The Impact of Coinfections and Their Simultaneous Transmission on Antigenic Diversity and Epidemic Cycling of Infectious Diseases
Figure 1
Influence of the number of strains, the immunity period, and the basic reproductive number on the antigenic diversity structure. Model parameters: transmission rate: day−1 and , , , and life span (1/) = 70 years. In panels (a) and (c) infectious period = 2 days and ; in panels (b) and (d) infectious period = 20 days and . In panels (a) and (b) the total prevalence overlaps with the prevalence of single infections, implying most infections are single. In panel (e) the total prevalence is well approximated by (6). Note that in panel (d) the prevalence exceeds when immunity period is around one year. This is the consequence of the assumption made in the example that the most complex coinfections are of multiplicity 4 so quadruple infections will not be further infected to become other more complex coinfections and hence its prevalence accumulated. The same phenomena also occur in Figure 3.
