Research Article

Modelling HIV/AIDS Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

Table 2

Parameters and initial values.

Parameters Definition Value Std Source

Transmission probability of HIV per high-risk behavior
Contact rate per year
Protection rate by intervention measures (condom use)
Transmission coefficient, 0.8578 0.013 MCMC
Modification factor for HIV infected individuals with 0.7224 [5]
Modification factor for HIV infected individuals with 0.4177 [5]
Modification factor for HIV infected individuals with and receiving antiviral therapy 0.3507
Modification factor for HIV infected individuals with and receiving antiviral therapy 0.35070.028 MCMC
Modification factor for AIDS patients with antiviral therapy 0.2495 0.028 MCMC
Recruitment rate of susceptible 20764 MCMC
Natural death rate 0.0149 [11]
Exit rate of susceptible 0.025
Diagnose rate 0.0799 0.020 MCMC
Proportion of diagnosed HIV-positive individuals 0.88200.006 MCMC
Proportion of diagnosed HIV-positive individuals with 0.5879 [10]
Proportion of diagnosed HIV-positive individuals with 0.2939[10]
Progression rate from to 1/6 [10]
Progression rate from to 1/3 [10]
Progression rate from to 1/12 [12]
Progression rate from to 1/6 [12]
Antiviral therapy coverage rate for HIV-positive individuals with 0
Antiviral therapy coverage rate for HIV-positive individuals with 0.2 [13, 14]
Disease-related death rate for HIV infected individuals without receiving antiviral therapy 0.172 [15]
Disease-related death rate for HIV infected individuals with antiviral therapy 0.06 [15, 16]
Disease-related death for AIDS patients with antiviral therapy 0.136[16, 17]
Initial value of (high-risk susceptible) 87285 MCMC
Initial value of (individuals living with undiagnosed HIV) 59881274 MCMC
Initial value of (HIV-positive individuals with ) 99 Database
Initial value of (HIV-positive individuals with ) 49 Database
Initial value of (AIDS patients diagnosed at onset of AIDS symptoms) 53 Database
Initial value of (HIV-positive individuals with and receiving therapy) 0 Database
Initial value of (HIV-positive individuals with and receiving therapy) 0 Database
Initial value of (AIDS patients diagnosed before onset of AIDS symptoms) 0 Database
The basic reproduction number 3.8840 0.097 Calculated