Figure 1: (a) First EOF of interannual DJF rainfall variability calculated over the region (50°S–10°S; 280°E–330°E) (dashed box) for observations. Contour interval: 0.25 mm/day. The map is constructed by linear regression of the precipitation field onto the time series associated with the EOF. (b) Idem (a) for the HadCM3 20thcentury run. (c) Correlation between time series associated with the EOF shown in (a) and SST anomalies for observations. Contour interval: 0.1. Correlation values higher (lower) than 0.35 (−0.35) are significant at a 5% level according to a twotailed Student ttest. (d) Correlation between time series associated with the EOF shown in (b) and SST anomalies for the HadCM3 20thcentury run. Contour interval: 0.1. Correlation values higher (lower) than 0.2 (−0.2) are significant at a 5% level according to a twotailed Student ttest. 
