| Table 6: Projected changes in 5-, 50-, and 95-percentile annual and seasonal temperatures (°C) from 1961–90 to 2071–2100 for Svalbard Airport and Bjørnøya. |
| (a) Empirical-statistical downscaling. |
| | Percentile |
Svalbard Airport/Longyearbyen | Bjørnøya | | Annual | Winter | Spring | Summer | Autumn | Annual | Winter | Spring | Summer | Autumn |
| | 5% | 4.7 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 4.7 | | 50% | 6.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 5.2 | | 95% | 8.5 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 |
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| (b) Regional climate models. |
| | Percentile |
Svalbard Airport/Longyearbyen | Bjørnøya | | Annual | Winter | Spring | Summer | Autumn | Annual | Winter | Spring | Summer | Autumn |
| | 5% | 4.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | | 50% | 6.6 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | | 95% | 6.6 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
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