Efficacy of Various Scoring Systems for Predicting the 28-Day Survival Rate among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Requiring Emergency Intensive Care

Table 3

Logistic regression analysis of the four severity-of-disease scoring methods.

	Variable	value	Adjusted OR	95% CI of adjusted OR		AUC
				Lower	Upper
Model I	APACHE II	<0.001	1.526	1.298	1.795	0.899
	Age	0.046	1.071	1.001	1.146
	Coronary heart disease	0.001	11.420	2.779	46.938
	Heart failure	<0.001	16.666	4.293	64.708
Model II	SAPS II	<0.001	1.315	1.195	1.446	0.862
	Coronary heart disease	<0.001	20.018	4.913	98.664
	Heart failure	<0.001	13.408	3.566	50.417
Model III	AGE	0.031	1.067	1.006	1.132	0.661
	Hypertension	0.008	12.810	1.954	83.999
	Heart failure	<0.001	19.187	5.302	69.432
	Fracture keeping in bed	0.040	11.796	1.126	123.588
	GCS scores	<0.001	0.656	0.498	0.865
Model IV	GCS scores	<0.001	0.562	0.434	0.737	0.703
	AGE	0.031	1.067	1.006	1.132
	Heart failure	<0.001	57.591	9.286	359.653
	Tumor	0.017	17.304	2.548	>999
Model V	APACHE II	<0.001	1.316	1.195	1.447	0.884
	SAPS II	<0.001	1.305	1.186	1.435
	Coronary heart disease	<0.001	22.018	4.913	98.664
	Heart failure	<0.001	13.408	3.566	50.417

Model I included age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and GCS and APACHE II scores; Model II included age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and GCS and SAPS II scores; Model III included age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and GCS and SOFA scores; Model IV included age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and GCS and MEDS scores; Model V included age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, GCS and APACHE II scores, and SAPS II; AUC, area under ROC curve; OR, odds ratios; CI, confidence interval.