Advances in Meteorology The latest articles from Hindawi Publishing Corporation © 2015 , Hindawi Publishing Corporation . All rights reserved. Decadal Variation in Raindrop Size Distributions in Busan, Korea Wed, 15 Apr 2015 13:21:57 +0000 This paper investigated the variability of raindrop size distributions (DSDs) in Busan, Korea, using data from two different disdrometers: a precipitation occurrence sensor system (POSS) and a particle size velocity (Parsivel) optical disdrometer. DSDs were simulated using a gamma model to assess the intercomparability of these two techniques. Annual rainfall amount was higher in 2012 than in 2002, as were the annually averaged (which was 0.1 mm greater in 2012) and the frequency of convective rain. Severe rainfall (greater than 20 mm h−1) occurred more frequently and with a larger in 2012. The values of from July, August, and December, 2012, were much greater than from other months when compared with 2002. Larger raindrops contributed to the higher rain rates that were observed in the morning during 2012, whereas relatively smaller raindrops dominated in the afternoon. These results suggest that the increase in raindrop size that has been observed in Busan may continue in the future; however, more research will be required if we are to fully understand this phenomenon. Rainfall variables are highly dependent on drop size and so should be recalculated using the newest DSDs to allow more accurate polarimetric radar rainfall estimation. Cheol-Hwan You and Dong-In Lee Copyright © 2015 Cheol-Hwan You and Dong-In Lee. All rights reserved. Climatic Cycles and Gradients of the El Niño Core Region in North Peru Wed, 15 Apr 2015 13:06:15 +0000 Climatic processes in northern Peru are evaluated on surface observation independent of modelling studies. The region is characterized by regular oscillations, but episodic El Niño-events introduce strong disturbances. Conceptual models based on observations, remote sensing data, and output of regional climate models are compared with data from a new station network. The results show regular oscillations of all climate variables on the annual and daily time scale. The daily cycle is probably associated with thermotidal forcings, causing gravity waves to emanate from the Andes Cordillera. Main factors are the interaction of large scale pressure systems like the Southeast Pacific High and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Also, there are regional factors: an extended sea-breeze system, the barrier-effect of the Andes, additional energy input by elevated radiation absorption at the mountain slopes, local wind systems, and the variations of the sea surface temperature. At the coast, a low-level jet works as a thermodynamic energy sink, suppressing deep convection and supporting the aridity. Those patterns are found in most of the station data and the processes of this climate can generally be confirmed. The overturning of this stable system with the onset of El Niño-conditions is possibly caused by disruptions of the regional circulation. Rütger Rollenbeck, Fabian Bayer, Jannes Münchow, Michael Richter, Rodolfo Rodriguez, and Nestor Atarama Copyright © 2015 Rütger Rollenbeck et al. All rights reserved. Temporal Patterns of Shrub Vegetation and Variation with Precipitation in Gurbantunggut Desert, Central Asia Tue, 14 Apr 2015 11:58:29 +0000 The relationship between shrub vegetation and precipitation is one important component of desert vegetation responses to climate change, but it has not been understood completely because of its complexity and nonlinearity. In this study, we used MODIS NDVI data and precipitation data from 2004 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between the shrub vegetation and precipitation within Gurbantunggut Desert, Central Asia. Correlation analysis was employed to explore the relationship between NDVI and precipitation within growing season, within cross growing season, and on interannual scale. The results showed that NDVI could be classified into three temporal changing patterns within growing season, and NDVI was significantly correlated with the precipitation integrated by time durations and time lags within growing season; NDVI was significantly correlated with precipitation in the early growing season, but this relationship was not so obvious in the middle or late growing season; and the NDVI variational patterns depended on mean annual precipitation and the distribution of precipitation throughout the year. Precipitation had significant influence on shrub vegetation within Gurbantunggut Desert. Our findings provide basic knowledge for the relationship between precipitation and shrub vegetation, and it is helpful to understand how the desert vegetation responds to climate change in the future. Yuguang Yang, Chengyi Zhao, Ming Han, Yike Li, and Ruihong Yang Copyright © 2015 Yuguang Yang et al. All rights reserved. Spatiotemporal Variation and Abrupt Change Analysis of Temperature from 1960 to 2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China Sun, 12 Apr 2015 12:07:21 +0000 Based on a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1960–2012) in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHPC), spatiotemporal variation and abrupt change analysis of temperature were examined by moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and moving t-test. Major conclusions were listed as follows. (1) Annual and seasonal temperature increased with different rates on the process of fluctuating changes during 1960~2012. The upward trend was 0.22°C 10a−1 for annual temperature, while it was very significant in winter (0.34°C 10a−1) and spring (0.31°C 10a−1), moderately significant in autumn (0.21°C 10a−1), and nonsignificant in summer (0.05°C 10a−1). (2) The spatial changes of annual and seasonal temperature were similar. The temperature increased significantly in Beijing and its adjacent regions, while it was nonsignificant in the central and southern regions. (3) The spring, autumn, winter, and annual temperature had warm abrupt change. The abrupt change time for winter temperature was in the late 1970s, while it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s for spring, autumn, and annual temperature. (4) Macroscopic effects of global and regional climate warming and human activities were probably responsible for the temperature changes. The climate warming would influence the hydrological cycle and agricultural crops in the study area. Yanyu Yin, Hui Liu, Xiangsheng Yi, and Weidong Liu Copyright © 2015 Yanyu Yin et al. All rights reserved. Underwater Acoustic Measurements to Estimate Wind and Rainfall in the Mediterranean Sea Wed, 08 Apr 2015 13:36:17 +0000 Oceanic ambient noise measurements can be analyzed to obtain qualitative and quantitative information about wind and rainfall phenomena over the ocean filling the existing gap of reliable meteorological observations at sea. The Ligurian Sea Acoustic Experiment was designed to collect long-term synergistic observations from a passive acoustic recorder and surface sensors (i.e., buoy mounted rain gauge and anemometer and weather radar) to support error analysis of rainfall rate and wind speed quantification techniques developed in past studies. The study period included combination of high and low wind and rainfall episodes and two storm events that caused two floods in the vicinity of La Spezia and in the city of Genoa in 2011. The availability of high resolution in situ meteorological data allows improving data processing technique to detect and especially to provide effective estimates of wind and rainfall at sea. Results show a very good correspondence between estimates provided by passive acoustic recorder algorithm and in situ observations for both rainfall and wind phenomena and demonstrate the potential of using measurements provided by passive acoustic instruments in open sea for early warning of approaching coastal storms, which for the Mediterranean coastal areas constitutes one of the main causes of recurrent floods. Sara Pensieri, Roberto Bozzano, Jeffrey A. Nystuen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Marios N. Anagnostou, and Renzo Bechini Copyright © 2015 Sara Pensieri et al. All rights reserved. Precipitable Water Vapor Estimates in the Australian Region from Ground-Based GPS Observations Tue, 07 Apr 2015 09:32:17 +0000 We present a comparison of atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from ground-based global positioning system (GPS) receiver with traditional radiosonde measurement and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) technique for a five-year period (2008–2012) using Australian GPS stations. These stations were selectively chosen to provide a representative regional distribution of sites while ensuring conventional meteorological observations were available. Good agreement of PWV estimates was found between GPS and VLBI comparison with a mean difference of less than 1 mm and standard deviation of 3.5 mm and a mean difference and standard deviation of 0.1 mm and 4.0 mm, respectively, between GPS and radiosonde measurements. Systematic errors have also been discovered during the course of this study, which highlights the benefit of using GPS as a supplementary atmospheric PWV sensor and calibration system. The selected eight GPS sites sample different climates across Australia covering an area of approximately 30° NS/EW. It has also shown that the magnitude and variation of PWV estimates depend on the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which is a function of season, topography, and other regional climate conditions. Suelynn Choy, Chuan-Sheng Wang, Ta-Kang Yeh, John Dawson, Minghai Jia, and Yuriy Kuleshov Copyright © 2015 Suelynn Choy et al. All rights reserved. Impacts of Abnormal Heating of Tibetan Plateau on Rossby Wave Activity and Hazards Related to Snow and Ice in South China Sun, 29 Mar 2015 07:35:22 +0000 In January 2008, extreme freezing rain struck South China. At the same time, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was experiencing pronounced surface heating. The characteristics of this extreme weather and its linkage to the TP surface heating anomaly were analyzed in this paper. The results show that (1) anomalous heating of the TP helps to form and sustain the Siberian blocking high, which is important for persistent southward flow of dry and cold Siberian air; (2) TP heating helps the moisture flux move more north and strengthens the southerly wind above 850 hPa; (3) there are two Rossby wave trains at 500 hPa and the layers above it (at about 20∘N–40∘N). Correlation analysis reveals that TP heating anomalies are closely associated with these Rossby wave trains; (4) the Rossby wave propagates downstream from the TP to South China in the mid and high layers of the atmosphere when the TP changes swiftly from a heat sink to a heat source. This implies that anomalous heating of the TP may stimulate the Rossby wave train to propagate downward in midlatitudes. Yuyue Fan, Guoping Li, and Huiguo Lu Copyright © 2015 Yuyue Fan et al. All rights reserved. Impact Assessment of Orography on the Extreme Precipitation Event of July 2010 over Pakistan: A Numerical Study Sun, 29 Mar 2015 07:34:06 +0000 The topography influences monsoon precipitation and gives rise to significant rainfall events in South Asia. The physical mechanism involved in such events includes mechanical uplifting, thermodynamics, small scale cloud processes, and large scale atmospheric circulations. The investigation into orographic precipitation is pursued by synoptic and model analysis. Deep convection occurs as warm moist airflow is channeling over steep mountains. WRF model coupled with Morrison double moment scheme is used to assess the relative impact of topography on extreme rainfall event of 26–30 July 2010 in Pakistan. Two sensitivity tests with full topography (CTL) and reduced topography by 50% (LOW) are carried out. Two distinct precipitation zones over Hindukush and Himalaya mountains are identified. The topographic changes significantly affect moisture divergence and spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. A low level jet is created on windward side of big mountains, yielding enhanced moisture flux and instability. Eddy kinetic energy significantly changes with orographic height. Energy flux created further unstabilized atmosphere and deep convection, producing wide spread heavy rainfall in the area in Himalaya foothills. Under the set synoptic conditions, orographic orientation enhanced the moisture accumulation and deep convection, resulting in occurrence of this extreme event. Khan Muhammad Tahir, Yan Yin, Yong Wang, Zaheer A. Babar, and Dong Yan Copyright © 2015 Khan Muhammad Tahir et al. All rights reserved. Regional Climate Change: Downscaling, Prediction, and Impact Assessment Wed, 25 Mar 2015 06:28:31 +0000 Lian Xie, Fredrick Semazzi, Adel Hanna, Richard Anyah, Huiwang Gao, and Yijun He Copyright © 2015 Lian Xie et al. All rights reserved. Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Processes and Atmospheric Modeling Tue, 24 Mar 2015 11:33:13 +0000 D. Bala Subrahamanyam, Ismail Gultepe, Sultan Al-Yahyai, and A. N. V. Satyanarayana Copyright © 2015 D. Bala Subrahamanyam et al. All rights reserved. Simulating Flow and Dispersion by Using WRF-CFD Coupled Model in a Built-Up Area of Shenyang, China Mon, 23 Mar 2015 07:13:39 +0000 Results are presented from a series of numerical studies designed to investigate the atmospheric boundary layer structure, ambient wind, and pollutant source location and their impacts on the wind field and pollutant distribution within the built-up areas of Shenyang, China. Two models, namely, Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) software package and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are used in the present study. Then the high resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical experiments were performed under the typical simulated atmospheric boundary conditions. It was found that the atmospheric boundary structure played a crucial role in the pollution within the building cluster, which determined the potential turbulent diffusion ability of the atmospheric surface layer; the change of the ambient wind direction can significantly affect the dispersion pattern of pollutants, which was a more sensitive factor than the ambient wind speed; under a given atmospheric state, the location of the pollution sources would dramatically determine the pollution patterns within built-up areas. The WRF-CFD numerical evaluation is a reliable method to understand the complicated flow and dispersion within built-up areas. Yijia Zheng, Yucong Miao, Shuhua Liu, Bicheng Chen, Hui Zheng, and Shu Wang Copyright © 2015 Yijia Zheng et al. All rights reserved. The Sensible Heat Flux in the Course of the Year at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard: Characteristics of Eddy Covariance Data and Corresponding Model Results Mon, 23 Mar 2015 07:08:41 +0000 In this paper we present one year of meteorological and flux measurements obtained near Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen. Fluxes are derived by the eddy covariance method and by a hydrodynamic model approach (HMA) as well. Both methods are compared and analyzed with respect to season and mean wind direction. Concerning the wind field we find a clear distinction between 3 prevailing regimes (which have influence on the flux behavior) mainly caused by the topography at the measurement site. Concerning the fluxes we find a good agreement between the HMA and the eddy covariance method in cases of turbulent mixing in summer but deviations at stable conditions, when the HMA almost always shows negative fluxes. Part of the deviation is based on a dependence of HMA fluxes on friction velocity and the influence of the molecular boundary layer. Moreover, the flagging system of the eddy covariance software package TK3 is briefly revised. A new quality criterion for the use of fluxes obtained by the eddy covariance method, which is based on integral turbulence characteristics, is proposed. Georg Jocher, Alexander Schulz, Christoph Ritter, Roland Neuber, Klaus Dethloff, and Thomas Foken Copyright © 2015 Georg Jocher et al. All rights reserved. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Aerosol Vertical Distribution Based on Lidar Observations: A Haze Case Study over Jinhua Basin Sun, 22 Mar 2015 12:33:47 +0000 The impacts of haze emphasized significance of hazards for human activities and importance of observations of aerosol vertical distribution. This study aimed to analyze the aerosol vertical distribution during a haze case at temporal and spatial aspects, using space-borne and ground-based Lidar observations over Jinhua Basin, Zhejiang province, as well as the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HSPLIT) model and optical situ monitoring at Jinhua site. The results highlight three pollution peaks above the surface located in the upper and lower boundary layer in Jinhua Basin. The trajectory analysis shows the pollutants inside and outside the planetary boundary layer from different sources. Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) obtained from the space-borne Lidar observations was compared with that from ground-based Lidar observations. The absolute error between the two instruments is about 0.193 km. It is illustrated that the space-borne Lidar is an effective instrument for obtaining regional aerosol pollution in vertical section. Pollution transport near the ground is closely related with the terrain condition. Wanchun Zhang, Mortier Augustin, Ying Zhang, Zhengqiang Li, Hua Xu, Dong Liu, Zhenzhu Wang, Yuhuan Zhang, Yan Ma, Fengxia Zhang, and Yang Lv Copyright © 2015 Wanchun Zhang et al. All rights reserved. The Development of a Customization Framework for the WRF Model over the Lake Victoria Basin, Eastern Africa on Seasonal Timescales Sun, 22 Mar 2015 12:24:33 +0000 Lake Victoria, Africa, supports millions of people. To produce reliable climate projections, it is desirable to successfully model the rainfall over the lake accurately. An initial step is taken here with customization of the Weather, Research, and Forecast (WRF) model. Of particular interest is an asymmetrical rainfall pattern across the lake basin, due to a diurnal land-lake breeze. The main aim is to present a customization framework for use over the lake. This framework is developed by conducting several series of model runs to investigate aspects of the customization. The runs are analyzed using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall data and Climatic Research Unit temperature data. The study shows that the choice of parameters and lake surface temperature initialization can significantly alter the results. Also, the optimal physics combinations for the climatology may not necessarily be suitable for all circumstances, such as extreme years. The study concludes that WRF is unable to reproduce the pattern across the lake. The temperature of the lake is too cold and this prevents the diurnal land-lake breeze reversal. Overall, this study highlights the importance of customizing a model to the region of research and presents a framework through which this may be achieved. R. Argent, X. Sun, F. Semazzi, L. Xie, and B. Liu Copyright © 2015 R. Argent et al. All rights reserved. Numerical Study of the Effects of Topography and Urbanization on the Local Atmospheric Circulations over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China Sun, 22 Mar 2015 10:54:56 +0000 The effects of the topography and urbanization on the local atmospheric circulations over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region were studied by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, as well as the interactions among these local atmospheric circulations. It was found that, in the summer day time, the multiscale thermally induced local atmospheric circulations may exist and interact in the same time over the BTH region; the topography played a role in the strengthening of the sea breeze circulations; after sunset, the inland progress of sea breeze was slowed down by the opposite mountain breeze; when the land breeze circulation dominated the Bohai bay, the mountain breeze circulation can couple with the land breeze circulation to form a large circulation ranging from the coastline to the mountains. And the presence of cities cannot change the general state of the sea-land breeze (SLB) circulation and mountain-valley breeze (MVB) circulation but acted to modify these local circulations slightly. Meanwhile, the development of the urban heat island (UHI) circulation was also strongly influenced by the nearby SLB circulation and MVB circulation. Yucong Miao, Shuhua Liu, Yijia Zheng, Shu Wang, and Bicheng Chen Copyright © 2015 Yucong Miao et al. All rights reserved. Assimilation of Chinese Doppler Radar and Lightning Data Using WRF-GSI: A Case Study of Mesoscale Convective System Sun, 22 Mar 2015 09:56:43 +0000 The radar-enhanced GSI (version 3.1) system and the WRF-ARW (version 3.4.1) model were modified to assimilate radar/lightning-proxy reflectivity. First, cloud-to-ground lightning data were converted to reflectivity using a simple assumed relationship between flash density and reflectivity. Next, the reflectivity was used in the cloud analysis of GSI to adjust the cloud/hydrometeors and moisture. Additionally, the radar/lightning-proxy reflectivity was simultaneously converted to a 3D temperature tendency. Finally, the model-calculated temperature tendencies from the explicit microphysics scheme, as well as cumulus parameterization at 3D grid points at which the radar temperature tendency is available, were updated in a forward full-physics step of diabatic digital filter initialization in the WRF-ARW. The WRF-GSI system was tested using a mesoscale convective system that occurred on June 5, 2009, and by assimilating Doppler radar and lightning data, respectively. The forecasted reflectivity with assimilation corresponded more closely to the observed reflectivity than that of the parallel experiment without assimilation, particularly during the first 6 h. After assimilation, the short-range precipitation prediction improved, although the precipitation intensity was stronger than the observed one. In addition, the improvements obtained by assimilating lightning data were worse than those from assimilating radar reflectivity over the first 3 h but improved thereafter. Yi Yang, Ying Wang, and Kefeng Zhu Copyright © 2015 Yi Yang et al. All rights reserved. Impacts of a Saline Lake and Its Salinity on Local Precipitation Sun, 22 Mar 2015 09:49:47 +0000 In the study, the weather research and forecasting model coupled with the community land model (WRF-CLM) is used to investigate impacts of the GSL and its salinity from October 2001 to April 2002. A salinity parameterization scheme is incorporated into the lake scheme of CLM. The WRF-CLM model with the salinity parameterization scheme can better simulate temperature and precipitation compared to that without considering the salinity effects. The improvement of simulation is especially significant under cold weather condition. The precipitation caused by the GSL effect is always positive over the downwind area of the GSL during the study period. Increased precipitation is largely attributed to the warm lake surface temperature and high latent heat flux over the GSL, which are favorable for the development of strong convective activity and horizontal wind and moisture convergence. Such kind of GSL-induced forcing is the primary mechanism for the downstream GSL effect precipitation. The GSL effect precipitation is largely contributed by fresh water effect when the temperature is close to or higher than 0°C. However, with lower temperature, the salinity effect becomes dominant for the GSL effect precipitation. Lijuan Wen Copyright © 2015 Lijuan Wen. All rights reserved. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal Sun, 22 Mar 2015 09:49:11 +0000 Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3°C in the first period and 2 and 5°C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to −1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models. Michal Belda, Petr Skalák, Aleš Farda, Tomáš Halenka, Michel Déqué, Gabriella Csima, Judit Bartholy, Csaba Torma, Constanta Boroneant, Mihaela Caian, and Valery Spiridonov Copyright © 2015 Michal Belda et al. All rights reserved. Meso-Alpha Scale Tropospheric Interactions within the Western Mediterranean Basin: Statistical Results Using 15-Year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Dataset Sun, 22 Mar 2015 09:17:27 +0000 After a 15-year average of the reanalyses meteorological data provided by NCEP/NCAR, this paper shows the mean seasonal evolution, between April and October, of the tropospheric dynamics in the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). As shown in this paper, it is the result of the meso-alpha interaction between the daily oscillation of coastal thermally driven circulations around the basin and the daily pulsation of sinking speeds over areas of the Western Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, from the 15-year average, a statistically significant correlation has been found between these processes (the daily oscillation of sea breezes and the daily pulsation of subsidence/convergence on the WMB). The quantification of this persistent link between these tropospheric processes elucidates their teleconnection at the meso-alpha scale and the seasonal evolution of the strength of this linkage. Test statistics are greater than critical values for the 5% significance level of the F-distribution. Besides, we have estimated a generalised diurnal compensatory subsidence over the Western Mediterranean Sea with a maximum mean sinking (subsidence) motion of up to −0.2 cm/s at 18:00 h UTC and 1000 hPa and a nocturnal generalised mean upward (convergence) motion of up to 0.05 cm/s at 00:00 h UTC and 1000 hPa. J. L. Palau and F. Rovira Copyright © 2015 J. L. Palau and F. Rovira. All rights reserved. Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin, China Sun, 22 Mar 2015 09:16:47 +0000 The water resources in the Yellow River basin (YRB) are vital to social and economic development in North and Northwest China. The basin has a marked continental monsoon climate and its water resources are especially vulnerable to climate change. Projected runoff in the basin for the period from 2001 to 2030 was simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. VIC was first calibrated using observations and then was driven by the precipitation and temperature projected by the RegCM3 high-resolution regional climate model under the IPCC scenario A2. Results show that, under the scenario A2, the mean annual temperature of the basin could increase by 1.6°C, while mean annual precipitation could decrease by 2.6%. There could be an 11.6% reduction in annual runoff in the basin according to the VIC projection. However, there are marked regional variations in these climate change impacts. Reductions of 13.6%, 25.7%, and 24.6% could be expected in the regions of Hekouzhen to Longmen, Longmen to Sanmenxia, and Sanmenxia to Huayuankou, respectively. Our study suggests that the condition of water resources in the YRB could become more severe in the period from 2001 to 2030 under the scenario A2. Zhiyong Wu, Heng Xiao, Guihua Lu, and Jinming Chen Copyright © 2015 Zhiyong Wu et al. All rights reserved. Seasonal and Interannual Variation in Energy Balance in the Semiarid Grassland Area of China Sun, 22 Mar 2015 09:05:08 +0000 Near surface energy budget changes have been proved to be induced by the land cover conversion through changing the surface physical properties, which can further impact the regional climate change. This study applies the DLS model to simulate the land cover under the business as usual (BAU) scenario and then analyses the seasonal and interannual variation of energy balance in the semiarid grassland area of China based on the simulated land cover with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the grassland will show a growing trend under the BAU scenario. Downward long wave radiation and downward short wave radiation will all have small-scale increase with time going by, while the surface net radiation will decrease from 2030 to 2050. However, there is obvious seasonal variation. Summer has the highest downward long wave radiation and downward short wave radiation, followed by spring and autumn. The lowest are in winter. As for the net surface radiation, there is obvious decrease in southeast of study area due to returning cropland to grassland. Those research conclusions can offer valuable information for the land use planning and relieving the effects of land cover change on climate change at the semiarid grassland area. Qun’ou Jiang, Enjun Ma, Jinyan Zhan, and Nana Shi Copyright © 2015 Qun’ou Jiang et al. All rights reserved. Laboratory Simulations of Local Winds in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer via Image Analysis Sun, 22 Mar 2015 08:52:49 +0000 In the atmospheric boundary layer, under high pressure conditions and negligible geostrophic winds, problems associated with pollution are the most critical. In this situation local winds play a major role in the evaluation of the atmospheric dynamics at small scales and in dispersion processes. These winds originate as a result of nonuniform heating of the soil, either when it is homogeneous or in discontinuous terrain in the presence of sea and/or slopes. Depending on the source of the thermal gradient, local winds are classified into convective boundary layer, sea and land breezes, urban heat islands, and slope currents. Local winds have been analyzed by (i) simple analytical models; (ii) numerical models; (iii) field measurements; (iv) laboratory measurements through which it is impossible to completely create the necessary similarities, but the parameters that determine the phenomenon can be controlled and each single wind can be separately analyzed. The present paper presents a summary of laboratory simulations of local winds neglecting synoptic winds and the effects of Coriolis force. Image analysis techniques appear suitable to fully describe both the individual phenomenon and the superposition of more than one local wind. Results do agree with other laboratory studies and numerical experiments. Monica Moroni and Antonio Cenedese Copyright © 2015 Monica Moroni and Antonio Cenedese. All rights reserved. Atmosphere-Cryosphere Coupled Model for Regional Climate Applications Thu, 19 Mar 2015 13:51:20 +0000 There have been significant advances in our understanding of the climate system, but two major problems still exist in modeling atmospheric response during cold seasons: (a) lack of detailed physical description of snow and frozen soil in the land-surface schemes and (b) insufficient understanding of regional climate response from the cryosphere. A multilayer snow land-surface model based on the conservations of heat and water substance inside the soil and snow is coupled to an atmospheric RCM, to investigate the effect of snow, snowmelt, and soil frost on the atmosphere during cold seasons. The coupled RCM shows much improvement in moisture and temperature simulation for March-April of 1997 compared to simple parameterizations used in GCMs. The importance of such processes in RCM simulation is more pronounced in mid-to-high latitudes during the transition period (winter–spring) affected by changes in surface energy and the hydrological cycle. The effect of including cryosphere physics through snow-albedo feedback mechanism changes the meridional temperature gradients and in turn changes the location of weather systems passing over the region. The implications from our study suggest that, to reduce the uncertainties and better assess the impacts of climate change, RCM simulations should include the detailed snow and frozen soil processes. Ki-Hong Min and Wen-Yih Sun Copyright © 2015 Ki-Hong Min and Wen-Yih Sun. All rights reserved. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya Thu, 19 Mar 2015 09:49:56 +0000 This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59) and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53) in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76) with high probabilities (0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60%) in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region. M. Oscar Kisaka, M. Mucheru-Muna, F. K. Ngetich, J. N. Mugwe, D. Mugendi, and F. Mairura Copyright © 2015 M. Oscar Kisaka et al. All rights reserved. Potential Influence of Climate Change on the Acid-Sensitivity of High-Elevation Lakes in the Georgia Basin, British Columbia Wed, 18 Mar 2015 11:56:59 +0000 Global climate models predict increased temperature and precipitation in the Georgia Basin, British Colmbia; however, little is known about the impacts on high-elevation regions. In the current study, fifty-four high-elevation lakes (754–2005 m a.s.l.) were studied to investigate the potential influence of climate change on surface water acid-sensitivity. Redundancy analysis indicated that the concentration of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, and associated metals was significantly influenced by climate parameters. Furthermore, these components differed significantly between biogeoclimatic zones. Modelled soil base cation weathering for a subset of the study lakes was predicted to increase by 9% per 1°C increase in temperature. Changes in temperature and precipitation may potentially decrease the pH of surface waters owing to changes in anthropogenic deposition and organic acid production. In contrast, increased soil base cation weathering may increase the critical load (of acidity) of high-elevation lakes. Ultimately, the determining factor will be whether enhanced base cation weathering is sufficient to buffer changes in natural and anthropogenic acidity. Mountain and high-elevation regions are considered early warning systems to climate change; as such, future monitoring is imperative to assess the potential ramifications of climate change on the hydrochemistry and acid-sensitivity of these surface waters. Donna Strang and Julian Aherne Copyright © 2015 Donna Strang and Julian Aherne. All rights reserved. Lagrangian Coherent Structure Analysis of Terminal Winds: Three-Dimensionality, Intramodel Variations, and Flight Analyses Thu, 12 Mar 2015 10:59:20 +0000 We present a study of three-dimensional Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) near the Hong Kong International Airport and relate to previous developments of two-dimensional (2D) LCS analyses. The LCS are contrasted among three independent models and against 2D coherent Doppler light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data. Addition of the velocity information perpendicular to the LIDAR scanning cone helps solidify flow structures inferred from previous studies; contrast among models reveals the intramodel variability; and comparison with flight data evaluates the performance among models in terms of Lagrangian analyses. We find that, while the three models and the LIDAR do recover similar features of the windshear experienced by a landing aircraft (along the landing trajectory), their Lagrangian signatures over the entire domain are quite different—a portion of each numerical model captures certain features resembling those LCS extracted from independent 2D LIDAR analyses based on observations. Brent Knutson, Wenbo Tang, and Pak Wai Chan Copyright © 2015 Brent Knutson et al. All rights reserved. Estimation of Continental-Basin-Scale Sublimation in the Lena River Basin, Siberia Thu, 12 Mar 2015 07:49:37 +0000 The Lena River basin in Siberia produces one of the largest river inflows into the Arctic Ocean. One of the most important sources of runoff to the river is spring snowmelt and therefore snow ablation processes have great importance for this basin. In this study, we simulated these processes with fine resolution at basin scale using MicroMet/SnowModel and SnowAssim. To assimilate snow water equivalent (SWE) data in SnowAssim, we used routine daily snow depth data and Sturm’s method. Following the verification of this method for SWE estimation in the basin, we evaluated the impact of snow data assimilation on basin-scale snow ablation. Through validation against MODIS snow coverage data and in situ snow survey observations, we found that SnowAssim could not improve on the original simulation by MicroMet/SnowModel because of estimation errors within the SWE data. Vegetation and accumulated snowfall control the spatial distribution of sublimation and we established that sublimation has an important effect on snow ablation. We found that the ratio of sublimation to snowfall in forests was around 26% and that interannual variation of sublimation modulated spring river runoff. Kazuyoshi Suzuki, Glen E. Liston, and Koji Matsuo Copyright © 2015 Kazuyoshi Suzuki et al. All rights reserved. Modeling and Forecasting Average Temperature for Weather Derivative Pricing Mon, 09 Mar 2015 07:30:25 +0000 The main purpose of this paper is to present a feasible model for the daily average temperature on the area of Zhengzhou and apply it to weather derivatives pricing. We start by exploring the background of weather derivatives market and then use the 62 years of daily historical data to apply the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to describe the evolution of the temperature. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to price heating degree day (HDD) call option for this city, and the slow convergence of the price of the HDD call can be found through taking 100,000 simulations. The methods of the research will provide a frame work for modeling temperature and pricing weather derivatives in other similar places in China. Zhiliang Wang, Peng Li, Lingyong Li, Chunyan Huang, and Min Liu Copyright © 2015 Zhiliang Wang et al. All rights reserved. Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models Using Global Optimization Wed, 04 Mar 2015 11:31:02 +0000 Parameter optimization for the conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) model has always been the difficult problem in hydrology since watershed hydrological model is high-dimensional and nonlinear with multimodal and nonconvex response surface and its parameters are obviously related and complementary. In the research presented here, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) global optimization method was used to calibrate the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model. We defined the ideal data and applied the method to observed data. Our results show that, in the case of ideal data, the data length did not affect the parameter optimization for the hydrological model. If the objective function was selected appropriately, the proposed method found the true parameter values. In the case of observed data, we applied the technique to different lengths of data (1, 2, and 3 years) and compared the results with ideal data. We found that errors in the data and model structure lead to significant uncertainties in the parameter optimization. Chao Zhang, Ru-bin Wang, and Qing-xiang Meng Copyright © 2015 Chao Zhang et al. All rights reserved. Study of Aerosol Influence on Nighttime Land Surface Temperature Retrieval Based on Two Methods Wed, 04 Mar 2015 11:22:14 +0000 The aim of this study is to evaluate the aerosol influence on LST retrieval with two algorithms (split-window (SW) method and a four-channel based method) using simulated data under typical conditions. The results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases to approximately 2.3 K for SW method and 1.5 K for four channel based method when VZA = 60° and visibility = 3 km; an RMSE would be increased by approximately 1.0 K when visibility varies from 3 km to 23 km. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis under a visibility of 3 km and 23 km is performed in terms of uncertainties of land surface emissivity (LSE), water vapor content (WVC), and instrument noise, respectively. It is noted that the four-channel based method is more sensitive to LSE than SW method, especially for dry atmosphere; LST error caused by a WVC uncertainty of 20% is within 1.5 K for SW method and within 0.8 K for four-channel based method; the instrument noise would introduce LST error with a maximum standard deviation of 0.5 K and 0.04 K for the four-channel based method and SW method, respectively. Caixia Gao, Enyu Zhao, Chuanrong Li, Yonggang Qian, Lingling Ma, Lingli Tang, Xiaoguang Jiang, and Hongyuan Huo Copyright © 2015 Caixia Gao et al. All rights reserved.