Research Article

A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

Table 6

Results of case 3 (CPSO-BD-BPANN and BD-BPANN).

HourJune 9thJune 10thJune 11thJune 12thJune 13thJune 14thJune 15th
CPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANNCPSO-BD-BPANNBD-BPANN

0:0012.29%11.22%14.54%15.41%20.09%19.60%5.11%8.81%17.44%20.99%31.51%28.12%26.39%27.45%
0:3015.07%10.16%3.03%4.07%1.55%3.61%6.43%4.37%0.61%1.35%1.91%0.57%12.25%12.81%
1:001.36%6.70%5.19%0.82%6.88%5.28%13.74%17.28%5.08%2.77%10.94%12.18%16.32%18.37%
1:309.86%14.76%10.30%7.93%40.60%41.50%29.19%29.56%3.09%1.12%13.13%12.54%12.66%12.61%
2:0017.29%15.99%5.11%9.22%3.45%0.48%6.63%3.60%16.53%16.90%20.07%18.27%4.32%0.24%
2:3039.00%43.07%13.41%9.43%18.89%27.78%10.17%9.08%5.09%4.57%8.05%5.49%17.02%16.14%
3:0033.63%11.92%7.08%0.02%19.54%23.50%13.50%17.15%20.50%17.30% 3.64%16.44%11.94%
3:3024.38%19.43%16.97%6.21%1.46%6.23%4.42%3.21%10.73%2.57%5.73%6.79%1.71%0.66%
4:0036.83%39.95%6.42%12.90%6.73%9.43%3.34%14.21%3.45%3.99%29.23%28.21%7.72%8.94%
4:3034.57%33.85%4.79%14.48%7.03%3.57%7.75%6.79%6.03%11.46%19.84%14.09%6.88%5.50%
5:0032.59%33.36%1.24%20.12%3.84%1.80%9.47%7.78%6.17%8.43%1.03%1.60%6.32%6.10%
5:3020.75%9.02%2.77%21.97%0.51%11.45%1.09%2.76%13.18%17.09%8.99%6.45%6.29%5.03%
6:0015.00%3.43%23.02%37.68%24.64%31.48%30.19%35.42%23.10%30.46%4.85%2.71%27.41%27.51%
6:3031.25%19.55%5.34%19.86%2.15%2.26%17.81%20.12%2.32%8.36%4.45%7.45%46.95%49.06%
7:0019.06%3.29%4.18%16.84%15.93%11.49%22.88%22.35%1.61%3.32%8.57%13.41%25.85%27.10%
7:306.38%1.10%1.80%21.75%5.22%2.06%14.23%6.42%9.71%20.03%13.45%17.33%28.27%27.69%
8:006.58%11.41%3.77%19.70%14.58%1.20%2.07%2.36%13.74%19.36%12.43%9.92%18.95%20.68%
8:3012.68%28.89%17.41%44.62%14.24%6.44%1.85%10.31%3.59%5.15%17.24%15.48%3.42%0.05%
9:007.82%13.47%2.75%3.70%1.31%3.05%7.57%9.11%2.73%8.81%9.91%9.81%18.68%2.45%
9:301.03%11.93%0.03%6.49%10.61%12.25%3.50%14.89%0.70%6.90%8.42%9.20%9.47%1.94%
10:004.42%0.36%0.55%2.07%2.39%1.50%1.33%8.95%2.23%3.81%2.94%1.34%13.35%13.02%
10:309.06%5.37%1.42%1.65%3.32%4.14%6.42%3.06%0.65%2.82%1.59%4.06%5.42%3.38%
11:004.16%3.75%1.07%2.28%5.15%7.08%5.24%11.44%4.50%7.22%16.90%22.73%1.19%5.85%
11:301.15%3.38%0.85%2.95%22.49%22.50%4.41%10.04%2.18%1.61%6.75%1.71%2.79%3.11%
12:000.68%3.41%1.14%1.92%2.46%2.31%8.23%5.74%2.91%2.95%9.45%7.11%4.00%4.59%
12:304.37%7.50%0.93%0.78%0.06%0.38%4.11%9.18%4.29%5.76%0.19%0.24%10.95%13.49%
13:003.34%1.57%0.74%0.94%6.60%5.89%16.90%22.12%1.41%1.95%1.38%3.32%0.07%
13:302.21%0.87%4.40%5.68%5.32%5.14%8.91%16.25%3.87%4.18%2.72%6.87%4.88%2.82%
14:0016.29%22.04%5.62%4.47%3.03%2.18%4.84%12.05%6.16%6.49%0.02%3.74%2.56%4.48%
14:304.70%6.30%5.88%4.44%8.58%4.56%5.26%2.28%4.96%4.81%1.45%0.56%14.13%17.55%
15:002.04%5.44%5.26%2.13%1.38%0.26%1.59%6.79%6.54%8.19%0.63%1.19%5.70%4.69%
15:304.70%1.98%1.98%4.84%1.12%0.04%0.32%6.17%0.07%0.59%1.18%3.38%1.35%3.40%
16:008.81%4.94%2.93%5.31%3.07%4.59%0.04%1.13%1.67%2.84%1.15%0.14%14.69%11.93%
16:301.12%6.70%6.38%5.66%7.86%7.32%4.54%2.86%2.97%4.23%13.74%12.63%11.71%3.39%
17:0020.14%12.21%27.93%24.94%12.63%11.67%11.90%9.90%30.67%32.36%17.15%15.66%21.65%17.29%
17:3017.97%16.79%24.37%13.52%9.64%8.30%24.50%20.87%16.07%16.18%21.20%18.14%21.31%17.19%
18:004.35%2.75%7.25%4.19%11.60%14.47%11.11%12.84%1.36%0.87%16.36%18.08%24.94%21.02%
18:3024.48%37.92%21.53%10.06%9.49%16.53%0.60%7.90%10.99%19.32%12.66%11.89%7.53%2.23%
19:0028.35%21.10%28.07%15.35%21.86%26.74%7.23%14.78%17.96%9.97%3.77%3.15%20.03%27.97%
19:306.20%5.07%8.98%4.39%1.88%3.58%1.09%11.25%1.47%6.02%7.00%7.26%3.09%3.57%
20:004.55%6.07%5.66%10.61%2.41%3.10%17.43%25.56%8.04%4.89%14.47%18.14%5.53%10.08%
20:300.56%2.75%0.03%5.08%0.16%2.40%2.17%11.28%0.12%3.10%3.48%4.83%2.78%0.47%
21:009.62%2.92%7.59%0.16%9.37%12.04%1.76%0.42%3.91%2.39%6.45%3.44%2.31%2.02%
21:3015.38%15.27%3.18%0.52%6.74%5.70%14.05%9.54%0.73%0.73%8.38%6.56%6.23%2.68%
22:004.93%1.51%12.04%9.76%2.99%4.80%8.49%8.92%24.36%25.88%3.49%5.67%11.75%11.21%
22:3020.98%20.32%26.80%36.87%30.95%31.42%11.34%6.78%2.75%8.71%14.17%13.91%15.96%15.20%
23:0013.76%15.57%1.64%6.07%8.38%8.11%10.64%9.74%14.38%14.31%10.63%8.04%17.02%17.48%
23:3020.34%14.41%10.43%1.99%4.65%9.48%30.92%27.80%27.24%21.48%9.26%3.88%0.28%0.10%

Mean13.25%12.31% 7.79% 10.04%8.85% 9.39%9.09% 11.28%7.71% 9.05%9.18%8.98% 11.80%10.89%
Std.10.98%11.05%7.95%10.27%8.71%9.64%7.99%7.86%7.85%8.18%7.45%7.15%9.60%10.28%