Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan

Table 1

ROC areas for February (3–5) forecasts by DEMETER-3 validated against observations and ERA-40 data over northern Pakistan. The range of values in brackets represents 95% CI calculated with 1000 bootstrap samples. ROC areas >0.5 are skillful and <0.5 are unskillful. Skillful forecasts are highlighted in bold values.

February (3–5); forecasts	ROC areas against observations		ROC areas against ERA-40
	Uncorrected	Bias-corrected	Uncorrected	Bias-corrected
Upper tercile (UT); (95% CI)	0.707; (0.538–0.876)	0.727; (0.563–0.891)	0.656; (0.484–0.828)	0.690; (0.527–0.852)
Above-the-median (AM); (95% CI)	0.623; (0.455–0.791)	0.687; (0.527–0.848)	0.623; (0.455–0.791)	0.667; (0.505–0.828)
Lower tercile (LT); (95% CI)	0.637; (0.470–0.803)	0.651; (0.486–0.817)	0.675; (0.512–0.838)	0.708; (0.548–0.869)