Projection of the Spatially Explicit Land Use/Cover Changes in China, 2010–2100

Table 1

Projected change rates of GDP and population (POP) in China, 2011–2100.

		2011–2015	2016–2020	2021–2025	2026–2030	2031–2040	2041–2050	2051–2075	2076–2100
GDP/%	BAU	7.90	7.00	6.60	5.90	5.60	5.50	3.90	2.40
	REG	8.30	7.35	6.93	6.20	5.88	5.78	4.10	2.52
	CES	7.51	6.65	6.27	5.61	5.32	5.23	3.71	2.28
POP/%	BAU	6.24	4.10	1.67	−0.14	−1.04	−3.99	−5.54	−5.12
	REG	6.55	4.30	1.75	−0.13	−0.99	−3.79	−5.26	−4.87
	CES	5.93	3.89	1.59	−0.15	−1.10	−4.19	−5.82	−5.38

Note: the data come from references [25–27], and the change rates of GDP were expanded to 2100 according to the historical changing trend. Under the CES scenario, the rates of population growth rate and GDP increase are 5% lower than that under the BAU scenario, while they are 5% higher under the REG scenario than the BAU scenario.