Advances in Meteorology

Research Article

Effects of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution on Short- and Medium-Term Daily Temperature Forecasts for Energy Consumption Application in European Cities

Table 1

MAE of the e-kmf™ temperature forecasts at different spatial resolutions and lead times over the Italian cities; values in italics depict a forecast below the 2°C error threshold.

MAE (°C)

d + 0

d + 1

d + 2

d + 3

d + 4

d + 5

d + 6

d + 7

d + 8

d + 9

d + 10

d + 11

Milano (5.5 km)

0.45

0.56

0.59

0.75

0.79

1.29

1.76

2.03

2.21

2.16

2.43

2.72

Milano (8 km)

0.46

0.58

0.76

0.83

1.30

1.79

2.06

2.25

2.24

2.47

2.76

Milano (13 km)

0.63

0.76

0.77

1.01

1.07

1.66

2.27

2.58

2.80

2.77

3.04

3.38

Milano (18 km)

1.12

1.25

1.26

1.55

1.63

2.43

3.21

3.46

3.69

3.57

3.88

4.24

Torino (5.5 km)

0.59

0.74

0.85

0.80

0.83

1.19

1.78

2.28

2.42

2.39

2.61

Torino (8 km)

0.40

0.62

0.69

0.87

0.89

1.27

1.92

2.48

2.65

2.84

2.80

3.06

Torino (13 km)

0.55

0.84

0.94

1.16

1.19

1.65

2.46

3.14

3.31

3.55

3.51

3.78

Torino (18 km)

0.96

1.37

1.52

1.77

1.79

2.37

3.41

4.17

4.29

4.48

4.44

4.66

Roma (5.5 km)

0.33

0.45

0.55

0.54

0.59

1.15

1.55

1.93

1.98

1.90

2.24

2.37

Roma (8 km)

0.34

0.46

0.54

0.55

0.61

1.16

1.57

1.96

2.00

1.98

2.27

2.40

Roma (13 km)

0.47

0.63

0.73

0.76

0.81

1.55

2.05

2.52

2.55

2.49

2.87

3.03

Roma (18 km)

0.78

1.02

1.19

1.15

1.19

2.23

2.79

3.30

3.26

3.11

3.55

3.74

Napoli (5.5 km)

0.22

0.39

0.47

0.59

0.98

1.41

1.68

1.87

1.93

2.11

2.21

Napoli (8 km)

0.24

0.40

0.47

0.49

0.63

1.01

1.43

1.73

1.96

2.07

2.18

2.27

Napoli (13 km)

0.33

0.56

0.67

0.68

0.86

1.39

1.96

2.31

2.58

2.69

2.87

2.92

Napoli (18 km)

0.51

0.85

1.01

0.97

1.19

1.90

2.57

2.88

3.11

3.16

3.36

3.44