A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

Table 1

Percentage of voting intention and abstention in CIS surveys from Oct. 2002 until Jan. 2004, the last one before elections of Mar. 14, 2004 [12].

	PSOE	PP	Other political parties	Abstention
Oct. 2002	27.83	30.96	15.81	25.40
Jan. 2003	27.76	29.61	17.03	25.60
Apr. 2003	29.31	27.68	17.21	25.80
Jul. 2003	26.06	30.50	17.47	25.97
Oct. 2003	26.16	31.97	17.27	24.60
Jan. 2004	26.32	31.37	16.65	25.66