Advances in Meteorology The latest articles from Hindawi Publishing Corporation © 2016 , Hindawi Publishing Corporation . All rights reserved. Statistical Analysis of Relationship between Daytime Lidar-Derived Planetary Boundary Layer Height and Relevant Atmospheric Variables in the Semiarid Region in Northwest China Thu, 19 May 2016 08:57:55 +0000 Accurate identification of key parameters for data assimilation is important in simulating the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and structure evolution in numerical weather prediction models. In this study, surface observational data and lidar-derived PBLH on 42 cloudless days from June 2007 to May 2008 are used to quantify the statistical relationships between surface parameters and the PBLH at a semiarid climate observational site in Northwest China. The results indicate that surface upward long wave radiation, surface temperature, and surface sensible heat fluxes show strong correlations with the PBLH with correlation coefficients at a range of 0.63–0.72. But these parameters show varying correlation response time to the different stages of PBL development. Furthermore, the air temperature shows the highest correlation with the PBLH near the surface and the correlation decreases with increasing height. Ruijun Dang, Hong Li, Zhiguo Liu, and Yi Yang Copyright © 2016 Ruijun Dang et al. All rights reserved. A Simulation and Validation of CLM during Freeze-Thaw on the Tibetan Plateau Tue, 17 May 2016 07:24:44 +0000 The applicability of a new soil hydraulic property of frozen soil scheme applied in Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5), in conjunction with an impedance factor for the presence of soil ice, was validated through two offline numerical simulations conducted at Madoi (GS) and Zoige (ZS) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Sensitivity analysis was conducted via replacing the new soil hydraulic property scheme in CLM4.5 by the old one, using default CLM4.5 runs as reference. Results indicated that the new parameterization scheme ameliorated the surface dry biases at ZS but enlarged the wet biases which existed at GS site due to ignoring the gravel effect. The wetter surface condition in CLM4.5 also leads to a warmer surface soil temperature because of the greater heat capacity of liquid water. In addition, the combined impact of new soil hydraulic property schemes and the ice impedance function on the simulated soil moisture lead to the more reasonable simulation of the starting dates of freeze-thaw cycle, especially at the thawing stage. The improvements also lead to the more reasonable turbulent fluxes simulations. Meanwhile, the decreased snow cover fraction in CLM4.5 resulted in a lower albedo, which tended to increase net surface radiation compared to previous versions. Further optimizing is needed to take the gravel into account in the numerical description of thermal-hydrological interactions. Xuewei Fang, Siqiong Luo, Shihua Lyu, Boli Chen, Yu Zhang, Di Ma, and Yan Chang Copyright © 2016 Xuewei Fang et al. All rights reserved. Coupling WRF Double-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Schemes to RRTMG Radiation Scheme in Weather Research Forecasting Model Thu, 12 May 2016 12:27:53 +0000 A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and it is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. A spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased. Soo Ya Bae, Song-You Hong, and Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim Copyright © 2016 Soo Ya Bae et al. All rights reserved. Satellite Retrieval of Surface Evapotranspiration with Nonparametric Approach: Accuracy Assessment over a Semiarid Region Wed, 11 May 2016 11:49:52 +0000 Surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the key surface processes. Reliable estimation of regional ET solely from satellite data remains a challenge. This study applies recently proposed nonparametric (NP) approach to retrieve surface ET, in terms of latent heat flux (LE), over a semiarid region. The involved input parameters are surface net radiation, land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, and soil heat flux, all of which are retrievals or products of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Field observations are used as ground references, which were obtained from six eddy covariance (EC) sites with different land covers including desert, Gobi, village, orchard, vegetable field, and wetland. Our results show that the accuracy of LE retrievals varies with EC sites with a determination of coefficient from 0.02 to 0.76, a bias from −221.56 W/m2 to 143.77 W/m2, a relative error from 8.82% to 48.35%, and a root mean square error from 67.97 W/m2 to 239.55 W/m2. The error mainly resulted from the uncertainties from MODIS products or the retrieval of net radiation and soil heat flux in nonvegetated region. It highlights the importance of accurate retrieval of the input parameters from satellite data, which are the ongoing tasks of remote sensing community. Xin Pan, Yuanbo Liu, and Xingwang Fan Copyright © 2016 Xin Pan et al. All rights reserved. Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of Precipitation and Land Surface Change on Hydrological Processes through Statistical Modeling Tue, 10 May 2016 09:37:35 +0000 Precipitation variability and land surface changes are the two primary factors that affect basin hydrology, and thus estimation of their impact is of great importance for sustainable development at a catchment scale. In this study, we investigated the long-term changes in precipitation and runoff, from 1961 to 2011, in the Yihe River basin by Mann-Kendall test. A new method of trend pattern was put forward and used to identify the trends of precipitation and runoff, which indicated that the basin had a decreasing trend in annual runoff. The change point occurred in the year 1985 dividing the long-term series into two periods. Precipitation elasticity and linear regression methods were used to quantify the impact of precipitation and land surface change on runoff and provided consistent results of the percentage change in an annual runoff for the postchange period. Use of these methods reveals that the reduction in annual runoff is mainly due to precipitation variability of 56.38–67.68% and land surface change of 43.62–32.32%, as estimated by precipitation elasticity and linear regression methods, respectively. Due to the rapid growth of urbanization, the land surface change increased from 1990 to 2010. The result of this study can provide a reference for the management of regional water resources. Muhammad Saifullah, Zhijia Li, Qiaoling Li, Muhammad Zaman, and Sarfraz Hashim Copyright © 2016 Muhammad Saifullah et al. All rights reserved. A Study of the Circulation Patterns Affecting Drought and Wet Years in Central Iran Thu, 05 May 2016 08:02:53 +0000 The main objective of this research is to identify atmospheric circulation patterns involved in the occurrence of wet and dry periods using the PCA method. To this end, drought and wet periods (1982–2011) were calculated in central Iran. The results of PCA indicated that 42% of variance in geopotential height data at 500 HPa level was associated with the extension of subpolar lows elevation towards lower latitudes, which transmitted high elevation areas like Siberian highs to the south and formed high atmospheric stability in the study area. Therefore, the dominance of high elevation cores on the area was characterized by cold air descent and cloudlessness, which led to low precipitation and drought events. Moreover, the eight components in wet periods could explain 94% of data variation in geopotential height data. The results of PCA in wet period suggested that the first component with the highest frequency played a key role among circulation patterns, determining the dominant pattern in cold period of the year. Further, its negative phase indicated polar and Siberian highs with the remaining components, given the negative and positive phases of the centers, revealing atmospheric instability that entered the region from Mediterranean, Black, and Red sea, thereby marking the transition of the area from drought to the wet period. Kamal Omidvar, Mehran Fatemi, Mahdi Narangifard, and Khodakaram Hatami Bahman Beiglou Copyright © 2016 Kamal Omidvar et al. All rights reserved. Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact Wed, 04 May 2016 13:41:39 +0000 This study evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity. Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios. Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO2) and 2x CO2 conditions. As a result of this study, the increase or decrease in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified. The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity. That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased. Chulsang Yoo, Jinwook Lee, and Yonghun Ro Copyright © 2016 Chulsang Yoo et al. All rights reserved. Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes Wed, 04 May 2016 12:27:17 +0000 The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE) which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty. Baodeng Hou, Yongxiang Wu, Jianhua Wang, Kai Wu, and Weihua Xiao Copyright © 2016 Baodeng Hou et al. All rights reserved. Long-Term Precipitation Analysis and Estimation of Precipitation Concentration Index Using Three Support Vector Machine Methods Sat, 30 Apr 2016 11:30:47 +0000 The monthly precipitation data from 29 stations in Serbia during the period of 1946–2012 were considered. Precipitation trends were calculated using linear regression method. Three CLINO periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000, and 1981–2010) in three subregions were analysed. The CLINO 1981–2010 period had a significant increasing trend. Spatial pattern of the precipitation concentration index (PCI) was presented. For the purpose of PCI prediction, three Support Vector Machine (SVM) models, namely, SVM coupled with the discrete wavelet transform (SVM-Wavelet), the firefly algorithm (SVM-FFA), and using the radial basis function (SVM-RBF), were developed and used. The estimation and prediction results of these models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators, that is, root mean square error, coefficient of determination, and coefficient of efficiency. The experimental results showed that an improvement in predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved by the SVM-Wavelet approach. Moreover, the results indicated the proposed SVM-Wavelet model can adequately predict the PCI. Milan Gocic, Shahaboddin Shamshirband, Zaidi Razak, Dalibor Petković, Sudheer Ch, and Slavisa Trajkovic Copyright © 2016 Milan Gocic et al. All rights reserved. Implementation of the WSM5 and WSM6 Single Moment Microphysics Scheme into the RAMS Model: Verification for the HyMeX-SOP1 Wed, 27 Apr 2016 12:34:47 +0000 This paper shows the results of the implementation of two widely used bulk microphysics parameterizations (BMP) into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF). The schemes are the WSM5 and WSM6 (WRF-single-moment-microphysics classes 5 and 6). The RAMS is run at high horizontal resolution (4 km) over the whole Italian territory and, to mimic the operational context, it is initialized by the analysis/forecast cycle issued at 12 UTC by the European Centre for Medium Weather Range Forecast (ECMWF). The performance of the BMP is analysed for the period of September 11 to October 31, 2012, which span most of the Special Observing Period 1 (SOP1) of the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment (HyMeX). For this period a database of daily precipitation of thousands of rain gauges over the Italian territory is available. In SOP1 few hazardous events occurred over Italy and, for one of them, the model performance is shown in detail. The potential improvement gained by combining the model outputs with different BMP in a single forecast is finally explored. Stefano Federico Copyright © 2016 Stefano Federico. All rights reserved. Evapotranspiration Partitioning and Response to Abnormally Low Water Levels in a Floodplain Wetland in China Tue, 19 Apr 2016 14:39:22 +0000 Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the wetland water budget. Water level declines in Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, have caused concerns, especially during low water levels. However, how wetland ET and its partitioning respond to abnormally low water levels is unclear. In this study, wetland ET was estimated with MODIS data and meteorological data. The wetland ET partitioning and its relationship with abnormally low water levels were analyzed for 2000–2013. The results showed that the water evaporation rate () was larger than the land ET rate (); the / ranged from 0.77 to 0.99. When the water level was below 12.8 m, the ET partition ratio was larger than 1, which indicates that wetland ET comes from land surface ET more than water evaporation. The negative standardized water level index (SWI) was used to represent an abnormally low water level in the wetland. Although the monthly wetland ET decreased as the negative SWI decreased, was higher than the average under negative SWI conditions from September to December, when the water level decreased. The abnormally low water level induced more water loss from the land surface, especially when the water level decreased, which reduced the available water resources along the wetland shore. Xiaosong Zhao and Yuanbo Liu Copyright © 2016 Xiaosong Zhao and Yuanbo Liu. All rights reserved. The Relationship between the Heat Disorder Incidence Rate and Heat Stress Indices at Yamanashi Prefecture in Japan Mon, 18 Apr 2016 10:00:48 +0000 In recent years, the risk of heat disorder in daily life has increased dramatically because the thermal environment has been deteriorating. The main objective of this study was to examine regional differences in the relationship between heat disorder incidence rate and heat stress indices at Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan. Daily maximum air temperature and daily maximum WBGT were used as heat stress indices in each region. Nonlinear regression analysis was used to examine the regional difference in the relationship between the heat disorder incidence rate and heat stress indices in each region. The heat disorder incidence rate was correlated with both indices of heat stress in all regions. However, the more appropriate heat stress index for heat disorder prevention differed among regions. The distributions of heat stress indices, such as the slope of regression curve and the temperature threshold, differed in each region, irrespective of the index used. Therefore, the criteria for thermal conditions for heat disorder prevention need to be determined for each region, considering the regional characteristics of the relationship between the heat disorder incidence rate and heat stress indices. Shin Akatsuka, Tadashi Uno, and Masahiro Horiuchi Copyright © 2016 Shin Akatsuka et al. All rights reserved. Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches Sun, 17 Apr 2016 10:55:04 +0000 We developed the frost prediction models in spring in Korea using logistic regression and decision tree techniques. Hit Rate (HR), Probability of Detection (POD), and False Alarm Rate (FAR) from both models were calculated and compared. Threshold values for the logistic regression models were selected to maximize HR and POD and minimize FAR for each station, and the split for the decision tree models was stopped when change in entropy was relatively small. Average HR values were 0.92 and 0.91 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, average POD values were 0.78 and 0.80 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, and average FAR values were 0.22 and 0.28 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively. The average numbers of selected explanatory variables were 5.7 and 2.3 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively. Fewer explanatory variables can be more appropriate for operational activities to provide a timely warning for the prevention of the frost damages to agricultural crops. We concluded that the decision tree model can be more useful for the timely warning system. It is recommended that the models should be improved to reflect local topological features. Hyojin Lee, Jong A. Chun, Hyun-Hee Han, and Sung Kim Copyright © 2016 Hyojin Lee et al. All rights reserved. A Modeling Study of Impact of Emission Control Strategies on PM2.5 Reductions in Zhongshan, China, Using WRF-CMAQ Thu, 14 Apr 2016 15:31:18 +0000 A WRF-CMAQ modeling system is used to assess the impact of emission control strategies and weather conditions on haze pollution in Zhongshan, Guangdong Province, China. One-month simulations for January 2014 are completed and evaluated with the observational data. The simulations show reasonable agreement with the observations. Several sensitivity studies are completed to quantify the percentage contributions of local emissions versus regional emissions to the PM2.5 concentrations under different weather conditions. The results indicate that the contributions from local emission is higher than those of the emissions from regional transport when there is no intrusion of cold front (i.e., 58% contribution from local emission versus 42% contribution from the regional transport). The contribution of regional transport is increased to 76% when a strong cold front appears. Furthermore, the sensitivity study demonstrates that PM2.5 concentrations on the first, second, and third days are reduced by 47%, 52%, and 58%, respectively, after the local emissions are turned off when there is no intrusion of cold front. Finally, a case study shows that industrial, residential, and mobile emissions account for 24%, 22%, and 15% of the change of PM2.5, respectively, during a heavy haze pollution event in Zhongshan. Jianhua Mai, Tao Deng, Lingling Yu, Xuejiao Deng, Haobo Tan, Shiqiang Wang, and Xiantong Liu Copyright © 2016 Jianhua Mai et al. All rights reserved. Compositional Variation of PCBs, PAHs, and OCPs at Gas Phase and Size Segregated Particle Phase during Dust Incursion from the Saharan Desert in the Northwestern Anatolian Peninsula Mon, 11 Apr 2016 12:59:54 +0000 A dust incursion occurred in Istanbul on 1 February 2015 from the Saharan Desert. During this episode, 938 μg·m−3 of TSP concentration was observed. TSP concentration was 64 μg·m−3 and 78 μg·m−3 on the following two days. Particles of 3 μm were dominant during the episode; however, particles < 0.49 μm were dominant after the episode. The averages of total (gas + particle) PCB, PAH, and OCP concentrations were 279 pg·m−3, 175 ng·m−3, and 589 pg·m−3, respectively. Tri-CBs were dominant in most of the samples. Flt and Phe had the highest contribution to PAH species. β-HCH and heptachlor had the highest share in terms of OCPs. Particle phase PCBs exhibited monomodal size distribution, whereas OCPs had bimodal size distribution. PAHs exhibited either monomodal or bimodal size distribution on different days. The mass median diameter of PAHs did not change significantly during different atmospheric conditions due to their local sources. Gas/particle partitioning of each pollutant was evaluated by plotting their subcooled vapor pressure against the partitioning coefficient. From 1 to 3 February, the slope of the regression line shifted close to −1, indicating that the least favorable conditions were present during dust incursion for an equilibrium state. S. Levent Kuzu Copyright © 2016 S. Levent Kuzu. All rights reserved. Characteristics of Atmospheric Compositions in the Background Area of Yangtze River Delta during Heavy Air Pollution Episode Mon, 11 Apr 2016 09:46:16 +0000 In order to understand the formation and evolution of recurrent severe haze pollution episodes in Yangtze River Delta, China, a short comparative sampling campaign was conducted at the Lin’an background monitoring station from 25 November 2013 to 14 December 2013. The characteristic concentrations of PM2.5, black carbon, CO2, CO, and CH4 have been systematically recorded at the abovementioned site. Coupled with detailed analysis of air backward trajectories, fire spot distribution surrounding the studied site and meteorological impacts, temporal trend, diurnal variation, and intercorrelation of the aforementioned species have also been comprehensively investigated throughout prehaze, haze, and posthaze periods. Hong-Hui Xu, Jing-Jiao Pu, Jun He, Jie Liu, Bing Qi, and Rong-Guang Du Copyright © 2016 Hong-Hui Xu et al. All rights reserved. National Environmental Meteorological Services in China Wed, 06 Apr 2016 14:17:15 +0000 The environmental meteorological services in China are concerned with atmospheric environmental quality, which is directly related to human activities and affects human health. In recent years, air pollution and other environmental problems have attracted nationwide attention in China, so the environmental meteorological services have been developed rapidly. To provide better meteorological monitoring and forecasting services, the Environmental Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration was established in March 2014 by integrating the resources of various national service units. We review the development of China’s national environmental meteorological services and highlight their current status including major technological capabilities. We also explore future trends of the national environmental meteorological services by analysing deficiencies, gaps in supply and demand, and capabilities of the current environmental meteorological services. Zhiming Kang, Hailin Gui, Cong Hua, Bihui Zhang, Hengde Zhang, Mengyao Lv, and Jikang Wang Copyright © 2016 Zhiming Kang et al. All rights reserved. Accelerating the SCE-UA Global Optimization Method Based on Multi-Core CPU and Many-Core GPU Wed, 06 Apr 2016 06:57:16 +0000 The famous global optimization SCE-UA method, which has been widely used in the field of environmental model parameter calibration, is an effective and robust method. However, the SCE-UA method has a high computational load which prohibits the application of SCE-UA to high dimensional and complex problems. In recent years, the hardware of computer, such as multi-core CPUs and many-core GPUs, improves significantly. These much more powerful new hardware and their software ecosystems provide an opportunity to accelerate the SCE-UA method. In this paper, we proposed two parallel SCE-UA methods and implemented them on Intel multi-core CPU and NVIDIA many-core GPU by OpenMP and CUDA Fortran, respectively. The Griewank benchmark function was adopted in this paper to test and compare the performances of the serial and parallel SCE-UA methods. According to the results of the comparison, some useful advises were given to direct how to properly use the parallel SCE-UA methods. Guangyuan Kan, Ke Liang, Jiren Li, Liuqian Ding, Xiaoyan He, Youbing Hu, and Mark Amo-Boateng Copyright © 2016 Guangyuan Kan et al. All rights reserved. Are GRACE-era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven by Anthropogenic Climate Change? Sun, 03 Apr 2016 11:29:50 +0000 To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. The findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record. J. T. Fasullo, D. M. Lawrence, and S. C. Swenson Copyright © 2016 J. T. Fasullo et al. All rights reserved. A Study on the Determination of Korea Affecting Tropical Cyclone Center for Best Tracking Tue, 29 Mar 2016 14:21:50 +0000 The establishment of an independent tropical cyclone (TC) position is suggested for the purpose of constructing TC best track data of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The best track process was designed with five basic stages: database, potential interval (PI), optimization, smoothing, and metadata. The PI was newly devised as a tool for expressing the uncertainty in the location of the center of the TC. This PI determined the minimum range at which the center of the TC can be adjusted and based on the analysis manual for each dataset used in the TC best tracking. Furthermore, the PI can be optimized by the differential application of the range depending on the reliability of the data. By smoothing all TC centers within the optimized PI, a best track can be produced more stably. Therefore, the analysis can be less subjective even when the determination of the TC center is difficult. For three typhoon cases that had affected Korea in 2013 (LEEPI, KONG-REY, and DANAS), best tracks were obtained based on the suggested analysis stages and verified. The results showed that the PI was relatively large in the early development and weakening stage of the TC or when the estimation of the TC center was difficult because of interactions with the land. And the best tracking was performed well with reasonable applicability. Yumi Cha, Jinyeon Kim, Kiryong Kang, Nam-Young Kang, and Won-Tae Yun Copyright © 2016 Yumi Cha et al. All rights reserved. Spatial Estimation of Losses Attributable to Meteorological Disasters in a Specific Area (105.0°E–115.0°E, 25°N–35°N) Using Bayesian Maximum Entropy and Partial Least Squares Regression Thu, 24 Mar 2016 11:36:09 +0000 The spatial mapping of losses attributable to such disasters is now well established as a means of describing the spatial patterns of disaster risk, and it has been shown to be suitable for many types of major meteorological disasters. However, few studies have been carried out by developing a regression model to estimate the effects of the spatial distribution of meteorological factors on losses associated with meteorological disasters. In this study, the proposed approach is capable of the following: (a) estimating the spatial distributions of seven meteorological factors using Bayesian maximum entropy, (b) identifying the four mapping methods used in this research with the best performance based on the cross validation, and (c) establishing a fitted model between the PLS components and disaster losses information using partial least squares regression within a specific research area. The results showed the following: (a) best mapping results were produced by multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy with probabilistic soft data; (b) the regression model using three PLS components, extracted from seven meteorological factors by PLS method, was the most predictive by means of PRESS/SS test; (c) northern Hunan Province sustains the most damage, and southeastern Gansu Province and western Guizhou Province sustained the least. F. S. Zhang, S. B. Zhong, Z. T. Yang, C. Sun, C. L. Wang, and Q. Y. Huang Copyright © 2016 F. S. Zhang et al. All rights reserved. Propagation of Drought: From Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Wed, 23 Mar 2016 13:00:09 +0000 Wen Wang, Maurits W. Ertsen, Mark D. Svoboda, and Mohsin Hafeez Copyright © 2016 Wen Wang et al. All rights reserved. Searching for an Added Value of Precipitation in Downscaled Seasonal Hindcasts over East Africa: COSMO-CLM Forced by MPI-ESM Wed, 16 Mar 2016 14:33:15 +0000 Downscaling of seasonal hindcasts over East Africa with the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM (CCLM), forced by the global climate model (GCM) and MPI-ESM, is evaluated. The simulations are done for five months (May to September) for a ten-year period (2000–2009), with the evaluation performed only for June to September. The dry years, 2002 and 2009, and the wet years, 2006 and 2007, are well captured by the models. By using ground based and satellite gridded observation data for evaluation it is found that both COSMO-CLM and MPI-ESM overestimate June to September precipitation over the Ethiopian highlands and in parts of the lowland with respect to all reference datasets. In addition we investigated the potential and real added value for both the RCM and the GCM hindcasts by upscaling (arithmetic mean) the precipitation resolution both in temporal and in spatial scales, over North Ethiopia (EN), South Ethiopia (ES), South Sudan (SS), and Sudan (S). Results inferred that using the RCM for seasonal forecast adds value in capturing extreme precipitation years, especially in the Ethiopian highlands. It is also found that the potential and relative potential added value decrease with decreasing the temporal resolution. Bedassa R. Cheneka, Susanne Brienen, Kristina Fröhlich, Shakeel Asharaf, and Barbara Früh Copyright © 2016 Bedassa R. Cheneka et al. All rights reserved. Assessing the Effects of Spatial Resolution on Regional Climate Model Simulated Summer Temperature and Precipitation in China: A Case Study Wed, 16 Mar 2016 12:56:39 +0000 The regional climate model, RegCM3, is used to simulate the 2004 summer surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation at different horizontal (i.e., 30, 60, and 90 km) and vertical resolutions (i.e., 14, 18, and 23 layers). Results showed that increasing resolution evidently changes simulated SATs with regional characteristics. For example, simulated SATs are apparently better produced when horizontal resolution increases from 60 to 30 km under the 23 layers. Meanwhile, the SATs over the entire area are more sensitive to vertical resolution than horizontal resolution. The subareas present higher sensitivities than the total area, with larger horizontal resolution effects than those of vertical resolution. For precipitation, increasing resolution shows higher impact compared to SAT, with higher sensitivity induced by vertical resolution than by horizontal resolution, especially in rainy South China. The best SAT/precipitation can be produced only when the horizontal and vertical resolutions are reasonably configured. This indicates that different resolutions lead to different atmospheric thermodynamic states. Because of the dry climate and low soil heat capacity in Northern China, resolution changes easily modify surface energy fluxes, hence the SAT; due to the rainy and humid climate in South China, resolution changes likely strongly influence grid-scale structure of clouds and therefore precipitation. Xin-Min Zeng, Ming Wang, Yujian Zhang, Yang Wang, and Yiqun Zheng Copyright © 2016 Xin-Min Zeng et al. All rights reserved. Recent Intensified Winter Coldness in the Mid-High Latitudes of Eurasia and Its Relationship with Daily Extreme Low Temperature Variability Tue, 15 Mar 2016 12:01:35 +0000 Observational records in recent decades show a large-scale decrease in the cold-season temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes under continuous global warming. However, severe low temperature events in winter frequently occurred in midlatitude Eurasia (MEA) in the last decade. Here, we define a new coldness intensity (CI) index for the near-surface based on the amplitude of daily anomalously cold temperatures in winter to demonstrate the CI of the variability of low temperature extremes. The results show that a sign-consistent mode dominates the CI variation in MEA, with a marked intensification during the last decade via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. This leading mode is significantly related to the frequency of winter extreme events. The associated circulations are characterized by a remarkable anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Eurasia, which induced substantial cold advection in MEA. The widespread intensified CI in MEA is closely linked with strong surface anticyclones and synoptic blocking in the mid-high latitudes (25°E–85°E). Coincidently, positive phase shifts of the first two leading modes of the extratropical circulation, which feature similar blocking-like anomalies in the northwestern Eurasian subarctic, jointly play an important role in the recent frequency of severe winters. Chuhan Lu, Shaoqing Xie, Yujing Qin, and Jiewen Zhou Copyright © 2016 Chuhan Lu et al. All rights reserved. The Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Hazy Days in Cities of Jiangsu Province China and an Analysis of Its Causes Tue, 15 Mar 2016 09:48:12 +0000 Based on the surface meteorological data of Jiangsu Province during 1980–2012, the climatic characteristics and the trends of haze were analyzed. The results indicated that during 1980–2012 haze days increased; in particular, severe and moderate haze days significantly increased. In the northern and coastal cities of Jiangsu Province China, haze days showed a significant increase. Haze often appeared in fall and winter and rarely in summer in the study area. It also occurred more often inland, and less along the coast. Haze occurred more often in June due to straw burning in the harvest time. The haze day increased during the 1990s over southern and southwestern Jiangsu Province; in central and northern Jiangsu, haze day increased after 2000. The continuous, regional, and regional continuous haze days all showed increasing trends. As the urban area expanded each year, industrial emissions, coal consumption, and car ownership increased accordingly, resulting in regional temperature increase and relative humidity decrease, which formed the urban heat island and dry island effects. Hence, haze formation and maintenance conditions became more favorable for more haze days, which led to the increase of haze days, and the significant increases of continuous, regional, and regional continuous haze days. Jiansu Wei, Weijun Zhu, Duanyang Liu, and Xiao Han Copyright © 2016 Jiansu Wei et al. All rights reserved. Evaluation of High-Resolution Satellite-Based Real-Time and Post-Real-Time Precipitation Estimates during 2010 Extreme Flood Event in Swat River Basin, Hindukush Region Tue, 15 Mar 2016 09:38:45 +0000 Satellite-based real-time and post-real-time precipitation estimates of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42) were evaluated during an extreme heavy precipitation event (on 28–30 July 2010) over Swat River Basin and adjacent areas in Hindukush Region. Observations of 15 rain gauging stations were used for the evaluation of TMPA products. Results showed that the spatial pattern of precipitation in the event was generally captured by post-real-time product (3B42V7) but misplaced by real-time product (3B42RT), witnessed by a high spatial correlation coefficient for 3B42V7 (CC = 0.87) and low spatial correlation coefficient for 3B42RT (CC = 0.20). The temporal variation of the storm precipitation was not well captured by both TMPA products. 3B42V7 product underestimated the storm accumulated precipitation by 32.15%, while underestimation by 3B42RT was 66.73%. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the latest TMPA-based precipitation products, 3B42RT and 3B42V7, might not be able to perform well during extreme precipitation events, particularly in complex terrain regions like Hindukush Mountains. Therefore, cautions should be considered while using 3B42RT and 3B42V7 as input data source for the modelling, forecasting, and monitoring of floods and potential landslides in Hindukush Region. Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Yongjian Ding, Donghui Shangguan, Muhammad Wajid Ijaz, and Shiqiang Zhang Copyright © 2016 Muhammad Naveed Anjum et al. All rights reserved. A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook Thu, 10 Mar 2016 13:20:05 +0000 Reliable drought forecasting is necessary to develop mitigation plans to cope with severe drought. This study developed a probabilistic scheme for drought forecasting and outlook combined with quantification of the prediction uncertainties. The Bayesian network was mainly employed as a statistical scheme for probabilistic forecasting that can represent the cause-effect relationships between the variables. The structure of the Bayesian network-based drought forecasting (BNDF) model was designed using the past, current, and forecasted drought condition. In this study, the drought conditions were represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The accuracy of forecasted SPIs was assessed by comparing the observed SPIs and confidence intervals (CIs), exhibiting the associated uncertainty. Then, this study suggested the drought outlook framework based on probabilistic drought forecasting results. The overall results provided sufficient agreement between the observed and forecasted drought conditions in the outlook framework. Ji Yae Shin, Muhammad Ajmal, Jiyoung Yoo, and Tae-Woong Kim Copyright © 2016 Ji Yae Shin et al. All rights reserved. Significant Atmospheric Boundary Layer Change Observed above an Agulhas Current Warm Cored Eddy Mon, 07 Mar 2016 06:45:31 +0000 The air-sea impact of a warm cored eddy ejected from the Agulhas Retroflection region south of Africa was assessed through both ocean and atmospheric profiling measurements during the austral summer. The presence of the eddy causes dramatic atmospheric boundary layer deepening, exceeding what was measured previously over such a feature in the region. This deepening seems mainly due to the turbulent heat flux anomaly above the warm eddy inducing extensive deep and persistent changes in the atmospheric boundary layer thermodynamics. The loss of heat by turbulent processes suggests that this kind of oceanic feature is an important and persistent source of heat for the atmosphere. C. Messager and S. Swart Copyright © 2016 C. Messager and S. Swart. All rights reserved. Suitability of Water Harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia: A First Step towards a Mesoscale Hydrological Modeling Framework Sun, 28 Feb 2016 17:33:18 +0000 Extreme rainfall variability has been one of the major factors to famine and environmental degradation in Ethiopia. The potential for water harvesting in the Upper Blue Nile Basin was assessed using two GIS-based Multicriteria Evaluation methods: (1) a Boolean approach to locate suitable areas for in situ and ex situ systems and (2) a weighted overlay analysis to classify suitable areas into different water harvesting suitability levels. The sensitivity of the results was analyzed to the influence given to different constraining factors. A large part of the basin was suitable for water harvesting: the Boolean analysis showed that 36% of the basin was suitable for in situ and ex situ systems, while the weighted overlay analysis showed that 6–24% of the basin was highly suitable. Rainfall has the highest influence on suitability for water harvesting. Implementing water harvesting in nonagricultural land use types may further increase the benefit. Assessing water harvesting suitability at the larger catchment scale lays the foundation for modeling of water harvesting at mesoscale, which enables analysis of the potential and implications of upscaling of water harvesting practices for building resilience against climatic shocks. A complete water harvesting suitability study requires socioeconomic analysis and stakeholder consultation. Yihun T. Dile, Johan Rockström, and Louise Karlberg Copyright © 2016 Yihun T. Dile et al. All rights reserved.