Advances in Meteorology The latest articles from Hindawi Publishing Corporation © 2015 , Hindawi Publishing Corporation . All rights reserved. Modeling of Time of Arrival Method for Lightning Locating Systems Sat, 31 Jan 2015 12:17:43 +0000 Various methods are used to locate cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. Even though a higher cost is incurred, a network of sensor stations is preferable to a single station due to the improved accuracy. For a single station measuring system, the accuracy of its analyses is mostly based on the chosen mathematical equations which can be solved in either linear or nonlinear mode. The sensitivity of the measuring equipment used is also particularly significant. This paper concentrates on the modelling of time of arrival (TOA) technique for locating a lightning flash by utilizing three broadband antennas. Consequently, by employing the developed model, the influences of geometric parameters on the accuracy of the model are evaluated. Therefore, a Matlab based simulation of the measuring system is developed. In the developed codes, randomly located lightning flash with its corresponding electromagnetic radiation was modelled. Results show that parameters such as lightning path shape, distance of the leader, and leader location can directly affect the accuracy of the TOA technique for extracting the azimuth and elevation. Saeed Vahabi-Mashak, Zulkurnain Abdul-Malek, Kamyar Mehranzamir, Hadi Nabipour-Afrouzi, Behnam Salimi, and Chin-Leong Wooi Copyright © 2015 Saeed Vahabi-Mashak et al. All rights reserved. Change-Point Analysis of Tropical Night Occurrences for Five Major Cities in Republic of Korea Sat, 31 Jan 2015 07:14:01 +0000 Bayesian change-point analysis is applied to detect a change-point in the occurrences of tropical night (TN) days in the 50-year time series data for five major cities in Republic of Korea. A TN day is simply defined as a day when the daily minimum temperature is greater than 25∘C. A Bayesian analysis is performed for detecting a change-point at an unknown time point in the TN day frequency time series, which is modeled by an independent Poisson random variable. The results showed that a single change occurred around 1993 for three cities (Seoul, Incheon, and Daegu). However, when we excluded the extraordinary year, 1994, a single change occurred around 1993 only in Seoul and Daegu. The average number of TN days in Seoul and Daegu increased significantly, by more than 150%, after the change-point year. The abrupt increase in TN day frequency in two cities over Republic of Korea around 1993 may be related to the significant decadal change in the East Asian summer monsoon around the mid 1990s and to rapid urbanization. Myoung-Seok Suh and Chansoo Kim Copyright © 2015 Myoung-Seok Suh and Chansoo Kim. All rights reserved. Precipitation over Northern South America and Its Seasonal Variability as Simulated by the CMIP5 Models Thu, 29 Jan 2015 10:31:59 +0000 Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have induced socioeconomic impacts of wide proportions. Hence, the evaluation of rainfall simulations at seasonal and interannual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required. Here, we evaluated the ability of seven CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its interannual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land. This is probably due to the fact that during these seasons, incoming radiation and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere, as suggested by previous studies. Models exhibit the worse simulations during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America. Juan P. Sierra, Paola A. Arias, and Sara C. Vieira Copyright © 2015 Juan P. Sierra et al. All rights reserved. Comparison of Cloud Base Height Derived from a Ground-Based Infrared Cloud Measurement and Two Ceilometers Tue, 27 Jan 2015 06:40:05 +0000 The cloud base height (CBH) derived from the whole-sky infrared cloud-measuring system (WSIRCMS) and two ceilometers (Vaisala CL31 and CL51) from November 1, 2011, to June 12, 2012, at the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) Beijing Observatory Station are analysed. Significant differences can be found by comparing the measurements of different instruments. More exactly, the cloud occurrence retrieved from CL31 is 3.8% higher than that from CL51, while WSIRCMS data shows 3.6% higher than ceilometers. More than 75.5% of the two ceilometers’ differences are within ±200 m and about 89.5% within ±500 m, while only 30.7% of the differences between WSIRCMS and ceilometers are within ±500 m and about 55.2% within ±1000 m. These differences may be caused by the measurement principles and CBH retrieval algorithm. A combination of a laser ceilometer and an infrared cloud instrument is recommended to improve the capability for determining cloud occurrence and retrieving CBHs. Lei Liu, Xue-jin Sun, Xi-chuan Liu, Tai-chang Gao, and Shi-jun Zhao Copyright © 2015 Lei Liu et al. All rights reserved. Dust Aerosols Detected Using a Ground-Based Polarization Lidar and CALIPSO over Wuhan (30.5°N, 114.4°E), China Mon, 26 Jan 2015 06:41:10 +0000 The vertical distribution, horizontal range, and optical properties of Asian dust were obtained using a ground-based depolarization lidar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) over a two-year measurement period (2010–2012) in Wuhan (30.5°N, 114.4°E), China. The depolarization lidar registered 13 dust events, most of which occurred in the spring (5 events) and winter (6 events). The dust layers occurred at heights of approximately 1.4–3.5 km. The horizontal ranges of the dust plumes were approximately 750–2400 km, based on the CALIPSO data. The average volume depolarization ratio (), particle depolarization ratio (), extinction and optical depth (AOD) of the dust layers were 0.12, 0.22, 0.19 km−1, and 0.32, respectively. The dust layers observed in the winter occurred at a lower height and had larger mean extinction and AOD, and smaller mean and than the spring dust layers. These wintertime features may result from a lower troposphere temperature inversion, the mixing of local aerosols, and hygroscopic growth under suitable relative humidity conditions. A dust event in April 2011 spanned 9 days. Compared with the observations at other sites, the dust layers over Wuhan exhibited more turbid along with suppressed nonspherical particle shape. Yun He and Fan Yi Copyright © 2015 Yun He and Fan Yi. All rights reserved. Tropical Atlantic Contributions to Strong Rainfall Variability Along the Northeast Brazilian Coast Thu, 22 Jan 2015 14:01:25 +0000 Tropical Atlantic (TA) Ocean-atmosphere interactions and their contributions to strong variability of rainfall along the Northeast Brazilian (NEB) coast were investigated for the years 1974–2008. The core rainy seasons of March-April and June-July were identified for Fortaleza (northern NEB; NNEB) and Recife (eastern NEB; ENEB), respectively. Lagged linear regressions between sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress (PWS) anomalies over the entire TA and strong rainfall anomalies at Fortaleza and Recife show that the rainfall variability of these regions is differentially influenced by the dynamics of the TA. When the Intertropical Convergence Zone is abnormally displaced southward a few months prior to the NNEB rainy season, the associated meridional mode increases humidity and precipitation during the rainy season. Additionally, this study shows predictive effect of SST, meridional PWS, and barrier layer thickness, in the Northwestern equatorial Atlantic, on the NNEB rainfall. The dynamical influence of the TA on the June-July ENEB rainfall variability shows a northwestward-propagating area of strong, positively correlated SST from the southeastern TA to the southwestern Atlantic warm pool (SAWP) offshore of Brazil. Our results also show predictive effect of SST, zonal PWS, and mixed layer depth, in the SAWP, on the ENEB rainfall. G. A. Hounsou-gbo, M. Araujo, B. Bourlès, D. Veleda, and J. Servain Copyright © 2015 G. A. Hounsou-gbo et al. All rights reserved. Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan Mon, 12 Jan 2015 09:35:02 +0000 Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country. This research investigated precipitation variability across 15 stations in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, over a 51-year study period (1961–2011). Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation, and the trend-free prewhitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlation in the precipitation time series. The results highlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation. One station in particular, the Saidu Sharif station, showed the maximum number of significant monthly precipitation events, followed by Abazai, Khairabad, and Malakand. On the seasonal time scale, precipitation trends changed from the summer to the autumn season. The Saidu Sharif station revealed the highest positive trend (7.48 mm/year) in annual precipitation. In the entire Swat River basin, statistically insignificant trends were found in the subbasins for the annual precipitation series; however, the Lower Swat subbasin showed the maximum quantitative increase in the precipitation at a rate of 2.18 mm/year. The performance of the MK and SR tests was consistent at the verified significance level. Ijaz Ahmad, Deshan Tang, TianFang Wang, Mei Wang, and Bakhtawar Wagan Copyright © 2015 Ijaz Ahmad et al. All rights reserved. Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations Method in the Shallow Lake Ecological Degradation and Restoration Tue, 06 Jan 2015 13:17:54 +0000 In the shallow lake ecosystems, the recovery of the aquatic macrophytes and the increase in the water transparency have been the main contents of the ecological restoration. Using the shallow lake ecological degradation and restoration model, CNOP method is adopted to discuss the instability and sensitivity of the ecosystem to the finite-amplitude perturbations related to the initial condition and the parameter condition. Results show that the linearly stable clear (turbid) water states can be nonlinearly unstable with the finite-amplitude perturbations, which represent the nature factors and the human activities such as the excessive harvest of the macrophytes and the sediment resuspension caused by artificially dynamic actions on the ecosystems. The results also support the viewpoint of Scheffer et al., whose emphasis is that the facilitation interactions between the submerged macrophytes and the water transparency are the main trigger for an occasional shift from a turbid to a clear state. Also, by the comparison with CNOP-I, CNOP-P, CNOP, and (CNOP-I, CNOP-P), results demonstrate that CNOP, which is not a simple combination of CNOP-I and CNOP-P, could induce the shallow lake ecosystem larger departure from the same ground state rather than CNOP-I, CNOP-P, and (CNOP-I, CNOP-P). Bo Wang and Qianqian Qi Copyright © 2015 Bo Wang and Qianqian Qi. All rights reserved. Trends in Downward Solar Radiation at the Surface over North America from Climate Model Projections and Implications for Solar Energy Mon, 05 Jan 2015 14:14:54 +0000 The projected changes in the downward solar radiation at the surface over North America for late 21st century are deduced from global climate model simulations with greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. A robust trend is found in winter over the United States, which exhibits a simple pattern of a decrease of sunlight over Northern USA. and an increase of sunlight over Southern USA. This structure was identified in both the seasonal mean and the mean climatology at different times of the day. It is broadly consistent with the known poleward shift of storm tracks in winter in climate model simulations with GHG forcing. The centennial trend of the downward shortwave radiation at the surface in Northern USA. is on the order of 10% of the climatological value for the January monthly mean, and slightly over 10% at the time when it is midday in the United States. This indicates a nonnegligible influence of the GHG forcing on solar energy in the long term. Nevertheless, when dividing the 10% by a century, in the near term, the impact of the GHG forcing is relatively minor such that the estimate of solar power potential using present-day climatology will remain useful in the coming decades. Gerardo Andres Saenz and Huei-Ping Huang Copyright © 2015 Gerardo Andres Saenz and Huei-Ping Huang. All rights reserved. Climate Modeling for Renewable Energy Applications Mon, 22 Dec 2014 13:19:11 +0000 Huei-Ping Huang, Brent C. Hedquist, Taewoo Lee, and Soe W. Myint Copyright © 2014 Huei-Ping Huang et al. All rights reserved. ENSO Teleconnection Pattern Changes over the Southeastern United States under a Climate Change Scenario in CMIP5 Models Sun, 21 Dec 2014 12:09:30 +0000 A strong teleconnection exists between the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific and the winter precipitation in the southeastern United States (SE US). This feature is adopted to validate the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in this study. In addition, the authors examine whether the teleconnection pattern persists in the future under a global warming scenario. Generally, most of the eight selected models show a positive correlation between November SST over Niño 3 region and December–February (DJF) mean daily precipitation anomalies over the SE US, consistent with the observation. However, the models with poor realization of skewness of Niño indices fail to simulate the realistic teleconnection pattern in the historical simulation. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) run, all of the models maintain positive and slightly increased correlation patterns. It is noteworthy that the region with strong teleconnection pattern shifts northward in the future. Increased variance of winter precipitation due to the SST teleconnection is shown over Alabama and Georgia rather than over Florida under the RCP8.5 scenario in most of the models, differing from the historical run in which the precipitation in Florida is the most attributable to the eastern Pacific SST. Ji-Hyun Oh, D. W. Shin, Steven D. Cocke, and Guillermo A. Baigorria Copyright © 2014 Ji-Hyun Oh et al. All rights reserved. Projecting Future Climate Change Scenarios Using Three Bias-Correction Methods Sun, 14 Dec 2014 11:02:18 +0000 We performed bias correction in future climate change scenarios to provide better accuracy of models through adaptation to future climate change. The proposed combination of the change factor (CF) and quantile mapping (QM) methods combines the individual advantages of both methods for adjusting the bias in global circulation models (GCMs) and regional circulation models (RCMs). We selected a study site in Songwol-dong, Seoul, Republic of Korea, to test and assess our proposed method. Our results show that the combined CF + QM method delivers better performance in terms of correcting the bias in GCMs/RCMs than when both methods are applied individually. In particular, our proposed method considerably improved the bias-corrected precipitation by capturing both the high peaks and amounts of precipitation as compared to that from the CF-only and QM-only methods. Thus, our proposed method can provide high-accuracy bias-corrected precipitation data, which could prove to be highly useful in interdisciplinary studies across the world. Donghyuk Kum, Kyoung Jae Lim, Chun Hwa Jang, Jichul Ryu, Jae E. Yang, Seong Joon Kim, Dong Soo Kong, and Younghun Jung Copyright © 2014 Donghyuk Kum et al. All rights reserved. Application of Short-Range LIDAR in Early Alerting for Low-Level Windshear and Turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport Mon, 01 Dec 2014 11:35:31 +0000 Hong Kong Observatory currently uses a series of meteorological instruments, including long-range LIDAR (light detection and ranging) systems, to provide alerting services of low-level windshear and turbulence for Hong Kong International Airport. For some events that are smaller in spatial dimensions and are rapidly changing, such as low altitude windshear and turbulence associated with buildings or man-made structures, it would be necessary to involve meteorological instruments that offer greater spatial resolution. Therefore, the Observatory has set up a short-range LIDAR on the roof of the AsiaWorld-Expo during the summers over the past several years, conducting field research on the feasibility of strengthening early alerting for windshear and turbulence over the north runway’s eastern arrival runway (Runway 25RA) and developing an automated early alerting algorithm. This paper takes the pilot reports for Runway 25RA during the 2013 field research as verification samples, using different thresholds for radial wind velocity spatial and temporal changes detected by the short-range LIDAR to calculate the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and analyzes its early alerting performance. K. K. Hon, P. W. Chan, Y. Y. Chiu, and Wenbo Tang Copyright © 2014 K. K. Hon et al. All rights reserved. Analysis and Discussion of Atmospheric Precursor of European Heat Summers Mon, 24 Nov 2014 09:56:47 +0000 The prediction of summers with notable droughts and heatwaves on the seasonal scale is challenging, especially in extratropical regions, since their development is not yet fully understood. Thus, monitoring and analysis of such summers are important tasks to close this knowledge gap. In a previous paper, the authors presented hints that extreme summers are connected with specific conditions during the winter-spring transition season. Here, these findings are further discussed and analysed in the context of the Earth’s circulation systems. No evidence for a connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Arctic Oscillation during the winter-spring transition and extremely hot and dry summers is found. However, inspection of the geopotential at 850 hPa shows that a Greenland-North Sea-Dipole is connected with extreme summers in Central Europe. This motivated the introduction of the novel Greenland-North Sea-Dipole-Index, GNDI. However, using this index as predictor would lead to one false alarm and one missed event in the time series analysed (1958–2011). Hints are found that the disturbance of the “dipole-summer” connection is due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To consider the ENSO effect, the novel Central European Drought Index (CEDI) has been developed, which is composed of the GNDI and the Bivariate ENSO Time Series Index. The CEDI enables a correct indication of all extremely hot and dry summers between 1958 and 2011 without any false alarm. Christine Träger-Chatterjee, Richard W. Müller, and Jörg Bendix Copyright © 2014 Christine Träger-Chatterjee et al. All rights reserved. Prediction of Tropical Cyclones’ Characteristic Factors on Hainan Island Using Data Mining Technology Thu, 20 Nov 2014 12:55:20 +0000 A new methodology combining data mining technology with statistical methods is proposed for the prediction of tropical cyclones’ characteristic factors which contain latitude, longitude, the lowest center pressure, and wind speed. In the proposed method, the best track datasets in the years 1949~2012 are used for prediction. Using the method, effective criterions are formed to judge whether tropical cyclones land on Hainan Island or not. The highest probability of accurate judgment can reach above 79%. With regard to TCs which are judged to land on Hainan Island, related prediction equations are established to effectively predict their characteristic factors. Results show that the average distance error is improved compared with the National Meteorological Centre of China. Ruixu Zhou, Wensheng Gao, Bowen Zhang, Xianggan Fu, Qinzhu Chen, Song Huang, and Yafeng Liang Copyright © 2014 Ruixu Zhou et al. All rights reserved. The Influence of Climate Factors, Meteorological Conditions, and Boundary-Layer Structure on Severe Haze Pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region during January 2013 Mon, 17 Nov 2014 14:32:25 +0000 The air-pollution episodes in China in January 2013 were the most hazardous in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. PM2.5, AOD, and long-term visibility data, along with various climate and meteorological factors and the boundary-layer structure, were used to investigate the cause of the heavy-haze pollution events in January 2013. The result suggests that unfavorable diffusion conditions (weak surface winds and high humidity) and high primary-pollutant emissions have induced heavy-haze pollution in the BTH region over the past two decades. A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), weak East Asian winter monsoon, a weak Siberian High, weak meridional circulation, southerly wind anomalies in the lower troposphere, and abnormally weak surface winds and high humidity were responsible for the severe haze pollution events, rather than an abrupt increase in emissions. Heavy/severe haze pollution is associated with orographic wind convergence zones along the Taihang and Yanshan Mountains, slight winds (1.7∼2.1 m/s), and high humidity (70%∼90%), which limits the diffusion of pollutants and facilitates the hygroscopic growth of aerosols. Recirculation and regional transport, along with the poorest diffusion conditions and favorable conditions for hygroscopic growth of aerosols and secondary transformation under the high emission, led to explosive growth and the record high hourly average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing. Lili Wang, Nan Zhang, Zirui Liu, Yang Sun, Dongsheng Ji, and Yuesi Wang Copyright © 2014 Lili Wang et al. All rights reserved. Relative Contribution of the Topographic Influence on the Triangle Approach for Evapotranspiration Estimation over Mountainous Areas Wed, 05 Nov 2014 08:01:27 +0000 Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water budget. Estimation ET through remote sensing over a mountainous terrain is typically obstructed by topographic effects. In this paper, topographic corrections were applied to ET estimates using the surface-air temperature difference-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (()-NDVI) triangle method with MODIS data for the Taihu Basin in China. The effect of topography on ET was evaluated over an area with a complex terrain. After applying the topographic correction, the results indicate that the ET decreased with elevation and slope. The slope had a stronger impact on ET than the elevation, which caused the corrected ET to decrease by 90% from 6.8 mm day−1 to 0.6 mm day−1 for slopes over 50°. On average, the corrected ET decreased by 10.4% and 32.1% for north- and south-facing slopes, respectively. The ET corrected using the triangle method strongly depended on the evaporative fraction correction, which can mainly be attributed to the surface temperature correction. We conclude that a topographic correction is necessary when the triangle method is applied to areas with a complex terrain. Xiaosong Zhao and Yuanbo Liu Copyright © 2014 Xiaosong Zhao and Yuanbo Liu. All rights reserved. Trends in Dryness Index Based on Potential Evapotranspiration and Precipitation over 1961–2099 in Xinjiang, China Tue, 04 Nov 2014 13:21:12 +0000 Under the background of global warming, deep understanding for drought-related index is important. The spatial distributions and trends in annual mean (AM) climatic data, including , , and in Xinjiang, China, were analyzed. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied. Future , , and series were generated and used to analyze their temporal trends, along with the historical climatic data. The results showed that (1) over 1960–2010, varied greatly and ranged from 1.5 to 479.6. Trends in decreased significantly. The regional climate turned to be from arid to humid in the past; (2) over 2015–2099, ranged between 1.9 and 198.5 under A2 scenario and 1.6 and 130.4 under B2 scenario. Trends in decreased insignificantly under A2 scenario and significantly under B2 scenario, indicating a weak drought stress from the future climate; (3) the modified Mann-Kendal (MKK) test generally decreased the significance of the trends because it considered the limitation of serial autocorrelation. Robust trend test of MMK method was recommended considering its rigor property. In conclusion, the drought in Xinjiang tends to be relieved over 2015–2099 compared to 1960–2010. Yi Li and Mudan Zhou Copyright © 2014 Yi Li and Mudan Zhou. All rights reserved. The Influence of Topography on East African October to December Climate: Sensitivity Experiments with RegCM4 Tue, 21 Oct 2014 00:00:00 +0000 The influence of topography on east African climate is investigated using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, with focus on October to December season. Results show that the mean rainfall (temperature) significantly reduces (increases) over the region when topography elevation is reduced. Based on the model, when topography over the selected region (KTU) is reduced to 25%, the mean rainfall (temperature) over east Africa is reduced (increased) by about 19% (1.4°C). The maximum rainfall (temperature) reduction (increase) is however observed around the region over which topography is reduced. The reduction in topography elevation resulted in an anomalous moisture divergence at low level and descending motion over the region. KTU topography enhances the surface heat flux over KTU region and tends to enhance convection over both KTU and the east African region. The topography also helps in the generation of the high frequency mesoscale and subsynoptic disturbances over the region. These disturbances produce precipitation over the region and may also enhance precipitation systems over remote areas due to propagation of the disturbances. The magnitude of the zonal wind speed at 850 hpa increases with the decrease in topography elevation. Bob Alex Ogwang, Haishan Chen, Xing Li, and Chujie Gao Copyright © 2014 Bob Alex Ogwang et al. All rights reserved. Impact of Direct Soil Moisture and Revised Soil Moisture Index Methods on Hydrologic Predictions in an Arid Climate Wed, 15 Oct 2014 08:57:54 +0000 The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a physically based model that is used extensively to simulate hydrologic processes in a wide range of climates around the world. SWAT uses spatial hydrometeorological data to simulate runoff through the computation of a retention curve number. The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of two approaches used for the calculation of curve numbers in SWAT, that is, the Revised Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which is based on previous meteorological conditions, and the Soil Moisture Condition II (SMCII), which is based on soil features for the prediction of flow. The results showed that the sensitive parameters for the SMI method are land-use and land-cover features. However, for the SMCII method, the soil and the channel are the sensitive parameters. The performances of the SMI and SMCII methods were analyzed using various indices. We concluded that the fair performance of the SMI method in an arid region may be due to the inherent characteristics of the method since it relies mostly on previous meteorological conditions and does not account for the soil features of the catchment. Milad Jajarmizadeh, Sobri bin Harun, Shamsuddin Shahid, Shatirah Akib, and Mohsen Salarpour Copyright © 2014 Milad Jajarmizadeh et al. All rights reserved. Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate Tue, 14 Oct 2014 11:51:43 +0000 This study evaluates seasonal forecasts of rainfall and maximum temperature across the Ethiopian highlands from coupled ensemble models in the period 1981–2006, by comparison with gridded observational products (NMA + GPCC/CRU3). Early season forecasts from the coupled forecast system (CFS) are steadier than European community medium range forecast (ECMWF). CFS and ECMWF April forecasts of June–August (JJA) rainfall achieve significant fit (, 0.25, resp.), but ECMWF forecasts tend to have a narrow range with drought underpredicted. Early season forecasts of JJA maximum temperature are weak in both models; hence ability to predict water resource gains may be better than losses. One aim of seasonal climate forecasting is to ensure that crop yields keep pace with Ethiopia’s growing population. Farmers using prediction technology are better informed to avoid risk in dry years and generate surplus in wet years. Mark R. Jury Copyright © 2014 Mark R. Jury. All rights reserved. Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on Wind Energy Resources in the Contiguous United States by Using a Limited-Area Model with Scale-Selective Data Assimilation Mon, 22 Sep 2014 07:39:10 +0000 By using a limited-area model (LAM) in combination with the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) approach, wind energy resources in the contiguous United States (CONUS) were downscaled from IPCC CCSM3 global model projections for both current and future climate conditions. An assessment of climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the CONUS region was then conducted. Based on the downscaling results, when projecting into future climate under IPCC’s A1B scenario, the average annual wind speed experiences an overall shift across the CONUS region. From the current climate to the 2040s, the average annual wind speed is expected to increase from 0.1 to 0.2 m s−1 over the Great Plains, Northern Great Lakes Region, and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rocky Mountains. When projecting into the 2090s from current climate, there is an overall increase in the Great Plains Region and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rockies with a mean wind speed increase between 0 and 0.1 m s−1, while, the Northern Great Lakes Region experiences an even greater increase from current climate to 2090s than over the first few decades with an increase of mean wind speed from 0.1 to 0.4 m s−1. Bin Liu, Katelyn B. Costa, Lian Xie, and Fredrick H. M. Semazzi Copyright © 2014 Bin Liu et al. All rights reserved. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario Sun, 21 Sep 2014 09:29:25 +0000 This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs. Ji-Woo Lee, Suryun Ham, Song-You Hong, Kei Yoshimura, and Minsu Joh Copyright © 2014 Ji-Woo Lee et al. All rights reserved. Multirule Based Diagnostic Approach for the Fog Predictions Using WRF Modelling Tool Sun, 21 Sep 2014 09:25:19 +0000 The prediction of fog onset remains difficult despite the progress in numerical weather prediction. It is a complex process and requires adequate representation of the local perturbations in weather prediction models. It mainly depends upon microphysical and mesoscale processes that act within the boundary layer. This study utilizes a multirule based diagnostic (MRD) approach using postprocessing of the model simulations for fog predictions. The empiricism involved in this approach is mainly to bridge the gap between mesoscale and microscale variables, which are related to mechanism of the fog formation. Fog occurrence is a common phenomenon during winter season over Delhi, India, with the passage of the western disturbances across northwestern part of the country accompanied with significant amount of moisture. This study implements the above cited approach for the prediction of occurrences of fog and its onset time over Delhi. For this purpose, a high resolution weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used for fog simulations. The study involves depiction of model validation and postprocessing of the model simulations for MRD approach and its subsequent application to fog predictions. Through this approach model identified foggy and nonfoggy days successfully 94% of the time. Further, the onset of fog events is well captured within an accuracy of 30–90 minutes. This study demonstrates that the multirule based postprocessing approach is a useful and highly promising tool in improving the fog predictions. Swagata Payra and Manju Mohan Copyright © 2014 Swagata Payra and Manju Mohan. All rights reserved. Evaluation of Arctic Land Snow Cover Characteristics, Surface Albedo, and Temperature during the Transition Seasons from Regional Climate Model Simulations and Satellite Data Thu, 18 Sep 2014 08:03:54 +0000 This paper evaluates the simulated Arctic land snow cover duration, snow water equivalent, snow cover fraction, surface albedo, and land surface temperature in the regional climate model HIRHAM5 during 2008–2010, compared with various satellite and reanalysis data and one further regional climate model (COSMO-CLM). HIRHAM5 shows a general agreement in the spatial patterns and annual course of these variables, although distinct biases for specific regions and months are obvious. The most prominent biases occur for east Siberian deciduous forest albedo, which is overestimated in the simulation for snow covered conditions in spring. This may be caused by the simplified albedo parameterization (e.g., nonconsideration of different forest types and neglecting the effect of fallen leaves and branches on snow for deciduous tree forest). The land surface temperature biases mirror the albedo biases in their spatial and temporal structures. The snow cover fraction and albedo biases can explain the simulated land surface temperature bias of ca. −3°C over the Siberian forest area in spring. X. Zhou, H. Matthes, A. Rinke, K. Klehmet, B. Heim, W. Dorn, D. Klaus, K. Dethloff, and B. Rockel Copyright © 2014 X. Zhou et al. All rights reserved. Accumulation Studies at a High Elevation Glacier Site in Central Karakoram Wed, 17 Sep 2014 07:24:42 +0000 The precipitation conditions in central Karakoram are investigated on the basis of snow samples from high elevated snow pits at Urdok glacier from 2006 and the analysis of atmospheric transport trajectories in combination with the general, large scale pressure distribution. Our analysis shows that accumulation at the high elevated regions of the central Karakoram is dominated by the west wind circulation (WWC). Incursions of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) occur sometimes during the summer months accompanied by strong precipitation but play a minor role for the total accumulation amount. Dust layers found in the snow pits show a rare earth elements signature which indicates that the dust very likely originates from the arid regions of western China and Central Asia. Our trajectory calculations based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data confirm that especially during late spring and early summer the westerly flow is redirected over the Tarim basin to reach central Karakoram from an East/Southeast direction. The preservation of the layer structure and the clear seasonal signals in the snow pits indicate that locations above 5200 m in central Karakoram will be suitable places for retrieving longer climate records from ice cores. Christoph Mayer, Astrid Lambrecht, Hans Oerter, Margit Schwikowski, Elisa Vuillermoz, Nicola Frank, and Guglielmina Diolaiuti Copyright © 2014 Christoph Mayer et al. All rights reserved. The Role of the Dominant Modes of Precipitation Variability over Eastern Africa in Modulating the Hydrology of Lake Victoria Tue, 16 Sep 2014 11:44:58 +0000 Previous water budget studies over Lake Victoria basin have shown that there is near balance between rainfall and evaporation and that the variability of Lake Victoria levels is determined virtually entirely by changes in rainfall since evaporation is nearly constant. The variability of rainfall over East Africa is dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); however, the second and third most dominant rainfall climate modes also account for significant variability across the region. The relationship between ENSO and other significant modes of precipitation variability with Lake Victoria levels is nonlinear. This relationship should be studied to determine which modes need to be accurately modeled in order to accurately model Lake Victoria levels, which are important to the hydroelectric industry in East Africa. The objective of this analysis is to estimate the relative contributions of the dominant modes of annual precipitation variability to the modulation of Lake Victoria levels for the present day (1950–2012). The first mode of annual rainfall variability accounts for most of the variability in Lake Victoria levels, while the effects of the second and third modes are negligible even though these modes are also significant over the region. Kara A. Smith and Fredrick H. M. Semazzi Copyright © 2014 Kara A. Smith and Fredrick H. M. Semazzi. All rights reserved. Climate Change Scenarios of Precipitation Extremes in the Carpathian Region Based on an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models Tue, 16 Sep 2014 11:04:51 +0000 The study examines projected changes in precipitation extremes, aggregated on several time scales (1 hour, 1 day, and 5 days), in simulations of 12 regional climate models (RCMs) with high spatial resolution (~25 km). The study area is the Carpathian Basin (Central and Southeastern Europe) which has a complex topography and encompasses the whole territory of Slovakia and Hungary as well as major parts of Romania and western Ukraine. We focus on changes in mean seasonal maxima and high quantiles (50-year return values) projected for the late 21st century (time slice 2070–2099) in comparison to the control period (time slice 1961–1990), for summer and winter. The 50-year return values are estimated by means of a regional frequency analysis based on the region-of-influence method, which reduces random variability and leads to more reliable estimates of high quantiles. In winter, all examined characteristics of precipitation (seasonal totals, mean seasonal maxima, and 50-year return values for both short-term and multi-day aggregations) show similar patterns of projected increases for the late 21st century. In summer, by contrast, drying is projected for seasonal totals in all RCMs while increases clearly prevail for the 50-year return values. The projected increases are larger for short-term (hourly) extremes that are more directly related to convective activity than multiday extremes. This suggests that the probability of occurrence of flash floods may increase more than that of large-scale floods in a warmer climate. The within-ensemble variability (and associated uncertainty) is, nevertheless, much larger in summer than in winter. Ladislav Gaál, Romana Beranová, Kamila Hlavčová, and Jan Kyselý Copyright © 2014 Ladislav Gaál et al. All rights reserved. A Numerical Investigation of the Precipitation over Lake Victoria Basin Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Lake Limited-Area Model Mon, 15 Sep 2014 07:52:44 +0000 By using a coupled atmosphere-lake model, which consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), the present study generated realistic lake surface temperature (LST) over Lake Victoria and revealed the prime importance of LST on the precipitation pattern over the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB). A suite of sensitivity experiments was conducted for the selection of an optimal combination of physics options including cumulus, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer schemes for simulating precipitation over the LVB. The WRF-POM coupled system made a great performance on simulating the expected LST, which is featured with eastward temperature gradient as in the real bathymetry of the lake. Under thorough examination of diagnostic analysis, a distinguished diurnal phenomenon has been unveiled. The precipitation mainly occurs during the nocturnal peak between midnight and early in the morning, which is associated with the strong land breeze circulation, when the lake temperature is warmer than the adjacent land. Further exploration of vertical velocity, surface divergence pattern, and maximum radar reflectivity confirms such conjecture. The time-longitude analysis of maximum radar reflectivity over the entire lake also shows a noticeable pattern of dominating westward propagation. Xia Sun, Lian Xie, Fredrick H. M. Semazzi, and Bin Liu Copyright © 2014 Xia Sun et al. All rights reserved. New Role of Thermal Mapping in Winter Maintenance with Principal Components Analysis Tue, 09 Sep 2014 08:11:13 +0000 Thermal mapping uses IR thermometry to measure road pavement temperature at a high resolution to identify and to map sections of the road network prone to ice occurrence. However, measurements are time-consuming and ultimately only provide a snapshot of road conditions at the time of the survey. As such, there is a need for surveys to be restricted to a series of specific climatic conditions during winter. Typically, five to six surveys are used, but it is questionable whether the full range of atmospheric conditions is adequately covered. This work investigates the role of statistics in adding value to thermal mapping data. Principal components analysis is used to interpolate between individual thermal mapping surveys to build a thermal map (or even a road surface temperature forecast), for a wider range of climatic conditions than that permitted by traditional surveys. The results indicate that when this approach is used, fewer thermal mapping surveys are actually required. Furthermore, comparisons with numerical models indicate that this approach could yield a suitable verification method for the spatial component of road weather forecasts—a key issue currently in winter road maintenance. Mario Marchetti, Lee Chapman, Abderrahmen Khalifa, and Michel Buès Copyright © 2014 Mario Marchetti et al. All rights reserved.