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Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2012 (2012), Article ID 591490, 12 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/591490
Research Article

A Novel Short-Range Prediction Model for Railway Track Irregularity

MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory, Beijing Jiaotong University, No. 3 Shang Yuan Cun, Haidian District, Beijing 100044, China

Received 27 August 2012; Revised 12 November 2012; Accepted 15 November 2012

Academic Editor: Wuhong Wang

Copyright © 2012 Peng Xu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

In recent years, with axle loads, train loads, transport volume, and travel speed constantly increasing and railway network steadily lengthening, shortcomings of current maintenance strategies are getting to be noticed from an economical and safety perspective. To overcome the shortcomings, permanent-of-way departments throughout the world have given a considerable attention to an ideal maintenance strategy which is to carry out appropriate maintenances just in time on track locations really requiring maintenance. This strategy is simplified as the condition-based maintenance (CBM) which has attracted attentions of engineers of many industries in the recent 70 years. To implement CBM for track irregularity, there are many issues which need to be addressed. One of them focuses on predicting track irregularity of each day in a future short period. In this paper, based on track irregularity evolution characteristics, a Short-Range Prediction Model was developed to this aim and is abbreviated to TI-SRPM. Performance analysis results for TI-SRPM illustrate that track irregularity amplitude predictions on sampling points by TI-SRPM are very close to their measurements by Track Geometry Car.