Research Article
A New Weighting Scheme in Weighted Markov Model for Predicting the Probability of Drought Episodes
Table 4
One-month ahead probabilities under weighted Markov chain and Steady State behavior.
| Stations | Statistics | ED | EW | MD | MW | NN | SD | SW |
| Skardu | Kappa | 3.1794 | 0.9962 | −0.5078 | 0.2383 | −1.5348 | −2.0740 | Nil | value | 0.0015 | 0.3191 | 0.6116 | 0.8117 | 0.1248 | 0.0381 | Nil | Weights | 0.3727 | 0.1168 | 0.0595 | 0.0279 | 0.1799 | 0.2431 | Nil | IRMWMC | Nil | 0.0250 | 0.0702 | 0.1263 | 0.2483 | 0.5003 | 0.0299 | Steady states | Nil | 0.0013 | 0.0034 | 0.2974 | 0.0563 | 0.6221 | 0.0195 |
| Chilas | Kappa | 1.6412 | 2.7045 | 0.5361 | 0.5355 | −1.2023 | 0.1986 | Nil | value | 0.1008 | 0.0068 | 0.5919 | 0.5923 | 0.2293 | 0.8426 | Nil | Weights | 0.2407 | 0.3967 | 0.0786 | 0.0785 | 0.1763 | 0.0291 | Nil | IRMWMC | Nil | 0.0004 | 0.1488 | 0.0445 | 0.4869 | 0.2616 | 0.0578 | Steady states | Nil | 0.0025 | 0.1626 | 0.0560 | 0.4902 | 0.2646 | 0.0242 |
| Cherat | Kappa | 2.6746 | −0.7443 | 0.0175 | −0.0322 | −0.6303 | 0.0663 | 0.0949 | value | 0.0075 | 0.4567 | 0.9861 | 0.9743 | 0.5285 | 0.9471 | 0.9244 | Weights | 0.6278 | 0.1747 | 0.0041 | 0.0076 | 0.1480 | 0.0156 | 0.0223 | IRMWMC | 0.0241 | 0.0408 | 0.0162 | 0.1391 | 0.6948 | 0.0214 | 0.0637 | Steady states | 0.0085 | 0.0938 | 0.0521 | 0.0948 | 0.6978 | 0.0128 | 0.0403 |
| Peshawar | Kappa | 1.6807 | −1.9287 | −0.0091 | −1.1911 | −1.9143 | −0.1484 | 0.6617 | value | 0.0928 | 0.0538 | 0.9928 | 0.2336 | 0.0556 | 0.8820 | 0.5082 | Weights | 0.2231 | 0.2560 | 0.0012 | 0.1581 | 0.2541 | 0.0197 | 0.0878 | IRMWMC | 0.0129 | 0.0641 | 0.0490 | 0.0838 | 0.6623 | 0.0594 | 0.0684 | Steady states | 0.0189 | 0.0847 | 0.0782 | 0.0846 | 0.6649 | 0.0154 | 0.0532 |
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