A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

<div>Evolution of the percentage of voting intention and abstention in CIS surveys from October 2002 until January 2004, the last one before elections of March 14, 2004 [<a href="/journals/aaa/2015/387839/#B6">12</a>]. Only in April 2003, the PSOE voting intention was above the one of the PP. According to [<a href="/journals/aaa/2015/387839/#B8">2</a>], this happened because public opinion in Spain was more widely opposed to the country’s involvement in the Iraq war at the beginning of 2003.</div>

Abstract and Applied Analysis

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Figure 1: A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach 

Figure 1 | A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach 