Current Gerontology and Geriatrics Research

Research Article

Dynamic Determinants of Longevity and Exceptional Health

Table 1

Effect of β€œdynamic” risk factors calculated from individual trajectories of physiological indices at ages 40–60 on mortality risk at ages 60+ in the Framingham Heart Study (original cohort) estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model.
Physiological IndexRisk Factor (RF)Mean RF (St. Dev.)Cox Regression Model
Parameter (S.E.)Hazard Ratio (95% C.I.)
BG
( 𝑁 = 2 2 2 4 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 1 4 4 7 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 7 7 7 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 77.468 (20.370)0.003 (0.002)1.056 (0.978, 1.140)
S l o p e 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 0.553 (1.932) 0 . 0 5 9 βˆ— (0.029)1.088 (1.002, 1.182)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 8.518 (6.798) 0 . 0 1 7 # (0.005)1.086 (1.033, 1.141)
Sex 0 . 5 8 1 † (0.053)1.789 (1.611, 1.985)
BMI
( 𝑁 = 3 1 5 0 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 2 2 1 7 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 9 3 3 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 25.867 (4.215) 0 . 0 1 6 # (0.006)1.086 (1.020, 1.157)
S l o p e 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 0.050 (0.171) βˆ’ 0 . 3 0 5 βˆ— (0.141)0.945 (0.897, 0.995)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 0.697 (0.392) 0 . 1 7 6 # (0.060)1.074 (1.024, 1.126)
Sex 0 . 5 6 4 † (0.045)1.757 (1.610, 1.918)
HC
( 𝑁 = 2 1 6 7 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 1 3 2 3 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 8 4 4 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 45.341 (4.664) 0 . 0 8 6 † (0.011)1.622 (1.430, 1.839)
S l o p e 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 βˆ’0.026 (0.272) 0 . 9 3 2 † (0.172)1.311 (1.189, 1.446)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 1.548 (0.633) 0 . 0 8 9 βˆ— (0.044)1.073 (1.002, 1.148)
Sex 0 . 2 5 5 x (0.071)1.291 (1.123, 1.484)
PP
( 𝑁 = 3 1 5 3 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 2 2 1 9 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 9 3 4 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 44.112 (13.095) 0 . 0 2 4 † (0.002)1.349 (1.273, 1.428)
S l o p e 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 0.506 (0.846) 0 . 3 3 8 † (0.035)1.360 (1.277, 1.448)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 βˆ’ 6 0 4.815 (2.032) 0 . 0 3 6 # (0.012)1.090 (1.033, 1.150)
Sex 0 . 6 1 1 † (0.044)1.842 (1.691, 2.007)
Notes. βˆ— . 0 1 ≀ 𝑃 < . 0 5 , # . 0 0 1 ≀ 𝑃 < . 0 1 , x . 0 0 0 1 ≀ 𝑃 < . 0 0 1 , † 𝑃 < . 0 0 0 1 , for other estimates: 𝑃 β‰₯ . 0 5 ; Sex: 1β€”male, 0β€”female; the other Risk Factors are continuous and calculated as described in Section 2; 𝑁 denotes the total number of individuals; 𝑁 𝑒 is the total number of events (deaths); 𝑁 𝑐 is the total number of censored individuals; Hazard Ratios for continuous risk factors are for an increase from the first quartile to the third quartile of respective empirical distributions.