Tactics and Strategies for Managing Ebola Outbreaks and the Salience of Immunization

Figure 3

(a) Proportion of individuals vaccinated is plotted over 300 days. (b)–(e) Histograms (proportions in each size class sum to 1) of epidemic sizes (number of cases) over 100 repeated simulations, using the basic parameters (Table S1) with values for as specified. (b) When = 0 (no vaccination), outbreaks range from >4000 through a mode of 1000–1999, a mean of 1263 cases and a small number of fadeouts (category 1–9 cases). (c) When = 0.05, the mode is now in the 100–999 range and the mean is 759 cases. (d) When = 0.10, very few outbreaks exceed 999 and the mean is 350 cases. (e) When = 0.20, the cases are now almost equally distributed in the lowest three categories, and the mean is 117 cases.