Current Gerontology and Geriatrics Research

Research Article

Dynamic Determinants of Longevity and Exceptional Health

Table 2

Effect of “dynamic” risk factors calculated from individual trajectories of physiological indices at ages 40–60 on risk of onset of “unhealthy life” at ages 60+ in the Framingham Heart Study (original cohort) estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model.
Physiological IndexRisk Factor (RF)Mean RF (St. Dev.)Cox Regression Model
Parameter (S.E.)Hazard Ratio (95% C.I.)
BMI
( 𝑁 = 2 4 5 8 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 1 8 2 4 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 6 3 4 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 − 6 0 25.587 (3.954) 0 . 0 3 6 † (0.007)1.198 (1.119, 1.283)
S l o p e 4 0 − 6 0 0.057 (0.162) 0 . 6 0 9 x (0.159)1.116 (1.055, 1.180)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 − 6 0 0.679 (0.381)0.013 (0.070)1.005 (0.953, 1.060)
Sex 0 . 5 1 1 † (0.049)1.668 (1.513, 1.837)
HC
( 𝑁 = 1 6 5 9 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 1 1 9 2 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 4 6 7 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 − 6 0 45.044 (4.641) 0 . 0 7 8 † (0.012)1.556 (1.365, 1.774)
S l o p e 4 0 − 6 0 −0.021 (0.269) 1 . 1 4 0 † (0.182)1.384 (1.250, 1.533)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 − 6 0 1.547 (0.635)0.082 (0.046)1.069 (0.993, 1.150)
Sex 0 . 2 8 7 † (0.073)1.332 (1.155, 1.536)
PP
( 𝑁 = 2 4 6 0 ,
𝑁 𝑒 = 1 8 2 5 ,
𝑁 𝑐 = 6 3 5 )		 I n t e r c e p t 4 0 − 6 0 43.612 (12.635) 0 . 0 1 8 † (0.003)1.249 (1.170, 1.334)
S l o p e 4 0 − 6 0 0.480 (0.814) 0 . 3 1 9 † (0.040)1.325 (1.237, 1.420)
V a r i a b i l i t y 4 0 − 6 0 4.667 (1.944) 0 . 0 4 6 x (0.014)1.111 (1.046, 1.181)
Sex 0 . 5 7 7 † (0.048)1.781 (1.622, 1.957)
Notes. ∗ . 0 1 ≤ 𝑃 < . 0 5 , # . 0 0 1 ≤ 𝑃 < . 0 1 , x . 0 0 0 1 ≤ 𝑃 < . 0 0 1 , † 𝑃 < . 0 0 0 1 , for other estimates: 𝑃 ≥ . 0 5 ; Sex: 1—male, 0—female; the other Risk Factors are continuous and calculated as described in Section 2; 𝑁 denotes the total number of individuals; 𝑁 𝑒 is the total number of events (onset of “unhealthy life”); 𝑁 𝑐 is the total number of censored individuals; Hazard Ratios for continuous risk factors are for an increase from the first quartile to the third quartile of respective empirical distributions.