Cost-Effectiveness of Anticoagulation in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation with Edoxaban Compared to Warfarin in Germany

Table 1

Base-case values and ranges for probabilities of stroke, haemorrhage, myocardial infarction, and death used for sensitivity analyses of NOACs.

Variable	Edoxaban 30 mg	Edoxaban 60 mg	Reference	Dabigatran 110 mg	Dabigatran 150 mg	Reference; [5]	Rivaroxaban	Reference; [5]	Apixaban	Reference; [5]
Stroke
Annual rate of ischemic stroke (%)
NOAC	1.77 (1.58–1.96)	1.25 (1.09–1.41)	[1]	1.34 (1.13–1.55)	0.92 (0.75–1.09)	[2]	1.34 (1.12–1.55)	[3]	0.97 (0.82–1.12)	[4]
Warfarin	1.25 (1.09–1.41)	1.25 (1.09–1.41)	[1]	1.2 (1.00–1.40)	1.2 (1.00–1.40)	[2]	1.42 (1.20–1.63)	[3]	1.05 (0.89–1.21)	[4]
Ischemic strokes with warfarin or  NOAC (%)
Fatal (within 30 d)	8.20 (5.50–10.90)	8.20 (5.50–10.90)	[12, 18]	8.20 (5.50–10.90)	8.20 (5.50–10.90)	[12, 18]	8.20 (5.50–10.90)	[12, 18]	8.20 (5.50–10.90)	[12, 18]
Moderate to severe neurologic   sequelae	40.20 (35.30–45.10)	40.20 (35.30–45.10)	[12, 18]	40.20 (35.30–45.10)	40.20 (35.30–45.10)	[12, 18]	40.20 (35.30–45.10)	[12, 18]	40.20 (35.30–45.10)	[12, 18]
Mild neurologic sequelae	42.50 (37.60–47.40)	42.50 (37.60–47.40)	[12, 18]	42.50 (37.60–47.40)	42.50 (37.60–47.40)	[12, 18]	42.50 (37.60–47.40)	[12, 18]	42.50 (37.60–47.40)	[12, 18]
No residual neurologic sequelae	9.10 (6.20–12.00)	9.10 (6.20–12.00)	[12, 18]	9.10 (6.20–12.00)	9.10 (6.20–12.00)	[12, 18]	9.10 (6.20–12.00)	[12, 18]	9.10 (6.20–12.00)	[12, 18]
Hemorrhage
Annual rate of ICH (%)
NOAC	0.26 (0.18–0.34)	0.39 (0.29–0.49)	[1]	0.23 (0.14–0.32)	0.30 (0.20–0.40)	[2]	0.5 (0.37–0.63)	[3]	0.33 (0.24–0.42)	[4]
Warfarin	0.85 (0.70–0.99)	0.85 (0.70–0.99)	[1]	0.74 (0.58–0.90)	0.74 (0.58–0.90)	[2]	0.7 (0.55–0.85)	[3]	0.80 (0.66–0.94)	[4]
Annual rate of extracranial hemorrhage (%)
NOAC	1.37 (1.19–1.55)	2.36 (2.12–2.60)	[1]	2.51 (2.23–2.79)	2.84 (2.54–3.14)	[2]	3.11 (2.78–3.44)	[3]	1.79 (1.58–2.00)	[4]
Warfarin	2.6 (2.35–2.85)	2.6 (2.35–2.85)	[1]	2.67 (2.38–2.96)	2.67 (2.38–2.96)	[2]	2.71 (2.40–3.02)	[3]	2.27 (2.03–2.51)	[4]
Annual rate of major hemorrhage (%)
NOAC	1.61; (1.41–1.81)	2.75 (2.49–3.01)	[1]	2.71 (2.41–3.01)	3.11 (2.80–3.24)	[2]	3.6 (3.24–3.96)	[3]	2.13 (1.90–2.36)	[4]
Warfarin	3.34 (3.14–3.72)	3.34 (3.14–3.72)	[1]	3.36 (3.03–3.69)	3.36 (3.03–3.69)	[2]	3.4 (3.06–3.74)	[3]	3.09 (2.81–3.37)	[4]
Annual rate of minor hemorrhage (%)
NOAC	6.6 (6.18–7.02)	8.67 (8.18–9.16)	[1]	13.20 (12.51–13.81)	14.80 (14.15–15.53)	[2]	11.8 (11.13–12.47)	[3]	14.03 (13.37–14.69)	[4]
Warfarin	10.15 (9.62–10.68)	10.15 (9.62–10.68)	[1]	16.40 (15.64–17.10)	16.40 (15.64–17.10)	[2]	11.4 (10.74–12.06)	[3]	19.79 (18.96–20.62)	[4]
Myocardial infarction
Annual rate of myocardial infarction  (%)
NOAC	0.89 (0.76–1.02)	0.7 (0.58–0.82)	[1]	0.72 (0.57–0.87)	0.74 (0.59–0.89)	[2]	0.91 (0.73–1.09)	[3]	0.53 (0.42–0.64)	[4]
Warfarin	0.75 (0.63–0.87)	0.75 (0.63–0.87)	[1]	0.53 (0.40–0.66)	0.53 (0.40–0.66)	[2]	1.12 (0.92–1.32)	[3]	0.61 (0.49–0.73)	[4]
Death
Age at start (years)	65	65	Assumption	65	65	Assumption	65	Assumption	65	Assumption
Death of cardiovascular cause (%/yr)
NOAC	2.71 (2.48–2.94)	2.74 (2.51–2.97)	[1]	2.43 (2.15–2.71)	2.28 (2.01–2.55)	[2]	1.53 (1.30–1.76)	[3]	1.80 (1.60–2.00)	[4]
Warfarin	3.17 (2.92–3.42)	3.17 (2.92–3.42)	[1]	2.69 (2.39–2.99)	2.69 (2.39–2.99)	[2]	1.71 (1.47–1.95)	[3]	2.02 (1.81–2.23)	[4]
Death of causes other than cardiovascular or of unknown cause (%/yr)	Age adjusted from mortality tables (see reference)	Age adjusted from mortality tables (see reference)	[8]	Age adjusted from mortality tables (see reference)	Age adjusted from mortality tables (see reference)	[8]	Age adjusted from mortality tables (see reference)	[8]	Age adjusted from mortality tables (see reference)	[8]