Advances in Meteorology

Research Article

An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April

Table 1

The SBER procedure for selecting predictors. The predictor in bold is selected for elimination in each step. The and value are for the correlation between the regressed and the observed TC counts after a predictor is eliminated. “~” presents the list of predictors retained in the previous step.
Predictors value
All 9 predictors0.63228.67 × 10−7
~−AMM0.63222.71 × 10 −7
~−NINO120.61646.21 × 10−7
~−AMO0.63222.71 × 10−7
~−NAO0.62683.60 × 10−7
~−QBO0.63212.71 × 10−7
~−TNA0.62214.62 × 10−7
~−TSA0.60571.07 × 10−6
~−WHWP0.59831.54 × 10−6
~−LHF0.58572.83 × 10−6
Predictor removed: AMM
~−NINO120.61621.87 × 10−7
~−AMO0.63227.79 × 10 −8
~−NAO0.62671.06 × 10−7
~−QBO0.63217.80 × 10−8
~−TNA0.56062.95 × 10−7
~−TSA0.54276.56 × 10−6
~−WHWP0.58291.03 × 10−6
~−LHF0.58519.19 × 10−7
Predictor removed: AMO
~−NINO120.61585.18 × 10−8
~−NAO0.62662.81 × 10−8
~−QBO0.63212.05 × 10 −8
~−TNA0.43481.62 × 10−4
~−TSA0.53712.66 × 10−6
~−WHWP0.58273.00 × 10−7
~−LHF0.58023.39 × 10−7
Predictor removed: QBO
~−NINO120.61521.30 × 10−8
~−NAO0.62626.83 × 10 −9
~−TNA0.43465.62 × 10−5
~−TSA0.53538.20 × 10−7
~−WHWP0.58257.87 × 10−8
~−LHF0.57571.12 × 10−7
Predictor removed: NAO
~−NINO120.61153.44 × 10 −9
~−TNA0.41214.05 × 10−5
~−TSA0.53432.16 × 10−7
~−WHWP0.58241.80 × 10−8
~−LHF0.56065.74 × 10−8
Predictor removed: NINO12
~−TNA0.38712.85 × 10−5
~−TSA0.49503.05 × 10−7
~−WHWP0.56658.33 × 10 −9
~−LHF0.55211.80 × 10−8
Predictor removed: WHWP
Top  3:  TNA,  TSA, and LHF