Emergency Surgery Mortality (ESM) Score to Predict Mortality and Improve Patient Care in Emergency Surgery

Table 5

Performance of ESM score ≥4 to predict postoperative mortality in Training and Validation groups.

Parameter	Training group (n = 596)		Validation group (n = 162)
	Value	95% CI	Value	95% CI
AUC	0.83	0.77–0.89	0.81	0.70–0.92
Sensitivity (%)	70.2	59.3–79.7	69.2	48.2–85.7
Specificity (%)	94.9	92.7–96.7	93.4	87.8–96.9
Positive likelihood ratio	13.8	9.3–20.6	10.5	5.3–20.7
Negative likelihood ratio	0.3	0.2–0.4	0.3	0.2–0.6
Mortality prevalence (%)	14.1	11.4–17.2	16.1	10.8–22.6
Positive predictive value (%)	69.4	60.4–77.2	66.7	50.3–79.8
Negative predictive value (%)	95.1	93.3–96.4	94.1	89.9–96.6
Accuracy (%)	91.4	88.9–93.6	89.5	83.7–93.8

ESM: Emergency surgery mortality; AUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.