Research Article

Dynamic CGE Model and Simulation Analysis on the Impact of Citizenization of Rural Migrant Workers on the Labor and Capital Markets in China

Table 2

The total employment (% change deviation from baseline).

2011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Total employment0.10 0.25 0.38 0.47 0.54 0.45 0.31 0.18 0.09 0.05

Primary industry0.01 −0.01 −0.11 −0.26 −0.46 −0.72 −0.95 −1.11 −1.20 −1.23

Secondary industry10.19 0.51 0.87 1.21 1.53 1.61 1.54 1.43 1.34 1.26
 MotorVhc0.35 0.81 1.22 1.57 1.86 1.78 1.57 1.39 1.28 1.21
 ElecCommsEqp0.30 0.77 1.30 1.83 2.34 2.49 2.43 2.30 2.17 2.05
 Meters0.21 0.62 1.16 1.76 2.38 2.73 2.84 2.83 2.76 2.67
 ToysSportEqp0.20 0.60 1.13 1.71 2.33 2.68 2.81 2.82 2.77 2.70
 NFerrOre0.16 0.47 0.86 1.26 1.63 1.76 1.69 1.55 1.39 1.25
 ClothesShoes0.16 0.45 0.82 1.23 1.63 1.83 1.87 1.84 1.79 1.75

Tertiary industry0.24 0.62 1.01 1.39 1.75 1.83 1.76 1.68 1.63 1.58
 Real estate 0.45 1.16 1.94 2.73 3.51 3.79 3.77 3.67 3.57 3.46
 Construction0.43 0.95 1.36 1.65 1.84 1.57 1.20 0.94 0.80 0.74
 Insurance0.29 0.79 1.37 1.97 2.57 2.83 2.86 2.82 2.77 2.71
 Tourism0.29 0.74 1.26 1.77 2.25 2.40 2.35 2.22 2.09 1.97
 Health0.27 0.71 1.22 1.75 2.27 2.49 2.52 2.50 2.46 2.43
 Education0.23 0.63 1.10 1.58 2.07 2.30 2.35 2.33 2.31 2.27

1MotorVhc represents automobile manufacturing; ElecCommsEqp represents communications equipment manufacturing; Meters represents instrumentation industry; ToysSportEqp represents toys, sports, and entertainment goods industry; NFerrOre represents non-ferrous metal mining; ClothesShoes represents textile and garment, shoes, and hat manufacturing industry.