Forecasting the Population-Level Impact of Reductions in HIV Antiretroviral Therapy in Papua New Guinea
Figure 3
The impact of reductions in ART availability. (a) Median number of HIV-infected people receiving ART for scenarios from (i) to (iv) in the text. These scenarios were a continuation of the ART roll-out after 2009, maintaining ART services so that the number of people who receive ART remains constant, a reduction in the number of people receiving treatment of 50% from the level at the end of 2009, and a reduction in the number of people receiving treatment of 90% from the level at the end of 2009. (b) Median annual incidence per 100 person-years after 2009 for 100 simulations of each of the scenarios considered. (c) Total number of advanced HIV deaths for the period 2010–2014 for all the scenarios considered. The blue bars represent the median number of deaths for scenarios from (i) to (iv) in the text with the black error bars showing the minimum and maximum number of deaths for 100 model simulations of each scenario. Similarly, the red bars represent the median number of deaths for the scenarios where ART programs and services are interrupted for two years.
