The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg: Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential
Figure 1
A single simulation run and the joint estimation results of the case fatality ratio and the exponential growth rate. The assigned CFR value is 0.5%, and the exponential growth rate is set at 0.15 per day. ((a) and (b)) Incidence of confirmed cases and deaths as a function of epidemic days. The epidemic day 0 is the date on which an index case is infected. The numbers of confirmed cases and deaths increase exponentially. ((c) and (d)) The maximum likelihood estimates of (c) the exponential growth rate and (d) the case fatality ratio with the 95% confidence intervals. The 95% confidence intervals were computed by employing the profile likelihood. Unfilled circles are the maximum likelihood estimates accompanied by the whiskers extending to lower and upper 95% confidence intervals. The dotted horizontal line shows the assigned parameter value.
