Research Article
Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
Table 4
Parameters from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for trauma, nontrauma, and pediatric visits (January, 2005โDecember, 2008).
| Parameters | Coefficient | | value |
|
ARIMA model (1,0,2) for forecasting trauma visits | Mean maximum temperature | โ6.2110 | โ1.545 | 0.131 | Mean minimum temperature | 6.8860 | 4.383 | <0.001 | Relative humidity | โ0.5100 | โ0.360 | 0.721 | Accumulated rainfall | 0.0210 | 1.479 | 0.147 | Stock index fluctuation | 0.0990 | 5.026 | <0.001 |
|
ARIMA model (1,0,2) for forecasting nontraumatic visits | Mean maximum temperature | 0.1380 | 5.211 | <0.001 | Mean minimum temperature | โ0.0120 | โ0.835 | 0.409 | Relative humidity | 0.0280 | 2.518 | 0.016 | Accumulated rainfall | 0.0001 | 0.281 | 0.780 | Stock index fluctuation | 0.0010 | 3.351 | 0.002 |
|
ARIMA model (0, 2, 1) for forecasting pediatric visits | Mean maximum temperature | 0.1320 | 3.449 | <0.001 | Mean minimum temperature | โ0.0065 | โ4.444 | <0.001 | Relative humidity | 0.0040 | 2.552 | 0.015 | Accumulated rainfall | 0.0001 | 0.921 | 0.363 | Stock index fluctuation | 0.0001 | 1.606 | 0.116 |
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