Table 6: Projected changes in 5-, 50-, and 95-percentile annual and seasonal temperatures (°C) from 1961–90 to 2071–2100 for Svalbard Airport and Bjørnøya.
(a) Empirical-statistical downscaling.

Percentile Svalbard Airport/LongyearbyenBjørnøya
AnnualWinterSpringSummerAutumnAnnualWinterSpringSummerAutumn

5%4.76.96.01.55.95.28.06.72.44.7
50%6.89.47.62.57.36.27.87.63.95.2
95%8.511.49.53.99.59.012.79.96.47.1

(b) Regional climate models.

Percentile Svalbard Airport/LongyearbyenBjørnøya
AnnualWinterSpringSummerAutumnAnnualWinterSpringSummerAutumn

5%4.88.15.32.06.44.88.95.22.63.1
50%6.610.46.42.85.64.15.54.02.23.1
95%6.611.97.33.35.14.44.87.82.93.4