Business cycle reference dates, in US, since 1970.
Period
Main characteristics
Main causes
Dec. 1969 to Nov. 1970
(i) Followed one of the longest economic expansion in the US history (Feb. 1961 to Dec. 1969) (ii) Relatively mild recession
(i) Fiscal tightening to close the budget deficits of the Vietnam War (ii) Monetary tightening to face the rising inflation
Nov. 1973 to Mar. 1975
(i) Simultaneous increase of inflation and unemployment (ii) Long and deep recession
(i) 1973 oil crisis (ii) Wage and price control policies implemented to mask inflation pressures and fight unemployment (iii) Abnormal long decline in productivity growth (iv) Emergence of newly industrialized countries
Jan. 1980 to Jul. 1980 and Jul. 1981 to Nov. 1982
(i) Conjunction of two recessions, separated by a very short expansion (w-shaped) (ii) Deepest and longest recession in the postwar period
(i) Contractionary monetary policy to control high inflation
Jul. 1990 to Mar. 1991
(i) Hit much of the world—not particularly deep or long
(i) Fed tightened monetary policy (Feb. 1988 to May 1989) to counter a rising inflation rate (ii) Oil price shock after Iraq invaded Kuwait gave momentum to the starting recession (iii) Serious solvency problems among thrift institutions due to savings and loan crisis (iv) Consumer pessimism
Mar. 2001 to Nov. 2001
(i) Ended the longest period of growth in the American history (ii) Predicted by economists for years (iii) Affected all the developed world
(i) Collapse of the speculative dot-com bubble (ii) Fall in business investments (iii) September 11th attacks
Since Dec. 2007
(i) Worst financial crisis since the Great Depression (1930s) (ii) Unprecedented responses by governments and central banks (fiscal stimulus, monetary policy expansion, and institutional bailouts) (iii) Ongoing (iv) Fears of a new w-shaped recession
(i) Collapse of the housing bubble (ii) Financial crisis (iii) Return to tight monetary policy
