Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project

Table 6

The comparison of the evaluation results between traditional BS based formula and the proposed model.

Method	Feature	Trigger value 𝑉^∗𝑜	Option value 𝐹(𝑉^∗𝑜)	Investment decision
Traditional BS model	Ignoring investment maker’s overconfidence bias	5.838 × 10^11	5.745 × 10^11	Wait and delay investment
Proposed model (𝜙=0.5)	Incorporating overconfidence into the model	5.073 × 10^11	4.980 × 10^11	Early investment*

Note: *denotes that the evaluation result is compared with the investment decision made through traditional BS approach.