175296.fig.008
Figure 8: The Svalbard MAAT series 1912–2010, redrawn from [4]. The grey line shows annual values, and the blue line shows the simple running 7 yr average of these original data. MAAT values modelled from three cycles only are shown by the green line. The coefficient of determination ( ) for the hindcasting period is 0.47 ( ). The linear temperature trend 1912–2010 is 0.23°C per decade. This overall trend is assumed to continue beyond 2010 when plotting the forecasted data. As mentioned above, this trend may be unrealisticly high, being influenced by the data series starting at a low and ending at a high value.