Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project

Table 7

The comparison of the evaluation results between Monte Carlo based model and the proposed model.

Method	Feature	Trigger value 𝑉^∗0	Option value 𝐹(𝑉^∗𝑜)	Investment decision
Monte Carlo based model	Optimal investment timing cannot be obtained	—	5.562 × 10^11	Wait and delay investment
Proposed model (𝜙=0.5)	Optimal investment timing can be obtained	5.073 × 10^11	4.980 × 10^11	Early investment*

Note: *denotes that the evaluation results are compared with the investment decision made through traditional Monte Carlo based approach.