- About this Journal ·
- Abstracting and Indexing ·
- Aims and Scope ·
- Annual Issues ·
- Article Processing Charges ·
- Author Guidelines ·
- Bibliographic Information ·
- Citations to this Journal ·
- Contact Information ·
- Editorial Board ·
- Editorial Workflow ·
- Free eTOC Alerts ·
- Publication Ethics ·
- Recently Accepted Articles ·
- Reviewers Acknowledgment ·
- Submit a Manuscript ·
- Subscription Information ·
- Table of Contents
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2012 (2012), Article ID 404876, 9 pages
Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones
Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
Received 12 March 2012; Accepted 30 May 2012
Academic Editor: Jiming Jin
Copyright © 2012 Nir Y. Krakauer. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- R. E. Livezey, K. Y. Vinnikov, M. M. Timofeyeva, R. Tinker, and H. M. van den Dool, “Estimation and extrapolation of climate normals and climatic trends,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 46, no. 11, pp. 1759–1776, 2007.
- P. C. D. Milly, J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark et al., “Climate change: stationarity is dead: whither water management?” Science, vol. 319, no. 5863, pp. 573–574, 2008.
- D. Wyman and H. L. Flint, “Plant hardiness zone maps,” Arnoldia, vol. 27, no. 6, pp. 53–56, 1967.
- C. Daly, M. P. Widrlechner, M. D. Halbleib, J. I. Smith, and W. P. Gibson, “Development of a new USDA plant hardiness zone map for the United States,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 242–264, 2012.
- R. D. Magarey, D. M. Borchert, and J. W. Schlegel, “Global plant hardiness zones for phytosanitary risk analysis,” Scientia Agricola, vol. 65, pp. 54–59, 2008.
- D. J. Nowak and R. A. Rowntree, “History and range of Norway maple,” Journal of Arboriculture, vol. 16, no. 11, pp. 291–296, 1990.
- M. Skinner, B. L. Parker, S. Gouli, and T. Ashikaga, “Regional responses of hemlock woolly adelgid (Homoptera: Adelgidae) to low temperatures,” Environmental Entomology, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 523–528, 2003.
- G. R. Johnson, C. Frank Sorensen, J. Bradley St Clair, and C. Richard Cronn, “Pacific Northwest forest tree seed zones,” Native Plants Journal, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 131–140, 2004.
- K. P. Vogel, M. R. Schmer, and R. B. Mitchell, “Plant adaptation regions: ecological and climatic classification of plant materials,” Rangeland Ecology and Management, vol. 58, no. 3, pp. 315–319, 2005.
- T. R. Karl, G. Kukla, V. N. Razuvayev, M. J. Changery, R. G. Quayle, and R. R. Heim, “Global warming: evidence for asym-metric diurnal temperature change,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 18, no. 12, pp. 2253–2256, 1991.
- P. Zhai, A. Sun, F. Ren, X. Liu, B. Gao, and Q. Zhang, “Changes of climate extremes in China,” Climatic Change, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 203–218, 1999.
- P. C. Knappenberger, P. J. Michaels, and R. E. Davis, “Nature of observed temperature changes across the United States during the 20th century,” Climate Research, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 45–53, 2001.
- D. W. McKenney, M. Hutchinson, P. Papadopol, K. Campbell, and K. Lawrence, “The generation of USDA-equivalent extreme minimum temperature models and a comparison with Canada's plant hardiness zones,” Canadian Journal of Plant Science, vol. 86, no. 2, pp. 511–523, 2006.
- S. S. P. Shen, A. B. Gurung, H. S. Oh, T. Shu, and D. R. Easterling, “The twentieth century contiguous US temperature changes indicated by daily data and higher statistical moments,” Climatic Change, vol. 104, no. 3-4, pp. 287–317, 2011.
- J. Hansen and S. Lebedeff, “Global trends of measured surface air temperature,” Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 92, pp. 13345–13372, 1987.
- I. Durre, M. J. Menne, and R. S. Vose, “Strategies for evaluating quality assurance procedures,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 47, no. 6, pp. 1785–1791, 2008.
- I. Durre, M. J. Menne, B. E. Gleason, T. G. Houston, and R. S. Vose, “Comprehensive automated quality assurance of daily surface observations,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 49, no. 8, pp. 1615–1633, 2010.
- J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, B. E. Gleason et al., “An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly mean temperature data set, version 3,” Journal of Geophysical Research D, vol. 116, no. 19, Article ID D19121, 2011.
- D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, and J. H. Lawrimore, “United States Historical Climatology Network daily temperature, precipitation, and snow data for 1871–1997,” Tech. Rep. ORNL/CDIAC-118, NDP-070, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centerr, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn, USA, 1999.
- O. Troyanskaya, M. Cantor, G. Sherlock et al., “Missing value estimation methods for DNA microarrays,” Bioinformatics, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 520–525, 2001.
- M. Kurucz, A. A. Andrs Benczr, and K. Csalogny, “Methods for large scale SVD with missing values,” in Proceedings of the 13th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pp. 7–14, San Jose, Calif, USA, 2007.
- G. H. Golub and C. F. van Loan, Matrix Computation, Johns Hopkins University Press, 3rd edition, 1996.
- E. Ott, B. R. Hunt, I. Szunyogh et al., “A local ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation,” Tellus, Series A, vol. 56, no. 5, pp. 415–428, 2004.
- N. Y. Krakauer and I. Fung, “Mapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous United States,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1111–1120, 2008.
- N. A. Cressie, Statistics for Spatial Data, Wiley, 1993.
- H. J. Woltring, “A Fortran package for generalized, cross-validatory spline smoothing and differentiation,” Advances in Engineering Software, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 104–113, 1986.
- C. M. Hurvich, J. S. Simonoff, and C. L. Tsai, “Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 271–293, 1998.
- G. Wahba, “Bayesian “confidence intervals” for the cross-validated smoothing spline,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 133–150, 1983.
- W. S. Cleveland, S. J. Devlin, and E. Grosse, “Regression by local fitting. Methods, properties, and computational algorithms,” Journal of Econometrics, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 87–114, 1988.
- P. Craven and G. Wahba, “Smoothing noisy data with spline functions—estimating the correct degree of smoothing by the method of generalized cross-validation,” Numerische Mathematik, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 377–403, 1978.
- D. R. Easterling, J. L. Evans, P. Y. Groisman, T. R. Karl, K. E. Kunkel, and P. Ambenje, “Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 81, no. 3, pp. 417–425, 2000.
- T. G. Huntington, G. A. Hodgkins, and R. W. Dudley, “Historical trend in river ice thickness and coherence in hydroclimatological trends in Maine,” Climatic Change, vol. 61, no. 1-2, pp. 217–236, 2003.
- T. G. Huntington, A. D. Richardson, K. J. McGuire, and K. Hayhoe, “Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems,” Canadian Journal of Forest Research, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 199–212, 2009.
- A. K. Betts, “Vermont climate change indicators,” Weather, Climate, and Society, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 106–115, 2011.
- P. Steenhof and E. Sparling, “The role of codes, standards, and related instruments in facilitating adaptation to climate change,” Climate Change Adaptation in Developed Nations, vol. 42, pp. 243–254, 2011.
- A. T. DeGaetano and M. D. Shulman, “A climatic classification of plant hardiness in the United States and Canada,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 51, no. 3-4, pp. 333–351, 1990.
- D. W. McKenney, M. F. Hutchinson, J. L. Kesteven, and L. A. Venier, “Canada's plant hardiness zones revisited using modern climate interpolation techniques,” Canadian Journal of Plant Science, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 129–143, 2001.
- D. W. McKenney, J. H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, K. Campbell, and M. F. Hutchinson, “Beyond traditional hardiness zones: using climate envelopes to map plant range limits,” BioScience, vol. 57, no. 11, pp. 929–937, 2007.
- C. D. Canham and R. Q. Thomas, “Frequency, not relative abundance, of temperate tree species varies along climate gradients in eastern North America,” Ecology, vol. 91, no. 12, pp. 3433–3440, 2010.
- Jin Huang, H. M. Van den Dool, and A. G. Barnston, “Long-lead seasonal temperature prediction using optimal climate normals,” Journal of Climate, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 809–817, 1996.
- D. W. Mckenney, J. H. Pedlar, R. B. Rood, and D. Price, “Revisiting projected shifts in the climate envelopes of North American trees using updated general circulation models,” Global Change Biology, vol. 17, no. 8, pp. 2720–2730, 2011.
- M. E. Mann and J. Park, “Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: model versus observations,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 23, no. 10, pp. 1111–1114, 1996.
- R. C. Balling, P. J. Michaels, and P. C. Knappenberger, “Analysis of winter and summer warming rates in gridded temperature time series,” Climate Research, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 175–181, 1998.
- A. R. Stine, P. Huybers, and I. Y. Fung, “Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature,” Nature, vol. 457, no. 7228, pp. 435–440, 2009.
- A. K. Betts, “Seasonal climate transitions in New England,” Weather, vol. 66, no. 9, pp. 245–248, 2011.
- J. G. Charney, A. Arakawa, D. James Baker, et al., “Carbon dioxide and climate: a scientific assessment,” Tech. Rep., Climate Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, USA, 1979.
- R. Bintanja, R. G. Graversen, and W. Hazeleger, “Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 4, no. 11, pp. 758–761, 2011.
- J. W. Eaton, D. Bateman, and S. Hauberg, GNU Octave Manual Version 3., Network Theory Limited, 2008, http://www.network-theory.co.uk/octave/manual/.