Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Figure 2

Best (black line) and simulated tracks of Hurricane Tomas from 00UTC on 4 November to 18UTC on 5 November 2010 are presented. NHC’s track forecast cones for 3 (thin black line) and 5 (thin red line) days are also shown. All the simulations encompass the time period from 00UTC on 1 November to 00UTC on 6 November 2010, which includes the Tomas increasingly disorganised phase (from 00UTC on 1 November to 00UTC on 3 November) and the subsequent rapid intensification phase (from 06UTC on 4 November to 06UTC on 5 November).