A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

<div>Probabilistic fitting. The red points and the black points determine the mean and the 95% confidence interval of the CIS surveys data, respectively. The black lines determine the 95% confidence bands obtained by the model. The blue line is the model mean. The model captures the uncertainty of the data. Data for PSOE and PP in April 2003 do not lie completely inside the band, probably because of citizen protests related to the war in Iraq.</div>

Abstract and Applied Analysis

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Figure 4: A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach 

Figure 4 | A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach 