The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach

<table>Values of equitable threat score (ETS) for reflectivity thresholds of ((a), (b)) 35 dBZ and ((c), (d)) 45 dBZ as a function of forecast times (UTC) from the convective-scale FixedPhysics and MultiPhysics 36-member ensembles (thin lines) and ensemble mean (thick lines).  The independent 3DVAR analyses of reflectivity are used as observations.</table>

Advances in Meteorology

fig8

Figure 8

Figure 8: The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach 

Figure 8 | The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach 