Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project
Table 4
Simulation result under different overconfidence coefficient ().
Overconfidence coefficient
Trigger value
Option value
0.05
4.330 × 1011
4.237 × 1011
0.10
4.597 × 1011
4.504 × 1011
0.15
4.776 × 1011
4.683 × 1011
0.20
4.908 × 1011
4.815 × 1011
0.25
5.010 × 1011
4.917 × 1011
0.30
5.092 × 1011
4.999 × 1011
0.35
5.158 × 1011
5.065 × 1011
0.40
5.213 × 1011
5.120 × 1011
0.45
5.260 × 1011
5.167 × 1011
0.50
5.300 × 1011
5.207 × 1011
0.55
5.335 × 1011
5.242 × 1011
0.60
5.366 × 1011
5.273 × 1011
0.65
5.393 × 1011
5.300 × 1011
0.70
5.417 × 1011
5.324 × 1011
0.75
5.439 × 1011
5.346 × 1011
0.80
5.458 × 1011
5.365 × 1011
0.85
5.476 × 1011
5.383 × 1011
0.90
5.492 × 1011
5.399 × 1011
0.95
5.506 × 1011
5.413 × 1011
1.00
5.520 × 1011
5.427 × 1011
Note: when overconfidence coefficient is 1, it means that investment decision-maker bears no overconfidence. Since it has no negative effect on the model, the data has been kept for further illustration.