Advances in Emergency Medicine The latest articles from Hindawi Publishing Corporation © 2014 , Hindawi Publishing Corporation . All rights reserved. Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of Hospital Occupancy: When Do Dwindling Hospital Beds Cause ED Gridlock? Tue, 15 Jul 2014 08:38:11 +0000 Objectives. The time emergency department (ED) patients spend from presentation to admittance is known as their length of stay (LOS). This study aimed to quantify the inpatient occupancy rate (InptOcc)/ED LOS relationship and develop a methodology for identifying resource-allocation triggers using InptOcc-LOS association-curve inflection points. Methods. This study was conducted over 200 consecutive days at a 700-bed hospital with an annual ED census of approximately 50,000 using multivariate spline (piecewise) regression to model the InptOcc/LOS relationship while adjusting for confounding covariates. Nonlinear modeling was used to assess for InptOcc/LOS associations and determine the inflection point where InptOcc profoundly impacted LOS. Results. At lower InptOcc, there was no association. Once InptOcc reached ≥88%, there was a strong InptOcc/LOS association; each 1% InptOcc increase predicted a 16-minute (95% CI, 12–20 minutes) LOS prolongation, while the confounder-adjusted analysis showed each 1% InptOcc increase >89% precipitating a 13-minute (95% CI, 10–16 minutes) LOS prolongation. Conclusions. The study hospital’s InptOcc was a significant predictor of prolonged ED LOS beyond the identified inflection point. Spline regression analysis identified a clear inflection point in the InptOcc-LOS curve that potentially identified a point at which to optimize inpatient bed availability to prevent increased costs of prolonged LOS. Lori Whelan, Boyd Burns, Michael Brantley, Tyler Haas, Annette O. Arthur, and Stephen H. Thomas Copyright © 2014 Lori Whelan et al. All rights reserved. The State of Healthcare Disaster Plans in New Zealand and the Sultanate of Oman: An International Comparative Analysis Sun, 22 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000 Aim. The aim of this study was to carry out an audit of healthcare plans in New Zealand and Oman. Methods. The study utilizes a deductive content analysis method. Written plans from New Zealand District Health Boards (DHBs) and the Omani secondary and tertiary hospitals were analyzed. A checklist was used to score the plans against twelve elements which are command and control, hazard analysis, surge capability, communication, standard operating procedures (SOPs), life-line backups, public and media, training, welfare, coordination, and recovery. Results. There were 14 plans from New Zealand and 7 plans from Oman analysed. The overall coverage of New Zealand plans was 67.5% compared to 53.3% in Oman. Plans from both countries scored similarly in “command and control,” “hazard analysis,” “surge,” and “communication” elements. Omani plans scored lower than those of New Zealand in “media and the publicv” “training,” “coordination,” and “recovery.” Both countries scored very low in addressing the welfare of responders. Conclusion. This study highlighted the value of health emergency plans in New Zealand as reflected by the high score of DHBs’ coordination. Therefore, a similar approach in Oman will enhance emergency preparedness. Responders’ welfare is an issue that needs to be addressed by emergency preparedness plans in both countries. Sultan Al-Shaqsi, Robin Gauld, David McBride, Ammar Al-Kashmiri, and Abdullah Al-Harthy Copyright © 2014 Sultan Al-Shaqsi et al. All rights reserved. Validation of a Decision Rule and Derivation of a Modified Rule to Obtain Chest Radiograph in Patients with Nontraumatic Chest Pain in the Emergency Department Thu, 12 Jun 2014 07:42:23 +0000 Objectives. We sought to validate and refine a decision rule for chest X-ray (CXR) utilization in nontraumatic chest pain (CP) patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Methods. Retrospective review of ED patients presenting with CP who had CXR performed during three nonconsecutive months was performed. The presence of 18 variables derived from history and exam was ascertained. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the original rule were calculated. Refinement using additional variables was performed. Results. 967 patient charts were reviewed. 89.9% of CXR were normal, 5.2% had insignificant findings, and 5.1% had significant findings. Application of the criteria had a sensitivity/specificity of 74%/59% and a PPV/ NPV of 9%/98%. Rule modification to obtain CXR for age ≥ 65 years, history of congestive heart failure and alcohol abuse, and exam findings of decreased breath sounds, fever, and tachypnea maintained sensitivity while improving specificity to 69%. Conclusions. Most CP patients have normal CXRs. Narrowing a decision rule to obtain CXR in patients with age ≥ 65 years, history of congestive heart failure and alcohol abuse, and exam findings of decreased breath sounds, fever, and tachypnea maintain sensitivity while improving specificity and NPV. Case Newsom, Rebecca Jeanmonod, Karl Weller, Nabil Boutros, Mark Reiter, and Donald Jeanmonod Copyright © 2014 Case Newsom et al. All rights reserved. Common Presenting Problems for Young People Attending the Emergency Department Tue, 25 Mar 2014 09:23:11 +0000 Objective. To determine the common presenting problems for young people attending the emergency department. Design. A retrospective review of electronic patient records of all young people between the ages of 13 and 17 who attended a UK University Hospital ED between 07/02/2007 and 06/02/2008 (). Results. All emergency department attendances for young people over a one-year period were studied in order to determine the common presenting problems. There were a total of 10455 attendances by 8303 young people. The presenting problem in 7505 (71.8%) was classified as injury. Of the remainder the commonest presenting problems reported for young people were abdominal pain (480, 16.3%), self-harm (314, 10.6%), fits, faints and funny turns (308, 10.4%), breathing difficulty (213, 7.2%), and intoxication (178, 6.0%). Ten presenting problems accounted for 72% of noninjury related attendances. Conclusions. Clinical guidelines and pathways developed for young people attending the emergency department should target the commonest presenting problems. In our cohort ten presenting problems account for almost three-quarters of all noninjury attendances for young people. The presenting problems are different to those described in younger children in previous studies. These results will inform the development of clinical pathways in order to improve emergency care. Dhurgshaarna Shanmugavadivel, Rebecca Sands, and Damian Wood Copyright © 2014 Dhurgshaarna Shanmugavadivel et al. All rights reserved.