Options Procurement Policy for Option Contracts with Supply and Spot Market Uncertainty

<table class="table-group" id="tab1"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td align="left">Demand <svg height="11.175" id="M180" style="vertical-align:-0.0pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 13.775 11.175" width="13.775" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.113)"><path d="M780 372q0 -191 -178 -297q-128 -75 -335 -75h-250l7 27q61 7 77 22t28 76l77 398q11 62 0 76.5t-77 22.5l6 28h292q164 0 258.5 -67.5t94.5 -210.5zM678 375q0 119 -73 180.5t-201 61.5q-62 0 -82 -13q-17 -7 -25 -53l-80 -427q-8 -47 -4 -62t26 -20q24 -6 80 -6
q166 0 262.5 95t96.5 244z" id="x1D437"></path></g>
</svg></td><td align="center"> Spot price <svg height="14.0375" id="M181" style="vertical-align:-3.2316pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.2875 14.0375" width="15.2875" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,8.863)"><path d="M570 304q0 -108 -87 -199q-40 -42 -94.5 -74t-105.5 -43q-41 0 -65 11l-29 -141q-9 -45 -1.5 -58t45.5 -16l26 -2l-5 -29l-241 -10l4 26q51 10 67.5 24t26.5 60l113 520q-54 -20 -89 -41l-7 26q38 28 105 53l11 49q20 25 77 58l8 -7l-17 -77q39 14 102 14q82 0 119 -36
t37 -108zM482 289q0 114 -113 114q-26 0 -66 -7l-70 -327q12 -14 32 -25t39 -11q59 0 118.5 81.5t59.5 174.5z" id="x1D45D"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,10.138,13.838)"><path d="M352 391q0 -31 -27 -44q-14 -7 -24 6q-39 48 -84 48q-23 0 -39.5 -15t-16.5 -40q0 -43 73 -90q49 -32 70 -58t21 -57q0 -58 -62 -105.5t-129 -47.5q-40 0 -75.5 25t-35.5 52q0 28 32 46q7 4 15 3t11 -6q19 -31 48.5 -50.5t54.5 -19.5q34 0 54 19.5t20 42.5q0 43 -65 81
q-97 56 -97 123q0 50 51 96q19 17 58 32.5t62 15.5q37 0 61 -18t24 -39z" id="x1D460"></path></g>
</svg></td><td align="center"> Market liquidity <svg height="7.9499998" id="M182" style="vertical-align:-0.10033pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 13.5375 7.9499998" width="13.5375" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,7.675)"><path d="M766 88q-40 -45 -83.5 -72.5t-63.5 -27.5q-39 0 -16 103l49 224q15 68 -10 68q-36 0 -112.5 -78.5t-105.5 -133.5q-27 -101 -38 -165q-35 -4 -77 -18l-6 6q42 153 70 288q12 55 10 78t-19 23q-38 0 -114 -80.5t-101 -131.5q-24 -68 -41 -165q-36 -3 -76 -18l-8 6
q56 202 87 347q7 33 -3 33q-8 0 -31.5 -17.5t-41.5 -35.5l-12 28q42 45 84 72t63 27q44 0 10 -124l-20 -75h2q92 121 193 178q36 21 64 21q62 0 28 -159l-8 -37h2q50 67 103.5 112t94.5 65q39 19 62 19q60 0 23 -156l-45 -189q-9 -39 2 -39q17 0 71 49z" id="x1D45A"></path></g>
</svg></td><td align="center"> Shortage cost <svg height="7.9499998" id="M183" style="vertical-align:-0.13794pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 6.5 7.9499998" width="6.5" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,7.675)"><path d="M352 391q0 -31 -27 -44q-14 -7 -24 6q-39 48 -84 48q-23 0 -39.5 -15t-16.5 -40q0 -43 73 -90q49 -32 70 -58t21 -57q0 -58 -62 -105.5t-129 -47.5q-40 0 -75.5 25t-35.5 52q0 28 32 46q7 4 15 3t11 -6q19 -31 48.5 -50.5t54.5 -19.5q34 0 54 19.5t20 42.5q0 43 -65 81
q-97 56 -97 123q0 50 51 96q19 17 58 32.5t62 15.5q37 0 61 -18t24 -39z" id="x1D460"></path></g>
</svg></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td align="left"><span style="width: 77.087502px;"><svg height="15.0875" id="M184" style="vertical-align:-2.21957pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 77.087502 15.0875" width="77.087502" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.138)"><path d="M857 650l-6 -28q-44 -4 -61.5 -16.5t-29.5 -48.5q-11 -32 -37 -166l-78 -399h-29l-351 537h-4l-56 -276q-24 -120 -24 -164q0 -35 17.5 -46t75.5 -15l-6 -28h-245l7 28q41 2 62 14t31 44q10 30 41 171l53 245q8 44 6.5 60.5t-14.5 33.5q-10 15 -27 19.5t-64 6.5l6 28h153
l350 -516h5l48 257q25 131 25 171q0 34 -17.5 45t-77.5 15l7 28h240z" id="x1D441"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,14.919,12.138)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,20.801,12.138)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,28.96,12.138)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,37.12,12.138)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,45.279,12.138)"><path d="M95 130q31 0 61 -30t30 -78q0 -53 -38 -87.5t-93 -51.5l-11 29q77 31 77 85q0 26 -17.5 43t-44.5 24q-4 0 -8.5 6.5t-4.5 17.5q0 18 15 30t34 12z" id="x2C"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,54.815,12.138)"><path d="M285 378v-2q65 -13 102 -54.5t37 -97.5q0 -57 -30.5 -104.5t-74 -75t-85.5 -42t-72 -14.5q-31 0 -59.5 11t-40.5 23q-19 18 -16 36q1 16 23 33q13 10 24 0q58 -51 124 -51q55 0 88 40t33 112q0 64 -39 96.5t-88 32.5q-29 0 -64 -11l-6 29q77 25 118 57.5t41 84.5
q0 45 -26.5 69.5t-68.5 24.5q-67 0 -120 -79l-20 20l43 63q51 56 127 56h1q66 0 107 -37t41 -95q0 -42 -31 -71q-22 -23 -68 -54z" id="x33"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,62.975,12.138)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,71.134,12.138)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 60.762501px;"><svg height="15.0875" id="M185" style="vertical-align:-2.21957pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 60.762501 15.0875" width="60.762501" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.138)"><path d="M857 650l-6 -28q-44 -4 -61.5 -16.5t-29.5 -48.5q-11 -32 -37 -166l-78 -399h-29l-351 537h-4l-56 -276q-24 -120 -24 -164q0 -35 17.5 -46t75.5 -15l-6 -28h-245l7 28q41 2 62 14t31 44q10 30 41 171l53 245q8 44 6.5 60.5t-14.5 33.5q-10 15 -27 19.5t-64 6.5l6 28h153
l350 -516h5l48 257q25 131 25 171q0 34 -17.5 45t-77.5 15l7 28h240z" id="x1D441"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,14.919,12.138)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,20.801,12.138)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,28.96,12.138)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,37.12,12.138)"><path d="M95 130q31 0 61 -30t30 -78q0 -53 -38 -87.5t-93 -51.5l-11 29q77 31 77 85q0 26 -17.5 43t-44.5 24q-4 0 -8.5 6.5t-4.5 17.5q0 18 15 30t34 12z" id="x2C"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,46.656,12.138)"><path d="M137 343l67 33q37 17 63 17q79 0 129.5 -53t50.5 -131q0 -92 -58 -156.5t-147 -64.5t-147 68t-58 182q0 63 17 119t43 95.5t61.5 72t69 52t67.5 31.5q62 22 128 33l6 -32q-56 -11 -108 -35q-149 -71 -184 -231zM227 337q-47 0 -95 -27q-6 -23 -6 -70q0 -93 36 -155.5
t96 -62.5q53 0 78 45.5t25 105.5q0 68 -35 116t-99 48z" id="x36"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,54.815,12.138)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 84.837502px;"><svg height="15.0875" id="M186" style="vertical-align:-2.21957pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 84.837502 15.0875" width="84.837502" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.138)"><path d="M857 650l-6 -28q-44 -4 -61.5 -16.5t-29.5 -48.5q-11 -32 -37 -166l-78 -399h-29l-351 537h-4l-56 -276q-24 -120 -24 -164q0 -35 17.5 -46t75.5 -15l-6 -28h-245l7 28q41 2 62 14t31 44q10 30 41 171l53 245q8 44 6.5 60.5t-14.5 33.5q-10 15 -27 19.5t-64 6.5l6 28h153
l350 -516h5l48 257q25 131 25 171q0 34 -17.5 45t-77.5 15l7 28h240z" id="x1D441"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,14.919,12.138)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,20.801,12.138)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,28.96,12.138)"><path d="M113 -12q-24 0 -39.5 16t-15.5 42q0 24 16 40.5t40 16.5t40 -16.5t16 -40.5q0 -26 -16 -42t-41 -16z" id="x2E"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,32.836,12.138)"><path d="M153 550l-26 -186q79 31 111 31q90 0 141.5 -51t51.5 -119q0 -93 -89 -166q-85 -69 -173 -71q-32 0 -61.5 11.5t-41.5 23.5q-18 17 -17 34q2 16 22 33q14 9 26 -1q61 -50 124 -50q60 0 93 43.5t33 104.5q0 69 -41.5 110t-121.5 41q-53 0 -102 -20l38 305h286l6 -8
l-26 -65h-233z" id="x35"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,40.995,12.138)"><path d="M95 130q31 0 61 -30t30 -78q0 -53 -38 -87.5t-93 -51.5l-11 29q77 31 77 85q0 26 -17.5 43t-44.5 24q-4 0 -8.5 6.5t-4.5 17.5q0 18 15 30t34 12z" id="x2C"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,50.532,12.138)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,58.691,12.138)"><path d="M113 -12q-24 0 -39.5 16t-15.5 42q0 24 16 40.5t40 16.5t40 -16.5t16 -40.5q0 -26 -16 -42t-41 -16z" id="x2E"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,62.567,12.138)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,70.726,12.138)"><path d="M153 550l-26 -186q79 31 111 31q90 0 141.5 -51t51.5 -119q0 -93 -89 -166q-85 -69 -173 -71q-32 0 -61.5 11.5t-41.5 23.5q-18 17 -17 34q2 16 22 33q14 9 26 -1q61 -50 124 -50q60 0 93 43.5t33 104.5q0 69 -41.5 110t-121.5 41q-53 0 -102 -20l38 305h286l6 -8
l-26 -65h-233z" id="x35"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,78.886,12.138)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g>
</svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 16.4375px;"><svg height="11.125" id="M187" style="vertical-align:-0.17555pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 16.4375 11.125" width="16.4375" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,10.862)"><path d="M285 378v-2q65 -13 102 -54.5t37 -97.5q0 -57 -30.5 -104.5t-74 -75t-85.5 -42t-72 -14.5q-31 0 -59.5 11t-40.5 23q-19 18 -16 36q1 16 23 33q13 10 24 0q58 -51 124 -51q55 0 88 40t33 112q0 64 -39 96.5t-88 32.5q-29 0 -64 -11l-6 29q77 25 118 57.5t41 84.5
q0 45 -26.5 69.5t-68.5 24.5q-67 0 -120 -79l-20 20l43 63q51 56 127 56h1q66 0 107 -37t41 -95q0 -42 -31 -71q-22 -23 -68 -54z" id="x33"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,8.222,10.862)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g>
</svg></span></td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab1

Table 1

Table 1: Options Procurement Policy for Option Contracts with Supply and Spot Market Uncertainty 