Advances in Meteorology The latest articles from Hindawi Publishing Corporation © 2016 , Hindawi Publishing Corporation . All rights reserved. Climate Change Detection and Annual Extreme Temperature Analysis of the Amur River Basin Thu, 25 Aug 2016 08:56:14 +0000 This paper aims to detect climate change points and compare the extreme temperature changes with the average-value changes in the Amur River basin. The daily air temperatures of 44 stations in the Amur River basin were collected from April 1, 1954, to March 31, 2013. The change points for annual mean and extreme temperature in 44 individual stations and their average were detected by the Mann-Kendall test, respectively. The annual mean temperature changed during 1980s in terms of increased mean value and relative stable standard deviation. The annual maximum temperature from 31 stations mostly located in the central and northwest basin changed significantly, and their change points occurred mainly in 1990s. For the annual minimum temperature, 32 stations mainly located in the central basin had significant changes. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to the postchange point subseries of annual extreme temperature and the parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The 10/50/100-year return levels were estimated by the method of profile likelihood. For the areas in the central and Northwestern basin, the probability of occurrence of hot extremes increased, while the occurrence probability of cold extremes was decreased in the central basin under climate change. Bo Yan, Ziqiang Xia, Feng Huang, Lidan Guo, and Xiao Zhang Copyright © 2016 Bo Yan et al. All rights reserved. Long-Term Simulation of Daily Streamflow Using Radar Rainfall and the SWAT Model: A Case Study of the Gamcheon Basin of the Nakdong River, Korea Wed, 24 Aug 2016 14:20:53 +0000 In recent years, with the increasing need for improving the accuracy of hydrometeorological data, interests in rain-radar are also increasing. Accordingly, with high spatiotemporal resolution of rain-radar rainfall data and increasing accumulated data, the application scope of rain-radar rainfall data into hydrological fields is expanding. To evaluate the hydrological applicability of rain-radar rainfall data depending on the characteristics of hydrological model, this study applied and to a SWAT model in the Gamcheon stream basin of the Nakdong River and analyzed the effect of rainfall data on daily streamflow simulation. The daily rainfall data for , , and were utilized as input data for the SWAT model. As a result of the daily runoff simulation for analysis periods using and , the simulation which utilized reflected the rainfall-runoff characteristics better than the simulations which applied or . However, in the rainy or wet season, the simulations which utilized or were similar to or better than the simulation that applied . This study reveals that analysis results and degree of accuracy depend significantly on rainfall characteristics (rainy season and dry season) and QPE algorithms when conducting a runoff simulation with radar. Huiseong Noh, Jongso Lee, Narae Kang, Dongryul Lee, Hung Soo Kim, and Soojun Kim Copyright © 2016 Huiseong Noh et al. All rights reserved. Variation of Main Phenophases in Phenological Calendar in East China and Their Response to Climate Change Tue, 23 Aug 2016 17:09:47 +0000 Based on the phenological data from China Phenological Observation Network, we compiled the phenological calendars of 3 phenological observation stations (Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hefei) in East China for 1987–1996 and 2003–2012 according to the sequences of mean phenophases. We calculated the correlated coefficient and the root mean square error (RMSE) between phenophases and the beginning of meteorological seasons to determine the beginning date of phenological season. By comparing new phenological calendars with the old ones, we discussed the variation of phenophases and their responses to temperature. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The beginning dates of spring and summer advanced, while those of autumn and winter delayed. Thus, summers got longer and winters got shorter. (2) The beginning time of the four phenological seasons was advancing during 1987–1996, while it was delaying during 2003–2012. (3) Most spring and summer phenophases occur earlier and most autumn and winter phenophases occur later in 2003–2012 than in 1987–1996. (4) The beginning time of phenological seasons was significantly correlated with temperature. The phenological sensitivities to temperature ranged from −6.49 to −6.55 days/°C in spring, −3.65 to −5.02 days/°C in summer, 8.13 to 10.27 days/°C in autumn, and 4.76 to 10.00 days/°C in winter. Fengyi Zheng, Zexing Tao, Yachen Liu, Yunjia Xu, Junhu Dai, and Quansheng Ge Copyright © 2016 Fengyi Zheng et al. All rights reserved. Soil Moisture Assimilation Using a Modified Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Based on Station Observations in the Hai River Basin Thu, 18 Aug 2016 11:59:32 +0000 Assimilating observations to a land surface model can further improve soil moisture estimation accuracy. However, assimilation results largely rely on forecast error and generally cannot maintain a water budget balance. In this study, shallow soil moisture observations are assimilated into Common Land Model (CoLM) to estimate the soil moisture in different layers. A proposed forecast error inflation and water balance constraint are adopted in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter to reduce the analysis error and water budget residuals. The assimilation results indicate that the analysis error is reduced and the water imbalance is mitigated with this approach. Guocan Wu, Bo Dan, and Xiaogu Zheng Copyright © 2016 Guocan Wu et al. All rights reserved. Numerical Simulation of Urban Waterlogging Based on FloodArea Model Tue, 16 Aug 2016 07:06:09 +0000 Assessment of urban water logging risk depth is mainly based on extreme value of rainstorm and its occurrence frequency as disaster causing factor. Regional waterlogging disaster risk assessment can be determined through regional geographic spatial information coupling calculation; the fundamental reason lies in the lack of an effective method for numerical simulation of waterlogging risk depth. Based on the hydrodynamic principle, FloodArea model realizes the numerical simulation of regional waterlogging depth by hydrologic calculating of runoff generation and runoff concentration of waterlogging. Taking risk assessment in Nanchang city as an example, spatial distribution of urban waterlogging depth was simulated by using FloodArea model in return period of 5 years, 10 years, 50 years, and 100 years. Research results show that FloodArea model can simulate urban waterlogging forming process and spatial distribution qualitatively. Fengchang Xue, Minmin Huang, Wei Wang, and Lin Zou Copyright © 2016 Fengchang Xue et al. All rights reserved. Numerical Forecasting Experiment of the Wave Energy Resource in the China Sea Mon, 15 Aug 2016 08:21:59 +0000 The short-term forecasting of wave energy is important to provide guidance for the electric power operation and power transmission system and to enhance the efficiency of energy capture and conversion. This study produced a numerical forecasting experiment of the China Sea wave energy using WAVEWATCH-III (WW3, the latest version 4.18) wave model driven by T213 (WW3-T213) and T639 (WW3-T639) wind data separately. Then the WW3-T213 and WW3-T639 were verified and compared to build a short-term wave energy forecasting structure suited for the China Sea. Considering the value of wave power density (WPD), “wave energy rose,” daily and weekly total storage and effective storage of wave energy, this study also designed a series of short-term wave energy forecasting productions. Results show that both the WW3-T213 and WW3-T639 exhibit a good skill on the numerical forecasting of the China Sea WPD, while the result of WW3-T639 is much better. Judging from WPD and daily and weekly total storage and effective storage of wave energy, great wave energy caused by cold airs was found. As there are relatively frequent cold airs in winter, early spring, and later autumn in the China Sea and the surrounding waters, abundant wave energy ensues. Chong Wei Zheng, Chong Yin Li, Xuan Chen, and Jing Pan Copyright © 2016 Chong Wei Zheng et al. All rights reserved. Future Changes in Drought Characteristics under Extreme Climate Change over South Korea Thu, 11 Aug 2016 16:17:20 +0000 This study attempts to analyze several drought features in South Korea from various perspectives using a three-month standard precipitation index. In particular, this study aims to evaluate changes in spatial distribution in terms of frequency and severity of droughts in the future due to climate change, using IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) GCM (general circulation model) simulations. First, the Mann-Kendall method was adopted to identify drought trends at the five major watersheds. The simulated temporal evolution of SPI (standardized precipitation index) during the winter showed significant drying trends in most parts of the watersheds, while the simulated SPI during the spring showed a somewhat different feature in the GCMs. Second, this study explored the low-frequency patterns associated with drought by comparing global wavelet power, with significance test. Future spectra decreased in the fractional variance attributed to a reduction in the interannual band from 2 to 8 years. Finally, the changes in the frequency and the severity under climate change were evaluated through the drought spell analyses. Overall features of drought conditions in the future showed a tendency to increase (about 6%) in frequency and severity of droughts during the dry season (i.e., from October to May) under climate change. Joo-Heon Lee, Hyun-Han Kwon, Ho-Won Jang, and Tae-Woong Kim Copyright © 2016 Joo-Heon Lee et al. All rights reserved. Evaluation and Correction of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast by Storm-Scale NWP Model in Jiangsu, China Thu, 11 Aug 2016 14:24:56 +0000 With the development of high-performance computer systems and data assimilation techniques, storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are gradually used for short-term deterministic forecasts. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate and correct precipitation forecasts of a storm-scale NWP model called the advanced regional prediction system (ARPS). The evaluation and correction consider five heavy precipitation events that occurred in the summer of 2015 in Jiangsu, China. The performances of the original and corrected ARPS precipitation forecasts are evaluated as a function of lead time using standard measurements and a spatial verification method called Structure-Amplitude-Location (SAL). In general, the ARPS could not produce optimal forecasts for very short lead times, and the forecast accuracy improves with increasing lead time. The ARPS overestimates precipitation for all lead times, which is confirmed by large bias in many forecasts in the first and second quadrant of the diagram of SAL, especially at the 1 h lead time. The amplitude correction is performed by matching percentile values of the ARPS precipitation forecasts and observations for each lead time. Amplitude correction significantly improved the ARPS precipitation forecasts in terms of the considered performance indices of standard measures and A-component and S-component of SAL. Gaili Wang, Dan Wang, Ji Yang, and Liping Liu Copyright © 2016 Gaili Wang et al. All rights reserved. On the Linkage between the Extreme Drought and Pluvial Patterns in China and the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Tue, 09 Aug 2016 13:21:14 +0000 China is a nation that is affected by a multitude of natural disasters, including droughts and floods. In this paper, the variations of extreme drought and pluvial patterns and their relations to the large-scale atmospheric circulation have been analyzed based on monthly precipitation data from 483 stations during the period 1958–2010 in China. The results show the following: the extreme drought and pluvial events in China increase significantly during that period. During 1959–1966 timeframe, more droughts occur in South China and more pluvial events are found in North China (DSC-PNC pattern); as for the period 1997–2003 (PSC-DNC pattern), the situation is the opposite. There are good relationships among the extreme drought and pluvial events and the Western Pacific Subtropical High, meridional atmospheric moisture flux, atmospheric moisture content, and summer precipitation. A cyclone atmospheric circulation anomaly occurs in North China, followed by an obvious negative height anomaly and a southern wind anomaly at 850 hPa and 500 hPa for the DSC-PNC pattern during the summer, and a massive ascending airflow from South China extends to North China at ~50∘N. As for the PSC-DNC pattern, the situation contrasts sharply with the DSC-PNC pattern. Zengxin Zhang, Qiu Jin, Xi Chen, Chong-Yu Xu, and Shanshan Jiang Copyright © 2016 Zengxin Zhang et al. All rights reserved. West Africa Extreme Rainfall Events and Large-Scale Ocean Surface and Atmospheric Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic Sun, 31 Jul 2016 13:41:22 +0000 Based on daily precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data during April–October of the 1997–2014 period, the daily extreme rainfall trends and variability over West Africa are characterized using 90th-percentile threshold at each grid point. The contribution of the extreme rainfall amount reaches ~50–90% in the northern region while it is ~30–50% in the south. The yearly cumulated extreme rainfall amount indicates significant and negative trends in the 6°N–12°N; 6°N–12°N; 17°W–10°W and 4°N–7°N; 4°N–7°N; 6°E–10°E 4°N–7°N; 6°E–10°E 4°N–7°N; 6°E–10°E domains, while the number of days exhibits nonsignificant trends over West Africa. The empirical orthogonal functions performed on the standardized anomalies show four variability modes that include all West Africa with a focus on the Sahelian region, the eastern region including the south of Nigeria, the western part including Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea-Bissau, and finally a small region at the coast of Ghana and Togo. These four modes are influenced differently by the large-scale ocean surface and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic. The results are applicable in planning the risks associated with these climate hazards, particularly on water resource management and civil defense. S. Ta, K. Y. Kouadio, K. E. Ali, E. Toualy, A. Aman, and F. Yoroba Copyright © 2016 S. Ta et al. All rights reserved. Retrieval of Land Surface Model State Variables through Assimilating Screen Level Humidity and Temperature Measurements Sun, 31 Jul 2016 11:27:40 +0000 This study demonstrates successful variational retrieval of land surface states by assimilating screen level atmospheric measurements of specific humidity and air temperature. To this end, the land surface scheme is first validated against the Oklahoma Atmospheric Surface Layer Instrumentation System measurements with necessary refinements to the forward model implemented. The retrieval scheme involves a 1D land surface-atmosphere model, the corresponding adjoint codes, and a cost function that measures residuals between observed and modeled screen level atmospheric temperature and specific humidity. The retrieval scheme is robust when subjected to observational errors with magnitudes comparable to instrument accuracy and for initial guess errors larger than typical model forecast errors. Using varying assimilation window lengths centered on different periods of a day, the sampling strategy is assessed. The daytime observations are more informative compared to nocturnal observations. An assimilation window as narrow as four hours, if centered on local noon, contains comparable information to an expanded window covering the whole day. There exists an optimal assimilation window length resulting from the contest between degrading forecast accuracy and increasing information content. For an assimilation window less than two days, the “optimal” assimilation window length is inversely proportional to the data ingesting frequency. Diandong Ren and Ming Xue Copyright © 2016 Diandong Ren and Ming Xue. All rights reserved. Development and Application of Urban Landslide Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Reflecting Social and Economic Variables Sun, 31 Jul 2016 09:19:40 +0000 An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale), and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions. Yoonkyung Park, Ananta Man Singh Pradhan, Ungtae Kim, Yun-Tae Kim, and Sangdan Kim Copyright © 2016 Yoonkyung Park et al. All rights reserved. Advances in Boundary-Layer/Air Pollution Meteorology Tue, 26 Jul 2016 07:45:40 +0000 Xiao-Ming Hu, Jianping Huang, Jose D. Fuentes, Renate Forkel, and Ning Zhang Copyright © 2016 Xiao-Ming Hu et al. All rights reserved. Improving the Predictability of Severe Convective Weather Processes by Using Wind Vectors and Potential Temperature Changes: A Case Study of a Severe Thunderstorm Tue, 19 Jul 2016 06:22:20 +0000 Strong, local convective weather events are capable of causing extensive damage, but weather observation systems with limited resolution and radar monitoring can typically provide only a few minutes to hours of prior warning time. This paper presents a comprehensive case study of the cumulative evolution of several characteristic quantities during one extremely severe convective weather process. The research results indicate that the main feature of strong convective weather is the uneven distribution of thermal energy in the atmosphere, and the structure of this heat distribution determines the level of instability in the atmosphere. A vertical “clockwise rolling current” occurs in the wind field structure at the beginning of the process, and this is accompanied by a rapid drop in temperature at the top of the troposphere. When these signs occurred in the case study, radar technology was used to refine the precipitation region and spatial characteristics of the approaching storm. The height and vertical evolution of radar echoes were indicative of the characteristics of the system’s movement through space. Such findings may be useful for improving the forecasting times for strong convective weather. Hao Wang, Gangyi Chen, Huanhuan Lei, Yongqian Wang, and Shunxian Tang Copyright © 2016 Hao Wang et al. All rights reserved. Evaluation of Air Quality Model Performance for Simulating Long-Range Transport and Local Pollution of PM2.5 in Japan Thu, 14 Jul 2016 06:21:57 +0000 The Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v5.0.2 was applied to PM2.5 simulation in Japan, which is strongly affected by long-range transport (LRT) from anthropogenic sources in the Asian Continent, for one year from April 2010 to March 2011. The model performance for LRT and local pollution (LP) of PM2.5 was evaluated to identify the model processes that need to be improved. CMAQ well simulated temporal and spatial variation patterns of PM2.5 but underestimated the concentration level by 15% on average. The contribution of LRT was estimated from the difference between the baseline simulation case and a zero-emission case for anthropogenic emissions in the continent. The estimated LRT contribution to PM2.5 was 50% on average and generally higher in the western areas of Japan (closer to the continent). Days that were dominantly affected by LRT or LP were determined based on the contribution of LRT to sulfate, which was fairly well simulated and strongly affected by LRT among major PM2.5 components. The underestimation of PM2.5 was larger in LP days (by 26% on average) than LRT days (by 10% on average). Therefore, it is essential to improve local emissions, formation, and loss processes of precursors and PM2.5 in Japan. Hikari Shimadera, Tatsuya Kojima, and Akira Kondo Copyright © 2016 Hikari Shimadera et al. All rights reserved. Evaluation of Relations between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature in Observational Time Series from the Czech Republic Mon, 11 Jul 2016 14:12:10 +0000 The intensity of precipitation extremes is expected to increase as the climate warms and it may cause floods and increase erosion. From the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (CC) it follows that the maximum moisture content of the atmosphere increases by approximately 7% per degree as temperature rises. However, the increases in observed hourly precipitation extremes of approximately two times the CC relation were described recently. This super CC scaling is attributed to the increased prevalence of convective rainfall and decreased prevalence of stratiform rainfall as temperatures increase. We carried out the disaggregation of precipitation into prevailing stratiform and convective component on the observational data from the Czech Republic for 1966–2006. Then, we analyzed trends in characteristics of disaggregated events and assessed correlation of precipitation intensities with daily mean temperature. The results suggest the increasing trend of convective precipitation in summer. The scaling for total rain events is steeper than for the events with prevailing convective component and for the events with prevailing stratiform component. It is a result of mixing of the two storm types. At higher temperature the events with prevailing convective component prevail and vice versa. Marta Martinkova and Martin Hanel Copyright © 2016 Marta Martinkova and Martin Hanel. All rights reserved. A Three-Parameter S-Shaped Function of Flood Return Period and Damage Sun, 10 Jul 2016 12:42:06 +0000 With growing flood risk due to increased urbanization, flood damage assessment and flood risk management must be reconsidered. To demonstrate and assess the new features and trends of flood risk in urbanized areas, a novel S-shaped function of return period and damage is proposed. The function contains three parameters, which are defined as the maximum flood damage , critical return period , and integrated loss coefficient . A basic framework for flood damage assessment was established to evaluate flood damage in the Taihu Basin under various scenarios. The simulation results were used to construct the flood functions. The study results show that the flood model based on the Gompertz function agrees well with the mutability of flood damage in the highly urbanized basin when the flood scale exceeds the defense capability. The function can be utilized for timely and effective flood damage assessment and prediction. It can describe the impacts of socioeconomic development, urbanization degree, and flood control capability improvements well. The turning points of the function curve can be used as gradation criteria for rational strategy development associated with flood hazards. Chaochao Li, Xiaotao Cheng, Na Li, Zhongmin Liang, Yanyan Wang, and Song Han Copyright © 2016 Chaochao Li et al. All rights reserved. Hydrological Hazards in a Changing Environment: Early Warning, Forecasting, and Impact Assessment Sun, 10 Jul 2016 08:36:10 +0000 Slavisa Trajkovic, Ozgur Kisi, Momcilo Markus, Hossein Tabari, Milan Gocic, and Shahaboddin Shamshirband Copyright © 2016 Slavisa Trajkovic et al. All rights reserved. The Implication of Climate Signal for Precipitation in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China Mon, 04 Jul 2016 10:11:38 +0000 This paper studies the stochastic dynamic variability of precipitation, for the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Heihe River basin in Northwest China, by employing Mann-Kendall statistic, Pettitt test, and wavelet transform methods. The possible associations with three prominent climatic patterns, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are examined by using multiscale wavelet coherence method. No significant trend is identified for the interannual precipitation variability. However, about 2-year significant variability is detected for the lower reach of the Heihe River basin, and this dominating precipitation variability is essentially depicted by AO. The possible influences of ENSO are exerted on long-term timescale, 8–16 years. The obtained knowledge is helpful for the predications of extreme hydroclimatological events and better reservoir operations for regional water resources. Fei Wang and Jun Niu Copyright © 2016 Fei Wang and Jun Niu. All rights reserved. Reconstruction of Typhoon Structure Using 3-Dimensional Doppler Radar Radial Velocity Data with the Multigrid Analysis: A Case Study in an Idealized Simulation Context Thu, 30 Jun 2016 13:24:43 +0000 Extracting multiple-scale observational information is critical for accurately reconstructing the structure of mesoscale circulation systems such as typhoon. The Space and Time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS) with multigrid data assimilation developed in Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has addressed this issue. Previous studies have shown the capability of STMAS to retrieve multiscale information in 2-dimensional Doppler radar radial velocity observations. This study explores the application of 3-dimensional (3D) Doppler radar radial velocities with STMAS for reconstructing a 3D typhoon structure. As for the first step, here, we use an idealized simulation framework. A two-scale simulated “typhoon” field is constructed and referred to as “truth,” from which randomly distributed conventional wind data and 3D Doppler radar radial wind data are generated. These data are used to reconstruct the synthetic 3D “typhoon” structure by the STMAS and the traditional 3D variational (3D-Var) analysis. The degree by which the “truth” 3D typhoon structure is recovered is an assessment of the impact of the data type or analysis scheme being evaluated. We also examine the effects of weak constraint and strong constraint on STMAS analyses. Results show that while the STMAS is superior to the traditional 3D-Var for reconstructing the 3D typhoon structure, the strong constraint STMAS can produce better analyses on both horizontal and vertical velocities. Hongli Fu, Xinrong Wu, Wei Li, Yuanfu Xie, Guijun Han, and Shaoqing Zhang Copyright © 2016 Hongli Fu et al. All rights reserved. Estimating the Surface Air Temperature by Remote Sensing in Northwest China Using an Improved Advection-Energy Balance for Air Temperature Model Wed, 29 Jun 2016 10:53:30 +0000 To estimate the surface air temperature by remote sensing, the advection-energy balance for the surface air temperature (ADEBAT) model is developed which assumes the surface air temperature is driven by the local driving force and the advective driving force. The local driving force produces a local surface air temperature whereas the advective driving force changes it by adding an exotic air temperature. An advection factor is defined to measure the quantity of the exotic air brought by the advection. Since the is determined by the advection, this paper improves it to a regional scale by using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method whereas the original ADEBAT model uses a constant of for a block of area. Results retrieved by the improved ADEBAT (IADEBAT) model are evaluated and comparison was made with the in situ measurements, with an (correlation coefficient) of 0.77, an RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 0.31 K, and a MAE (Mean Absolute Error) of 0.24 K. The evaluation shows that the IADEBAT model has higher accuracy than the original ADEBAT model. Evaluations together with a -test of the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) reveal that the IADEBAT model has a significant improvement. Suhua Liu, Hongbo Su, Renhua Zhang, Jing Tian, and Weizhen Wang Copyright © 2016 Suhua Liu et al. All rights reserved. Evapotranspiration Trend and Its Relationship with Precipitation over the Loess Plateau during the Last Three Decades Wed, 29 Jun 2016 05:50:39 +0000 There have been few studies conducted on the changes in actual ET over the Loess Plateau, due to the lack of reliable ET data. Based on ET data simulated by the Community Land Model, the present study analyzed the changes in ET over the Loess Plateau. The results showed the domain-average ET to have decreased in the past 31 years, at a rate of 0.78 mm year−1. ET fluctuated much more strongly in the 1990s than in the 1980s and 2000s, and, apart from in autumn, ET decreased in all seasons. In particular, ET in summer comprised about half of the annual ET trend and had the sharpest trend, dominating the interannual decline. ET also decreased more sharply in the semiarid than semihumid regions. The declining trend of ET was attributed to declining precipitation and air humidity. Locally, the ET trend was closely related to local mean annual precipitation: in areas with precipitation less than 400 mm, ET showed a decreasing trend; in areas with precipitation larger than 600 mm, ET showed an increasing trend; and in areas with precipitation in the range of 400–600 mm could be classified as a transitional zone. Zesu Yang, Qiang Zhang, and Xiaocui Hao Copyright © 2016 Zesu Yang et al. All rights reserved. Standardized Water Budget Index and Validation in Drought Estimation of Haihe River Basin, North China Tue, 28 Jun 2016 15:42:49 +0000 The physical-based drought indices such as the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) with the fixed time scale is inadequate for the multiscalar drought assessment, and the multiscalar drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on the meteorological factors are lack of physical mechanism and cannot depict the actual water budget. To fill this gap, the Standardized Water Budget Index (SWBI) is constructed based on the difference between areal precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (AET), which can describe the actual water budget but also assess the drought at multiple time scales. Then, sc-PDSI was taken as the reference drought index to compare with multiscalar drought indices at different time scale in Haihe River basin. The result shows that SWBI correlates better with sc-PDSI and the RMSE of SWBI is less than other multiscalar drought indices. In addition, all of drought indices show a decreasing trend in Haihe River Basin, possibly due to the decreasing precipitation from 1961 to 2010. The decreasing trends of SWBI were significant and consistent at all the time scales, while the decreasing trends of other multiscalar drought indices are insignificant at time scale less than 3 months. Shaohua Liu, Denghua Yan, Hao Wang, Chuanzhe Li, Baisha Weng, and Tianling Qin Copyright © 2016 Shaohua Liu et al. All rights reserved. Advances in Remote Sensing and Modeling of Terrestrial Hydrometeorological Processes and Extremes Mon, 27 Jun 2016 09:05:39 +0000 Ke Zhang, Jingfeng Wang, Iftekhar Ahmed, and Prasanna H. Gowda Copyright © 2016 Ke Zhang et al. All rights reserved. Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China Thu, 23 Jun 2016 12:12:30 +0000 This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin. Ying Wu, Wensheng Wang, and Guoqing Wang Copyright © 2016 Ying Wu et al. All rights reserved. Heat-Wave Events in Spain: Air Mass Analysis and Impacts on 7Be Concentrations Wed, 22 Jun 2016 08:40:46 +0000 The present paper describes and characterizes the air mass circulation during the heat-wave events registered during the period 2005–2014 over Spain, paying special attention to the role of the Saharan circulations. Backward trajectories at 500, 1500, and 3000 m in Seville (south), Madrid (centre), and Bilbao (north) during the thirteen heat-wave events identified are analysed. Finally, the impact of the heat-wave events and of each advection pattern on 7Be activity concentrations is also analysed. The heat-wave events are characterized roughly by western, southern, and nearby advections, with a higher frequency of the first two types. The analysis shows an increase of African air masses with height, presenting a different spatial impact over Spain, with a decreasing occurrence and a decrease in the simultaneous occurrence percentage from south to north. On average, the 7Be activity concentrations during these events show an increase of concentrations in central (21%) and southern (18%) areas and a decrease in northern (13%) Spain. This increase is not associated with Saharan air masses but instead with the arrival of distant westerly air masses. M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, E. Brattich, and G. Cinelli Copyright © 2016 M. A. Hernández-Ceballos et al. All rights reserved. Attenuation Correction Effects in Rainfall Estimation at X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar: Evaluation with a Dense Rain Gauge Network Mon, 20 Jun 2016 12:05:34 +0000 The effects of attenuation correction in rainfall estimation with X-band dual-polarization radar were investigated with a dense rain gauge network. The calibration bias in reflectivity () was corrected using a self-consistency principle. The attenuation correction of and the differential reflectivity () were performed by a path integration method. After attenuation correction, and were significantly improved, and their scatter plots matched well with the theoretical relationship between and . The comparisons between the radar rainfall estimation and the rain gauge rainfall were investigated using the bulk statistics with different temporal accumulations and spatial averages. The bias significantly improves from 70% to 0% with . However, the improvement with was relatively small, from 3% to 1%. This indicated that rainfall estimation using a polarimetric variable was more robust at attenuation than was a single polarimetric variable method. The bias did not show improvement in comparisons between the temporal accumulations or the spatial averages in either rainfall estimation method. However, the random error improved from 68% to 25% with different temporal accumulations or spatial averages. This result indicates that temporal accumulation or spatial average (aggregation) is important to reduce random error. Young-A Oh, DaeHyung Lee, Sung-Hwa Jung, Kyung-Yeub Nam, and GyuWon Lee Copyright © 2016 Young-A Oh et al. All rights reserved. A Method to Assess Localized Impact of Better Floodplain Topography on Flood Risk Prediction Sun, 19 Jun 2016 06:58:25 +0000 Many studies have highlighted the need for a higher accuracy global digital elevation model (DEM), mainly in river floodplains and deltas and along coastlines. In this paper, we present a method to infer the impact of a better DEM on applications and science using the Lower Zambezi basin as a use case. We propose an analysis based on a targeted observation algorithm to evaluate potential data acquisition subregions in terms of their impact on the prediction of flood risk over the entire study area. Consequently, it becomes trivial to rank these subregions in terms of their contribution to the overall accuracy of flood prediction. The improvement from better topography data may be expressed in terms of economic output and population affected, providing a multifaceted assessment of the value of acquiring better elevation data. Our results highlight the notion that having higher resolution measurements would improve our current large-scale flood inundation prediction capabilities in the Lower Zambezi by at least 30% and significantly reduce the number of people affected as well as the economic loss associated with high magnitude flooding. We believe this procedure to be simple enough to be applied to other regions where high quality topographic and hydrodynamic data are currently unavailable. Guy J.-P. Schumann and Konstantinos M. Andreadis Copyright © 2016 Guy J.-P. Schumann and Konstantinos M. Andreadis. All rights reserved. Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate Sun, 19 Jun 2016 06:13:55 +0000 Christophe Cudennec, Alexander Gelfan, Liliang Ren, and Mohamed Slimani Copyright © 2016 Christophe Cudennec et al. All rights reserved. A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore Thu, 16 Jun 2016 12:29:48 +0000 We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i) significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000) relative to preceding (1984–1999) periods, (ii) these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii) storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv) floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard. Winston T. L. Chow, Brendan D. Cheong, and Beatrice H. Ho Copyright © 2016 Winston T. L. Chow et al. All rights reserved.