Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin

<div>Vertical shear 200–850 (m s<sup>−1</sup>) cluster 3 RI composite (panel (a)) and non-RI composite (panel (b)) and the resulting differences in the permutation test of the fields (panel (c): shaded areas are significant at <svg height="8.54217pt" id="M22" style="vertical-align:-0.2063894pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.33578 45.1743 8.54217" width="45.1743pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 106L533 129C501 84 476 67 464 67C446 67 435 116 414 239C457 297 508 367 550 440L539 451L484 438C458 390 429 338 404 300H402C375 407 351 451 285 451C168 451 24 312 24 153C24 56 66 -12 132 -12C206 -12 284 64 345 156H347C367 24 386 -12 422 -12C457 -12 503 7 558 106ZM338 206C272 99 215 56 173 56C140 56 116 96 116 170C116 303 194 405 255 405C304 405 324 299 338 206Z" id="g50-223"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="582" vert-adv-y="582"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.242,0)"><path d="M556 331V384H55V331H556ZM556 140V193H55V140H556Z" id="g54-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.861,0)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z" id="g50-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.192,0)"><path d="M117 -12C153 -12 178 12 178 50C178 84 153 110 118 110C84 110 59 84 59 50C59 12 84 -12 117 -12Z" id="g50-47"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="237" vert-adv-y="237"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,32.273,0)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z" id="g50-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.604,0)"><path d="M158 548H390L417 615L410 623H122L83 318C105 326 143 337 185 337C296 337 350 275 350 188C350 116 308 42 225 42C164 42 122 74 100 93C90 101 82 99 72 92C60 82 51 68 50 59C48 46 52 38 66 24C82 9 125 -12 172 -12C225 -11 292 15 346 59C408 108 437 166 437 226C437 309 371 397 242 397C214 397 170 382 133 369L158 548Z" id="g50-54"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg> or less). Shear present for non-RI composites and the <svg height="10.1602pt" id="M23" style="vertical-align:-3.32502pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.83518 7.88971 10.1602" width="7.88971pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M573 302C573 402 527 451 414 451C386 451 343 446 313 437L330 513L320 522C295 508 261 484 243 463L230 415C194 400 159 383 126 359L131 330C159 344 187 357 222 368L109 -147C96 -204 80 -214 18 -223L13 -255L256 -244L259 -212L236 -210C184 -205 180 -195 191 -141L219 -1C240 -10 268 -12 284 -12C352 4 431 48 484 104C543 166 573 240 573 302ZM481 290C481 165 381 37 305 37C280 37 249 56 235 71L302 395C328 399 353 402 372 402C427 402 481 378 481 290Z" id="g50-113"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="597" vert-adv-y="597"></glyph.data></g></svg> value field revealed this is statistically significant in distinguishing between RI and non-RI cases.</div>

Advances in Meteorology

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin 