Research Article
A New Weighting Scheme in Weighted Markov Model for Predicting the Probability of Drought Episodes
Table 3
Predicted probabilities of next drought classes at Astor station.
| Initial month | Class | Steps | Weights | ED | EW | MD | MW | NN | SD | SW |
| Jun | NN | P7 | 0.00290 | 0.00000 | 0.05020 | 0.06700 | 0.13640 | 0.68420 | 0.01670 | 0.04550 | July | NN | P6 | 0.07250 | 0.00240 | 0.06680 | 0.06440 | 0.13130 | 0.66830 | 0.01910 | 0.04770 | Aug | NN | P5 | 0.00810 | 0.00240 | 0.05950 | 0.06670 | 0.12860 | 0.67860 | 0.01430 | 0.05000 | Sep | NN | P4 | 0.04000 | 0.00000 | 0.05700 | 0.09260 | 0.11880 | 0.66510 | 0.01900 | 0.04750 | Oct | NN | P3 | 0.03710 | 0.00240 | 0.06400 | 0.07110 | 0.11370 | 0.69670 | 0.01660 | 0.03550 | Nov | NN | P2 | 0.04980 | 0.00240 | 0.05910 | 0.08750 | 0.10640 | 0.69270 | 0.01890 | 0.03310 | Dec | NN | P1 | 0.78950 | 0.00240 | 0.03770 | 0.06840 | 0.11320 | 0.72410 | 0.01890 | 0.03540 | | | | | 0.00230 | 0.04290 | 0.07010 | 0.11460 | 0.71460 | 0.01880 | 0.03680 |
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