Forecasting the Population-Level Impact of Reductions in HIV Antiretroviral Therapy in Papua New Guinea
Figure 2
Fitting and calibration of the HIV transmission model to PNG epidemiological data from 1990 to 2009. In each figure, estimates or data from the PNG National Department of Health (black discs, data) are compared with 100 model-based simulations (red) and median simulations (blue) over the period from 1990 to 2009. (a) HIV prevalence in adult population. (b) HIV incidence each year per 100 persons. (c) Number of HIV diagnoses each year. (d) The cumulative number of HIV-infected people who have started antiretroviral treatment by the end of each year.
