%28.58%1.52%12.15%6.10%
0:3031.35%8.98%10.63%6.50%2.78%5.20%10.41%0.31%6.78%5.36%38.38%10.32%3.89%3.49%
1:0038.33%13.33%11.16%7.30%9.88%4.53%2.93%7.04%10.79%13.78%23.89%12.20%5.55%2.32%
1:30108.10%25.31%13.98%4.02%19.37%15.83%27.59%15.12%20.41%15.74%5.86%2.99%12.65%4.53%
2:0020.34%10.06%3.22%7.88%9.94%10.43%23.37%0.49%23.58%6.45%7.77%3.03%16.46%8.15%
2:30130.12%20.47%0.42%4.57%14.58%12.16%7.97%3.46%2.55%1.68%10.11%3.24%5.31%3.74%
3:0040.77%10.86%13.79%6.05%3.44%3.86%8.84%0.92%8.17%4.49%11.74%1.31%4.33%2.08%
3:30104.40%7.55%4.97%10.16%11.90%15.35%12.21%4.55%0.14%11.79%21.14%4.66%4.11%5.05%
4:0061.59%9.50%0.98%6.40%0.09%11.57%8.28%0.23%7.61%15.41%14.58%7.37%5.25%2.94%
4:3058.41%1.35%1.30%9.50%13.03%16.51%10.94%15.72%9.48%15.86%9.37%10.26%5.05%0.62%
5:0054.34%0.46%25.21%27.51%16.67%19.95%19.37%20.07%23.34%28.35%0.33%14.06%4.13%2.63%
5:3032.75%1.08%11.04%16.77%0.58%3.49%2.68%2.48%8.39%7.63%28.09%6.26%5.50%0.86%
6:0030.99%3.47%6.40%2.46%4.16%8.47%6.18%4.94%13.20%10.82%8.64%7.71%5.89%2.83%
6:3033.37%4.88%15.31%17.33%23.12%23.16%12.07%6.91%31.10%31.18%6.05%13.79%6.74%2.55%
7:0023.60%5.03%48.47%38.52%52.12%25.99%25.81%19.02%17.13%26.12%35.61%7.82%5.94%5.10%
7:307.75%10.65%11.05%0.60%5.60%3.25%12.28%2.11%3.86%12.56%12.22%18.31%5.46%15.17%
8:0023.85%0.53%19.84%9.93%11.56%1.79%12.83%14.63%29.62%22.20%12.21%29.46%11.15%19.01%
8:3015.81%0.00%3.20%6.40%0.40%0.22%2.80%10.34%12.23%7.99%7.25%24.89%10.27%13.56%
9:008.94%1.81%13.48%13.76%1.97%1.80%11.34%16.34%24.53%28.72%11.82%23.65%8.18%5.53%
9:300.68%8.68%13.68%9.21%25.92%27.21%7.12%5.58%21.52%15.42%23.71%32.89%4.41%2.04%
10:009.01%0.22%13.11%9.32%32.04%28.01%8.16%0.83%12.87%9.96%2.45%10.40%15.34%17.25%
10:308.67%7.54%15.43%13.78%11.51%11.07%19.60%21.61%15.57%32.45%4.36%0.69%7.17%6.91%
11:004.54%3.91%18.13%20.31%3.67%7.83%11.89%16.93%15.97%4.44%21.61%22.52%14.64%18.62%
11:3014.22%5.61%0.06%4.38%3.14%10.95%12.78%22.71%6.18%4.36%10.97%19.79%5.55%1.72%
12:0040.90%32.98%15.79%20.73%9.76%3.15%7.86%3.28%17.19%9.44%15.25%11.30%3.06%12.98%
12:3027.06%13.71%5.24%13.65%23.55%23.95%5.99%14.70%4.43%11.02%6.40%17.59%0.33%3.29%
13:0024.90%26.18%3.29%19.07%5.07%2.36%1.42%8.81%40.47%40.29%13.67%19.87%1.43%0.06%
13:3076.27%32.56%1.64%13.75%7.83%6.45%20.08%13.82%1.47%6.23%10.36%18.36%2.41%1.38%
14:005.55%13.52%8.32%9.91%2.08%2.83%31.66%25.50%10.06%8.32%1.22%18.63%27.96%31.03%
14:3067.44%46.52%8.83%8.00%7.01%8.19%39.03%41.66%35.00%19.18%13.66%27.83%64.85%62.48%
15:00275.01%21.44%3.85%14.52%2.06%3.19%64.22%56.86%77.53%71.74%0.55%28.32%58.96%9.27%
15:30140.17%39.46%2.46%8.12%4.67%2.01%59.51%37.15%54.91%61.27%19.68%22.68%46.08%45.91%
16:0022.53%31.77%2.11%7.28%12.93%6.16%3.16%24.04%7.48%6.27%13.50%14.99%33.87%42.40%
16:3049.13%3.70%8.21%0.17%10.79%7.43%26.38%29.84%51.92%39.73%8.69%17.06%39.04%16.39%
17:0032.38%36.38%35.70%27.04%33.98%34.21%11.48%1.16%53.53%7.61%3.99%16.83%19.09%19.86%
17:30152.50%30.58%7.55%1.25%14.54%11.39%2.11%14.73%74.38%7.48%9.39%6.66%20.16%19.11%
18:0055.64%10.84%9.87%1.70%5.31%12.30%23.01%24.50%6.92%20.01%29.19%0.63%10.86%17.08%
18:309.43%0.43%8.67%5.72%11.43%15.25%38.11%18.02%33.94%11.71%27.80%15.95%5.05%2.85%
19:000.66%9.04%0.58%6.25%4.35%7.51%9.02%20.59%32.56%16.98%34.77%10.45%16.17%21.01%
19:3030.95%14.70%24.17%26.81%8.60%0.20%21.32%20.31%35.33%18.28%64.81%20.12%3.79%21.08%
20:004.80%13.48%4.14%6.46%4.98%15.79%13.21%3.86%9.53%11.38%31.15%12.71%4.20%8.13%
20:3014.59%1.63%0.47%11.25%3.94%13.22%19.12%20.42%9.74%8.94%15.06%11.43%15.44%6.44%
21:006.65%5.52%13.03%5.98%3.73%4.38%12.70%6.54%15.23%17.62%25.41%1.02%10.97%14.88%
21:3031.61%16.28%13.15%21.97%17.37%22.68%9.55%11.21%5.88%9.71%22.25%41.14%23.23%23.66%
22:004.86%17.70%5.09%0.39%22.19%12.16%23.92%4.29%5.51%0.73%48.24%18.65%5.01%1.15%
22:3043.17%2.93%10.85%4.14%32.82%28.93%14.42%16.26%15.59%12.23%13.65%0.34%1.99%1.04%
23:0018.92%2.22%16.53%13.11%24.69%14.87%3.06%4.85%1.58%8.21%28.98%3.30%8.65%10.58%
23:3027.50%1.04%7.37%9.75%8.07%1.10%3.30%0.92%15.37%14.19%37.81%0.58%6.38%2.45%
Mean43.33%12.36% 10.54% 10.81%11.70%11.10% 15.87%13.40% 20.02%16.28% 17.75%13.45% 12.79%11.40%
Std.49.79%11.90%9.22%8.06%10.76%8.72%13.35%11.84%18.06%14.05%13.29%9.64%14.18%12.86%