The Impact of Coinfections and Their Simultaneous Transmission on Antigenic Diversity and Epidemic Cycling of Infectious Diseases
Figure 10
(a) Bifurcation diagram plotting the local maxima of (the fraction of the infective individuals with strain ) against efficiency of single transmission from coinfection. Numerical integration of the equations is illustrated at different values of : (b) 1.5 (period-2), (c) 3.9 (period-4), and (d) 5.0 (chaotic) for . In panel (b) the fraction of infective individuals with strain and that of coinfections are also included. The other parameters are immunity period = 5 years, day−1, day−1, day−1, and infectious period days. The first 100 years were discarded. Note that as increases, the trough that the infection experiences at valley becomes deeper and deeper while the epidemic interval shortens from 200 to 100 days. Here the epidemic interval is defined relatively as the interval during which the fraction of infections is maintained at >10% of its peak size. This suggests that pathogen strains will suffer the trough extinction at large values of efficiency .
