About this Journal Submit a Manuscript Table of Contents
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2010 (2010), Article ID 915303, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303
Research Article

Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd. MS50F, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
2Divecha Center for Climate Change, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India
3Climate Central, Inc., 895 Emerson St., Palo Alto, CA 94301, USA
4Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, 94551-0808, USA
5Google, Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA

Received 31 December 2009; Revised 14 April 2010; Accepted 22 April 2010

Academic Editor: Song Y. Hong

Copyright © 2010 Michael F. Wehner et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, “Atmospheric science: changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment,” Science, vol. 309, no. 5742, pp. 1844–1846, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  2. W. M. Frank and G. S. Young, “The interannual variability of tropical cyclones,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 135, no. 10, pp. 3587–3598, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  3. G. J. Holland and P. J. Webster, “Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, vol. 365, no. 1860, pp. 2695–2716, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. K. Emanuel, “Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years,” Nature, vol. 436, no. 7051, pp. 686–688, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  5. J. B. Elsner, J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, “The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones,” Nature, vol. 455, no. 7209, pp. 92–95, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, P. J. Gleckler et al., “Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 103, no. 38, pp. 13905–13910, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  7. N. P. Gillett, P. A. Stott, and B. D. Santer, “Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 35, no. 9, Article ID L09707, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. W. M. Gray, “Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation,” in Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, Royal Meterological Society, Bracknell, UK, August 1979.
  9. S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, “Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models,” Tellus, Series A, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 428–443, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. C. Covey, K. M. AchutaRao, S. J. Lambert, and K. E. Taylor, “Intercomparison of present and future climates simulated by coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs,” Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Report 66, 2000, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory UCRL-ID-140325.
  11. L. Bengtsson, M. Botzet, and M. Esch, “Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model,” Tellus, Series A, vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 175–196, 1995. View at Scopus
  12. L. Bengtsson, M. Botzet, and M. Esch, “Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?” Tellus, Series A, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 57–73, 1996. View at Scopus
  13. L. Bengtsson, K. I. Hodges, M. Esch et al., “How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?” Tellus, Series A, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 539–561, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. T. R. Knutson and R. E. Tuleya, “Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization,” Journal of Climate, vol. 17, no. 18, pp. 3477–3495, 2004. View at Scopus
  15. T. R. Knutson, J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, I. M. Held, and R. E. Tuleya, “Simulation of the recent multidecadal increase of Atlantic hurricane activity using an 18-km-grid regional model,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 88, no. 10, pp. 1549–1565, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. M. A. Bender, T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, et al., “Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes,” Science, vol. 327, no. 5964, pp. 454–458, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. K. Oouchi, J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda, “Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: frequency and wind intensity analyses,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, vol. 84, no. 2, pp. 259–276, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. M. Zhao, I. M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, “Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM,” Journal of Climate, vol. 22, no. 24, pp. 6653–6678, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. J. Yoshimura and M. Sugi, “Tropical cyclone climatology in a high-resolution AGCM—impacts of SST warming and CO2 increase,” Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, vol. 1, pp. 133–136, 2.
  20. S.-J. Lin and R. B. Rood, “Multidimensional flux-form semi-Lagrangian transport schemes,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 124, no. 9, pp. 2046–2070, 1996. View at Scopus
  21. S.-J. Lin and R. B. Rood, “An explicit flux-form semi-Lagrangian shallow-water model on the sphere,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 123, no. 544, pp. 2477–2498, 1997. View at Scopus
  22. S.-J. Lin, “A finite-volume integration method for computing pressure gradient force in general vertical coordinates,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 123, no. 542, pp. 1749–1762, 1997. View at Scopus
  23. S.-J. Lin, “A ‘vertically Lagrangian’ finite-volume dynamical core for global models,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 132, no. 10, pp. 2293–2307, 2004. View at Scopus
  24. W. L. Gates, “AMIP: the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project,” Bulletin—American Meteorological Society, vol. 73, no. 12, pp. 1962–1970, 1992. View at Scopus
  25. K. Taylor, D. Williamson, and F. Zwiers, “The sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration boundary conditions for AMIP II simulations,” PCMDI Report 60, 2000, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Report UCRL-MI-123395.
  26. W. D. Collins, P. J. Rasch, B. A. Boville et al., “The formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3),” Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 11, pp. 2144–2161, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. A. A. Mirin and W. B. Sawyer, “A scalable implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core in the community atmosphere model,” International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 203–212, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. C. E. Leith, “Climate response and fluctuation dissipation,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 32, no. 10, pp. 2022–2026, 1975. View at Scopus
  29. A. Arakawa and V. R. Lamb, “Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model,” in Methods in Computational Physics, J. Chang, Ed., vol. 17, pp. 173–265, Academic Press, New York, NY, USA, 1977.
  30. P. J. Klotzbach and W. M. Gray, “Twenty-five years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts (1984–2008),” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 36, Article ID L09711, 5 pages, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  31. P. J. Klotzbach and W. M. Gray, The Tropical Meterology Project, http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/.
  32. T. E. Larow, Y.-K. Lim, D. W. Shin, E. P. Chassignet, and S. Cocke, “Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane simulations,” Journal of Climate, vol. 21, no. 13, pp. 3191–3206, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  33. C. D. Hoyos, P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, “Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity,” Science, vol. 312, no. 5770, pp. 94–97, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart, Eds., IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000, http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/.
  35. G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, T. Delworth et al., “The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climatic change research,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 88, no. 9, pp. 1383–1394, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. T. M. Smith and R. W. Reynolds, “A global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880 –1997),” Journal of Climate, vol. 18, no. 12, pp. 2021–2036, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. N. A. Rayner, P. Brohan, D. E. Parker et al., “Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in Situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset,” Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 446–469, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  38. K. A. Emanuel, “The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate,” Nature, vol. 326, no. 6112, pp. 483–485, 1987. View at Scopus
  39. T. R. Knutson, J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, G. A. Vecchi, and I. M. Held, “Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 1, no. 6, pp. 359–364, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  40. K. A. Emanuel, “Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 52, no. 22, pp. 3969–3976, 1995. View at Scopus
  41. G. A. Vecchi and B. J. Soden, “Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity,” Nature, vol. 450, no. 7172, pp. 1066–1070, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  42. S.-P. Xie, C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, “Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall,” Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 966–986, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  43. S. Kusunoki, J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, K. Oouchi, and A. Noda, “Global warming projection by an atmospheric global model with 20-Km grid,” Journal of Disaster Research, vol. 3, pp. 4–14, 2008.
  44. M. Sugi, H. Murakami, and J. Yoshimura, “A reduction in global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming,” Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, vol. 5, pp. 164–167, 2009.
  45. M. Zhao, I. M. Held, and G. A. Vecchi, “Retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of SST anomalies,” Monthly Weather Review. In press.
  46. B. D. Santer, M. F. Wehner, T. M. L. Wigley et al., “Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes,” Science, vol. 301, no. 5632, pp. 479–483, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  47. L. Oliker, J. Carter, M. Wehner et al., “Leading computational methods on scalar and vector HEC platforms,” in Proceedings of the ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference (SC '05), pp. 62–74, November 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus