Research Article
Response of Extreme Hydrological Events to Climate Change in the Water Source Area for the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project
Table 3
Extreme precipitation and flood discharge estimated via marginal distribution models for a range of return periods.
| | Return periods (year) | AM series | | RX1day (mm/d) | RX3day (mm/3 d) | W1 (×109 m3/d) | W3 (×109 m3/3 d) | | Gamma | GEV | GPD | Gamma | GEV | GPD | Gamma | GEV | GPD | Gamma | GEV | GPD |
| | 10 | 55.6 | 55.2 | 59.9 | 96.4 | 95.9 | 100.2 | 2.000 | 1.964 | 2.107 | 4.323 | 4.270 | 4.533 | | 50 | 72.3 | 70.9 | 71.6 | 123.0 | 127.9 | 117.1 | 2.796 | 2.693 | 2.500 | 6.001 | 5.866 | 5.233 | | 100 | 78.9 | 76.8 | 74.3 | 133.4 | 141.5 | 120.9 | 3.117 | 2.982 | 2.581 | 6.677 | 6.505 | 5.364 | | 500 | 93.3 | 89.2 | 77.8 | 156.0 | 173.1 | 125.9 | 3.834 | 3.610 | 2.678 | 8.183 | 7.906 | 5.508 | | 1000 | 99.2 | 93.9 | 78.7 | 165.3 | 186.8 | 127.0 | 4.134 | 3.863 | 2.697 | 8.811 | 8.477 | 5.535 |
| | Return periods (year) | POT series | | RX1day (mm/d) | RX3day (mm/3 d) | W1 (×109 m3/d) | W3 (×109 m3/3 d) | | Gamma | GEV | GPD | Gamma | GEV | GPD | Gamma | GEV | GPD | Gamma | GEV | GPD |
| | 10 | 50.5 | 51.3 | 52.1 | 88.1 | 88.3 | 91.4 | 1.753 | 1.763 | 1.785 | 3.945 | 4.391 | 4.071 | | 50 | 63.1 | 77.0 | 65.3 | 110.4 | 119.9 | 105.4 | 2.328 | 3.050 | 2.366 | 5.236 | 6.915 | 5.451 | | 100 | 68.0 | 91.0 | 69.4 | 119.0 | 134.3 | 108.5 | 2.556 | 3.839 | 2.562 | 5.747 | 8.265 | 5.919 | | 500 | 78.6 | 133.1 | 76.5 | 137.8 | 169.9 | 112.5 | 3.059 | 6.517 | 2.920 | 6.875 | 12.229 | 6.783 | | 1000 | 83.0 | 156.3 | 78.8 | 145.5 | 186.3 | 113.3 | 3.267 | 8.176 | 3.041 | 7.342 | 14.377 | 7.077 |
|
|
