Change-Point Analysis of Tropical Night Occurrences for Five Major Cities in Republic of Korea

<div>Posterior probability for the change-point, <svg height="13.2498pt" id="M89" style="vertical-align:-3.571899pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 47.6506 13.2498" width="47.6506pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z" id="g113-81"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="617" vert-adv-y="617"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,8.365,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,13.052,0)"><path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="789" vert-adv-y="789"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,27.527,0)"><path d="M162 -163V703H101V-163H162Z" id="g113-9"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="263" vert-adv-y="263"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,34.875,0)"><path d="M556 393C556 426 537 448 514 448C496 448 478 435 471 420C468 414 462 401 466 394C473 382 480 368 480 346C480 268 392 143 338 67H336C329 163 319 253 309 330S286 448 254 448C215 448 160 383 127 337L143 311C167 344 200 373 208 373S222 365 229 320C246 214 264 66 268 -20C219 -83 131 -171 17 -239L25 -261L137 -235C248 -110 273 -79 335 8C384 77 481 215 520 287C544 332 556 363 556 393Z" id="g113-122"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="579" vert-adv-y="579"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,42.722,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg>, and the marginal posterior density functions for <svg height="9.89089pt" id="M90" style="vertical-align:-0.2129898pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 7.60627 9.89089" width="7.60627pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M529 97L508 118C475 75 449 58 438 58C428 58 421 66 415 104C393 234 374 403 364 496C345 670 307 712 254 712C220 712 174 691 153 669L161 645C176 653 194 658 206 658C237 658 261 640 278 562C287 522 290 483 293 434C223 269 110 105 23 9L32 -12C59 -6 85 0 108 7C152 64 251 252 300 366C307 297 315 221 337 82C346 24 363 -12 393 -12C425 -12 475 13 529 97Z" id="g113-233"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="552" vert-adv-y="552"></glyph.data></g></svg> and <svg height="12.9099pt" id="M91" style="vertical-align:-3.57198pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.33792 7.78304 12.9099" width="7.78304pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M542 242C542 369 469 429 379 468C370 472 372 496 376 513L416 681L400 691L344 648L219 51C167 69 113 128 113 217C113 324 166 387 266 428L252 459C124 418 23 336 23 202C23 95 90 13 205 -8L182 -132C165 -222 191 -254 209 -261L215 -258L270 -7C415 -4 542 98 542 242ZM469 232C469 126 403 33 279 39L355 409C399 394 469 331 469 232Z" id="g113-243"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="565" vert-adv-y="565"></glyph.data></g></svg> before and after the change-point after omitting the year 1994.</div>

Advances in Meteorology

fig6

Figure 6

Figure 6: Change-Point Analysis of Tropical Night Occurrences for Five Major Cities in Republic of Korea 