A Universal Model for Predicting Dynamics of the Epidemics Caused by Special Pathogens

Table 1

Some parameters used for calculations of an EHF outbreak dynamics.

Resources of the model city
Population	500000
Number of medics/paramedics involved in AEA	1000
Number of teams searching for and isolating infected cases and contacts	30
Number of patients/contacts detected by one team per day	20
Reserve of drugs (for one treatment course)	1000
Bed capacity for strict isolation	100
Bed capacity in provisional hospitals	800
Bed capacity in quarantine departments for contacts	300
Parameters controlling activation of countermeasures (AEA)
AEA1 is activated
(i) At a calculated critical time moment (days of epidemic) or	20
(ii) When the number of infected persons in the final stage reaches a critical value	30
Delay in activation of AEA2 relative to AEA1 (days)	5
Delay in activation of AEA3 relative to AEA2 (days)	5
Activation of quarantine after AEA2 (days)	5
Intensity of quarantine (%)	50
Number of days without detection of any infected persons to cancel quarantine	15
Control of resource depletion	On
Resource limitations in AEA3	Canceled