About this Journal Submit a Manuscript Table of Contents
Advances in Mechanical Engineering
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 234571, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/234571
Research Article

A Fuzzy Collaborative Forecasting Approach for Forecasting the Productivity of a Factory

Department of Industrial Engineering and Systems Management, Feng Chia University, 100 Wenhwa Road, Seatwen, Taichung 408, Taiwan

Received 6 February 2013; Accepted 3 July 2013

Academic Editor: Jerry Fuh

Copyright © 2013 Yi-Chi Wang and Toly Chen. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Productivity is always considered as one of the most basic and important factors to the competitiveness of a factory. For this reason, all factories have sought to enhance productivity. To achieve this goal, we first need to estimate the productivity. However, there is considerable degree of uncertainty in productivity. For this reason, a fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach is proposed in this study to forecast the productivity of a factory. First, a learning model is established to estimate the future productivity. Subsequently, the learning model is converted into three equivalent nonlinear programming problems to be solved from various viewpoints. The fuzzy productivity forecasts by different experts may not be equal and should therefore be aggregated. To this end, the fuzzy intersection and back propagation network approach is applied. The practical example of a dynamic random access memory (DRAM) factory is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.