A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness

<div>ARI reports from SLP, Mexico, winter seasons of (a) 2000-2001, <svg height="16.6768pt" id="M180" style="vertical-align:-3.572pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -13.1048 46.2363 16.6768" width="46.2363pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,2.455,-3.699)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z" id="g119-17"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="470" vert-adv-y="470"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 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id="g113-56"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg>, outbreak detected at epidemiological week 8, and (b) 2003-2004, <svg height="16.6768pt" id="M182" style="vertical-align:-3.572pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -13.1048 46.2363 16.6768" width="46.2363pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,2.455,-3.699)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z" id="g119-17"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="470" vert-adv-y="470"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 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BioMed Research International

A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness

Figure 4