Research Article
Forecasting Crude Oil Consumption in China Using a Grey Prediction Model with an Optimal Fractional-Order Accumulating Operator
Table 2
The simulation/prediction values and MAPE of the models for China’s crude oil consumption.
(a) |
| Year | Actual value | FSIGM | SIGM | GM | DGM | NDGM | Simulation value | Simulation value | Simulation value | Simulation value | Simulation value |
| In-sample | 2002 | 2.2544 | 2.2544 | 2.2544 | 2.2544 | 2.2544 | 2.2544 | 2003 | 2.4922 | 2.4889 | 2.5374 | 2.6229 | 2.6235 | 2.5374 | 2004 | 2.8749 | 2.8749 | 2.7897 | 2.7941 | 2.7945 | 2.7897 | 2005 | 3.0086 | 3.0305 | 3.0204 | 2.9764 | 2.9766 | 3.0204 | 2006 | 3.2245 | 3.2019 | 3.2314 | 3.1706 | 3.1707 | 3.2313 | 2007 | 3.4032 | 3.3868 | 3.4243 | 3.3774 | 3.3774 | 3.4243 | 2008 | 3.5498 | 3.5848 | 3.6007 | 3.5978 | 3.5975 | 3.6007 | 2009 | 3.8129 | 3.7962 | 3.7620 | 3.8325 | 3.8320 | 3.7260 | MAPE (in) | | 0.4949% | 1.2526% | 1.9179% | 1.9145% | 1.2525% |
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(b) |
| | | Prediction value | Prediction value | Prediction value | Prediction value | Prediction value |
| Out-of-sample | 2010 | 4.2875 | 4.0215 | 3.9094 | 4.0826 | 4.0818 | 3.9095 | 2011 | 4.3966 | 4.2612 | 4.0443 | 4.3490 | 4.3479 | 4.0444 | 2012 | 4.6679 | 4.5160 | 4.1676 | 4.6327 | 4.6313 | 4.1678 | 2013 | 4.8652 | 4.7869 | 4.2804 | 4.9350 | 4.9332 | 4.2806 | 2014 | 5.1547 | 5.0746 | 4.3835 | 5.2569 | 5.2548 | 4.3837 | MAPE (out) | | 3.1401% | 10.9054% | 2.0069% | 9.1817% | 10.9031% |
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