Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan

Table 2

ROC areas for February (4-5) forecasts by DEMETER-3 validated against observations and ERA-40 data over northern Pakistan.

February (4-5); forecasts	ROC areas against observations		ROC areas against ERA-40
	Uncorrected	Bias-corrected	Uncorrected	Bias-corrected
Upper tercile (UT); (95% CI)	0.771; (0.623–0.919)	0.780; (0.642–0.918)	0.675; (0.510–0.840)	0.683; (0.523–0.844)
Above-the-median (AM); (95% CI)	0.675; (0.514–0.837)	0.687; (0.529–0.845)	0.639; (0.471–0.806)	0.641; (0.474–0.807)
Lower tercile (LT); (95% CI)	0.569; (0.391–0.747)	0.601; (0.428–0.774)	0.536; (0.365–0.706)	0.559; (0.390–0.728)