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Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 612064, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/612064
Research Article

Structural Analysis and Total Coal Demand Forecast in China

1School of Finance and Economics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China
2International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
3College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
4College of Business, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong
5National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Received 7 March 2014; Accepted 16 May 2014; Published 5 June 2014

Academic Editor: Chuangxia Huang

Copyright © 2014 Qing Zhu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Considering the speedy growth of industrialization and urbanization in China and the continued rise of coal consumption, this paper identifies factors that have impacted coal consumption in 1985–2011. After extracting the core factors, the Bayesian vector autoregressive forecast model is constructed, with variables that include coal consumption, the gross value of industrial output, and the downstream industry output (cement, crude steel, and thermal power). The impulse response function and variance decomposition are applied to portray the dynamic correlations between coal consumption and economic variables. Then for analyzing structural changes of coal consumption, the exponential smoothing model is also established, based on division of seven sectors. The results show that the structure of coal consumption underwent significant changes during the past 30 years. Consumption of both household sector and transport, storage, and post sectors continues to decline; consumption of wholesale and retail trade and hotels and catering services sectors presents a fluctuating and improving trend; and consumption of industry sector is still high. The gross value of industrial output and the downstream industry output have been promoting coal consumption growth for a long time. In 2015 and 2020, total coal demand is expected to reach 2746.27 and 4041.68 million tons of standard coal in China.